May 15th marks the first day of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issuing routine tropical outlooks for the Gulf of Mexico, North Atlantic, and Caribbean Sea. The NHC is not expecting tropical cyclone formation during the next five days.
While the NHC is not forecasting any development of tropical cyclones over the next five days, numerical guidance has hinted at the possibility of tropical or subtropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico in about seven days. The chances of this are low, but it is something to keep an eye on for the Gulf States. If a system were to develop, it would likely be unorganized and weak. However, May system can be efficient rain producers. This will be monitored over the coming days so keep checking back for updates.