Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Forecast
A cold front extending from the Great Lakes southwestward into the Plains will move east today and be just off the coast of New England and the Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday morning. Showers and Thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary layer Monday into Monday nightAfter the front moves off shore and departs, conditions will clear and the heat will return throughout the region with another chance of showers and storms on Friday.
|Day 1 Risk||Area (sq. mi.)||Area Pop.||Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area|
|SLIGHT||162,009||21,120,119||Pittsburgh, PA…Rochester, NY…Syracuse, NY…Manchester, NH…|
|MARGINAL||523,786||76,969,862||New York, NY…Philadelphia, PA…Boston, MA…|
Scattered showers and thunderstorms that have brought wind damage and hail to the Ohio Valley will move east today into New England and the Mid-Atlantic region as an upper level trough and its associated cold front shifts east this afternoon. Ahead of the front, a corridor of surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s is in place with an axis of instability developing from Central Ohio across Pennsylvania, New York and into New England. Scattered storms will initiate along this axis around mid-day and several squall lines will move East Southeast across the area this afternoon into tonight. Forecast soundings from overnight from Pittsburgh northeast toward Burlington Vermont show midlevel cape values near 1000 J/KG with high 3 kilometer lapse rates and good low level wind shear profiles.
The wind profile favors the development of persistent line segments with wind damage potential and the potential for some hail. Model forecasts suggest the area of greatest large scale ascent and mid-level flow will be from Northern Pennsylvania into New England. For this reason, the wind damage potential is higher in this area.