Eyes on Thanksgiving week for a potentially significant storm to impact the Great Lakes and East Coast
All eyes are on next week as millions are expected to travel across the county to celebrate Thanksgiving. Weather models have been hinting at the possibility of a storm system impacting the Great Lakes and East Coast early to mid-next week. While the finer details are still to be ironed out, the larger-scale setup is starting to become clearer. We have been talking about this system in the Supporter Group. Join the Supporter Group today.
A potent upper-level system will dive south and east into the country’s eastern half to start the week of Thanksgiving. The main energy and lift associated with the upper-level system look to reside somewhere near the Great Lakes or Ohio Valley early next week. The track will be ironed out over the coming days. Despite most of the “oomph” with the system being farther north, part of it will extend farther south into the Southeast. This will help pull a cold front into eastern parts of the country along with the possibility of an area of low pressure developing somewhere along or just off the East Coast early to mid next week.
An animated depiction of upper-level weather pattern early to mid next week
The cold front is a certainty but the low pressure is highly questionable and depends on the evolution and track of the aforementioned upper-level system. Regardless, the upper-level system and associated cold front will bring a large area of showers and storms into the eastern half of the country. This includes parts of the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Great Lakes, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. While an isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, a strong risk for severe storms does not look probable at this point. Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group today.
Do notice there will be some wintry precipitation for some areas. The exact areas and amounts are highly questionable at this time, but the most likely areas to see snow are the Great Lakes and Northeast from early to mid next week. It is possible the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic get in on the wintry weather too but this will be ironed out over the coming days. If this system digs a little farther south, and/or if we do get some type of low pressure to develop, it’s possible the cooling associated with the farther south track of the upper-level system or the dynamic cooling with the intensification of a surface low pressure could bring snow farther south so this will be monitored over the coming days as the details become clearer.
An animated simulated radar from early to mid next week
As the system moves east, chilly air will wrap into eastern parts of the country. This colder air will drop temperatures well below average for a good chunk of the week for areas east of the Mississippi River. With this colder air, lake effect snow showers are expected for the eastern and southern shores of the Great Lakes for a good chunk of Thanksgiving week.
Animated temperature departure from average next week
And looking beyond mid-week next week, guidance is suggesting another storm system could develop, taking aim on parts of the Rockies and Southern Plains late next week into the weekend, then possibly moving into the South and Southeast or Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley late Thanksgiving weekend. There are a lot of questions about the evolution of this possible system but it could cause a mess of severe weather and wintry weather.
An animated depiction of upper-level weather pattern late next week
Regardless of the finer details, Thanksgiving week and weekend look hyper-active, which will likely disrupt travel most of Thanksgiving week through the weekend. Keep checking back for updates!
See the latest winter outlooks below.
Read the NOAA Winter Outlook here.
Read the AccuWeather Winter Outlook here.