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Rain Chances and Cool Front for Southern Plains

It has been hot across much of the Southern Plains over the past couple of weeks due to the persistent upper-level ridge. Rain and thunderstorms have been isolated at best, but that is about to change. Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase for parts of the Southern Plains this upcoming work week. Rain has already begun to increase across parts of western Texas and northern Oklahoma today. This is due to an upper-level low and cold front, respectively.

This cold front will move southward Monday night into Tuesday, generating an area of showers and thunderstorms that will propagate towards the Red River valley. Rain coverage will be about 40% and will continue throughout the day on Tuesday. Most areas will see less than 1″ of rainfall, but a few areas that get under the heavier storms could see a brief 1-3″.
High Resolution NAM rainfall totals

The cold front is very weak, but the forcing associated with this boundary will not only generate storms, but cloud cover, too; which will knock highs down by about 5-10 degrees in some areas.
High Resolution NAM temperatures Tuesday afternoon

Severe weather is not likely, but gusty winds and frequent lighting are possible.

Looking ahead towards the holiday weekend, it appears that the aforementioned upper-level ridge will shift towards the west-northwest. This is good news for the Southern Plains because this sets up a favorable pattern for afternoon and nocturnal thunderstorm complexes to impact the area. This is known as a northwesterly flow, and these patterns can produce very heavy rainfall and, at times, damaging wind events.
Potential rainfall totals over the next seven days