Tropical Update: Hurricane Newton and Hermine

Tropical Weather is still the major driving topic of conversation despite some snow in the Mountain west, as the Desert Southwest braces for the very rare Tropical Storm.  Hurricane Newton is bearing down on Mainland Mexico after crossing Baja California Sur.  Hermine continues to be a problem for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and much further east in the Atlantic, a new Tropical wave has moved off the African coast and bears watching for development of the 10th Tropical Depression of the Season, which seems possible by the weekend.

Hurricane Newton

Hurricane Newton has gone from the Pacific into the Gulf of California and is moving Northward at about 15 mph.  Hurricane Warnings are up in Mexico from Guymas to Puerto Libertad.  Newton will move through this area and continue north into Arizona.  Tropical Storm conditions are possible in both Arizona and New Mexico as Newton moves north.  Newton is a large cyclone with Tropical Storm force winds extend 230 miles from the center of circulation, and these conditions will affect portions of northwestern Mexico and southeastern Arizona during the next day or so.  While much of the rain will fall in Mexico, 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts is possible in both Arizona and New Mexico as Newton continues inland.  This could create localized flash flood conditions and create very dangerous conditions for mudslides in the mountains.  Newton won’t survive for too long in the dry arid conditions currently seen in the Southeast, and is expected to have dissipated in 36 to 48 hours.

Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine

Hermine, a quickly decaying Post Tropical Cyclone, has once again begun to turn back towards Long Island and is expected to pass the Eastern Tip of the Island later on today.  All Tropical Storm Warnings associated with Hermine have been cancelled as most of the Tropical Storm conditions are now to the South and East of the center of circulation, but Hermine will still bring some gusty winds and rain showers to Southeastern New England and Long Island Wednesday and Thursday as the center passes near Nantucket.  There will be some sunshine mixed into the area, like there was today, as Hermine has ingested large amounts of dry air which is helping to break up the cloud cover some, but as occurred today at my house, the sun can be out one minute and then rain and winds can be there within a matter of minutes.  The NHC is no longer posting information about Hermine on their site, but we at Firsthand Weather will continue to follow the system until she poses no further risk to land.

Tropical Atlantic Update

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean just west of the coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  A low pressure area is expected to form in
association with the wave several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward toward the central Atlantic.

Robert Millette