More Rain & Flooding For Parts Of The Southeast

It has been very wet across the Southeast over the past few days and more rain is in the forecast. Periodic tropical downpours will occur across the Southeast this evening through tomorrow (Monday). The best chance for flash flooding will occur in northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina, eastern Tennessee and western/central North Carolina on Monday (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Excessive rainfall forecast on Monday (WPC) [Best chance for flooding is in yellow-shaded region]

Late Monday into Tuesday, a cold front will push into the Southeast. Along the cold front, a line of showers and thunderstorms is possible, which could dump brief but heavy rain. Luckily, behind the cold front, drying will take place (see Fig. 2), which will briefly put an end to most shower and thunderstorm activity for a large part of the Southeast (other than coastal areas of the Carolinas/Georgia and Florida where heavy rain may lead to flooding (see Fig. 3)).

Fig. 2: Dry air behind cold front on Tuesday (Tropical Tidbits) [Drier air is represented by the brown colors]

Fig. 3: Excessive rainfall forecast on Tuesday (WPC) [Best chance for flooding is in yellow-shaded region]

The drier airmass behind the cold front will be temporary. On Wednesday, a trough will push into the region (see Fig. 3) allowing a low to develop across northern Florida/southern Georgia. This low will intensify and lift northeast. This will pull Gulf moisture back into the Southeast (see Fig. 4) increasing rain chances for the Southeast Wednesday into Thursday. Some of this rain will be heavy, which will exacerbate the flooding issues in Georgia and the Carolinas on both Wednesday and early Thursday.

Fig. 3: Trough moving into the eastern U.S. early Wednesday (Tropical Tidbits) [Trough is represented by cool-colors moving into Mississippi Valley]

Fig. 4: Moist Gulf air pulled back into Southeast on Wednesday (Tropical Tidbits) [Moist air represented by the yellow and green colors]

Additional rain accumulations of 3-6″ are likely through Thursday for Florida, eastern Georgia, central and eastern South Carolina and much of North Carolina (see Fig. 5).

Fig. 5: Additional rainfall accumulations next 7-days (WPC)

A gradual drying trend will take place from Thursday night into the weekend for the Southeast. Remember, if you come across a road that is covered in water, turn around!