Severe storms & tornadoes are possible Sunday & Monday from the Southern Plains, Deep South, Tennesee Valley, and Central Appalachians

Tracking thunderstorm chances Sunday & Monday as a colder air mass clashes with a spring-like air mass across central & southern parts of the country. The storm chances will gradually shift south & east from late Sunday through Monday as the cold front moves south.

Initially, thunderstorm chances exist from northern Texas & southern Oklahoma east-northeast into Arkansas, southern Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western & northern Tennessee, and western Kentucky Sunday afternoon & evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted this region within a marginal severe risk (dark green)-level 1/5 and a slight severe risk (yellow)-level 2/5. All modes of severe weather are possible within the marginal & slight severe risk areas. This includes tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

Sunday’s severe risk area

While all highlighted areas have a chance to see a tornado on Sunday, the favored areas are from southeastern Oklahoma northeast through Arkansas into southern Missouri. The favored timeframe is Sunday evening into the nighttime hours.

Sunday’s tornado probability area

As the cold front moves south, the severe threat shifts farther south & east on Monday. The areas that could see severe weather on Monday include the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and the central Appalachians. The SPC has highlighted this area within a marginal severe risk (dark green)-level 1/5 and a slight severe risk (yellow)-level 2/5. All modes of severe weather are possible within the marginal & slight severe risk areas. This includes tornadoes, damaging winds, and some hail. Isolated severe storms are possible early in the day Monday but the favored timeframe is during the afternoon and evening hours.

It appears the favored areas to see isolated tornadoes will extend from Mississippi & Alabama, northeast into Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

Monday’s severe risk area

If you live in or around the highlighted areas for severe weather on Sunday & Monday, please make sure you have a couple of reliable sources to receive weather information from and have a plan in place and know what to do if a warning is issued.

Keep checking back for updates!