Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon for parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for northern Texas, southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas (see Fig. 1). An enhanced risk is a level 3 category out of 5 (see Fig. 2), which means numerous severe storms are possible throughout the afternoon & evening hours.
At this hour, a weakening MCS is moving southeast across parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. The cold-pool associated with this MCS is well-intact, however, which will allow new convection to develop along the leading edge this afternoon in northern Texas, southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The main hazard with the new convection will be damaging winds of 60-70mph (see Fig. 3). A few large hail events may occur, too.
Higher impact severe weather is likely farther southwest into northwestern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. In this vicinity, a tipple point will establish during peak afternoon heating. Near the triple point, very large hail (up to softball size) and a few tornadoes are possible (see Fig. 4 & 5). Storms will move east-southeast and organize into a complex–likely producing damaging winds for northern Texas and southern Oklahoma during the evening hours.
The best timing for severe thunderstorms will be from 2:00PM Central until Midnight Central. Make sure you take all watches and warnings seriously this afternoon, as damaging winds are just as dangerous as a tornado. It should be noted the severe threat does exist for all of Arkansas, central Texas, all of Louisiana, western Tennessee and western Mississippi. Main hazard is damaging wind gusts of 60-70mph.
Cities included in the Enhanced Risk: Dallas, TX; Fort Worth, TX; McKinney, TX; Denton, TX; Sherman-Denison, TX; Durant, OK; Ardmore, OK; Little Rock, AR.
Cities included in the Slight Risk: Waco, TX; Shreveport, LA; Memphis, TN.