Severe weather threatens as a long lived linear mesoscale convective system continues eastward across Lower Michigan, strong heating ahead of the system should result in re-intensification of storms along the leading edge this afternoon.  This system should hold together to cross Lake Erie into Ohio and Pennsylvania before spreading into New England overnight.

By Friday, a belt of moderately strong mid-level flow will move into the northeast ahead of an advancing cold front.  This cold front should reach eastern New England by Friday evening into Friday night and extend westward into the southern Great Lakes region.

Severe weather summary

Scattered severe storms are forecast Friday into Friday night across Eastern New York and New England.  Isolated strong to severe storms are expected through parts of central and western New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania into the southern Great Lakes region.

Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the impact of the ongoing mesoscale convective system as it moves east.  This system is expected to weaken overnight but considerable cloudiness will exist with the systems remnants and those may prevent destabilization in certain areas ahead of the front.  The areas where these clouds are most prevalent are the areas that will see less destabilization.    Models do indicate low level moistening ahead of the cold front with strong southerly flow contributing to the amount of buoyancy that develops in the region.   Strong westerly flow aloft, which will increase with height, will support organized storms.  These may include supercell and a muticellular clusters primarily during the late afternoon and early evening hours.   Wind and hail appear to be the primary threats but a tornado like the one this past week in New Hampshire cannot be ruled out in the most intense storms.  Another article should be out Friday morning to bring you all the latest information.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather