Memorial Day Forecast

As promised, I have put together a Memorial Day forecast. The map and forecast doesn’t include this weekend, and if you’re wanting to know about this weekend, check out my article from the other day. Hopefully some of you have been able to get out and enjoy some of the cooler weather, because it’s about to warm back up for some of you.

Memorial Day Forecast Map:

Discussion:

Another trough is currently digging into the Southwestern U.S. while a ridge will begin building and amplifying in the eastern third of the nation by Monday. This is the same relentless pattern that has brought cooler temperatures in the Southwest U.S., record-rainfall to the Southern Plains, and warmer/drier weather to the eastern U.S. This is the overall pattern that will be in place on Memorial Day, bringing more of the same weather. There are a couple additional things to point out, however.

Surface high pressure is going to be moving off the East Coast this weekend and will be merging with the Bermuda high in the Atlantic. With the upper-level ridge in place, this should keep things quite warm and reasonably dry along the East Coast on Memorial Day. Isolated storms will still be possible in places.

The Bermuda high pressure will linger close enough to the coast on Monday to pump in low-level moisture across the Southeast states, and this will also bring with it warmer temperatures across the region. The overall flow from the trough out West and ridging over the East Coast will move very moist air all the way up to the Great Lakes. Flooding could definitely be a big issue on Monday across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Any surrounding regions that have already been hit hard with flooding rains should also keep an eye on things.

Surface low pressure will be moving over the Northern Plains in response to the trough currently in place. This will generally keep all of the Plains unsettled, although there could be some exceptions to that in between.

Farther west over the Rockies into the Southwest, it will remain cool. Some places will get rain, but many won’t. The Pacific Northwest will probably end up being the exception in the western U.S. that actually ends up with above average temperatures on Memorial Day.

Again, this forecast is for Memorial Day only and doesn’t include this weekend. I hope everyone has a safe holiday!