NHC Monitoring Two Areas For Tropical Development
Just wanted to give you all a quick update on the tropical waves discussed earlier this week. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is still monitoring these two areas for possible further development in the tropical Atlantic; Invest 97 and Invest 96.
Two Invests Being Monitored By The NHC
These two tropical waves are moving towards the east and have a 60% (Invest 97) and 20% (Invest 96) chance of development into tropical depressions over the next five days. (The NHC has given a 30% and 20% chance for development during the next two days, respectively). Invest 97, which has the greatest chance of short-term development, is located about 500 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. As this tropical wave moves towards the west, it should begin to encounter favorable environmental conditions for further strengthening–by the time it enters the Caribbean around Tuesday.
The shear is relatively low in this area and the ocean waters are very warm. These tropical waves gain their energy from warm ocean waters, and the ocean heat content is ‘impressive’ in the western and central Caribbean (where Invest 97 appears to track). This means if Invest 97 moves into this region, which looks probable, abundant energy is available for storm intensification.
Ocean Heat Content
Invest 96, located off of the African Coast, does not appear as organized as it was earlier in the week. Environment conditions, at this time, do not appear to favor further or quick strengthening. We will still keep an eye on this system as it moves towards the WNW.
Please note, Invest 97 is a couple days from land, so there’s time to observe the system to determine the extent of impacts for the Lesser Antilles. We will need to keep a close eye on this system to see if it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Any direct impact to the Gulf of Mexico Here is several days out, and a lot can change, so we will continue to update as needed. Here’s the latest (18Z) model track guidance for the invests.
18Z Model Track Guidance (Invest 96)
18Z Model Track Guidance (Invest 97)
We will have updates on development and potential tracks as needed.