Friday, March 31, 2023 2:34 PM

A severe outbreak with strong, long-track tornadoes likely


A severe thunderstorms outbreak with widespread damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail is likely today and tonight from the Midwest into the Deep South. The strongest storms will have the capability to produce winds as strong as winds in a category 1 hurricane—potentially up to 80 mph, strong long-track tornadoes—EF2+, and very large hail—larger than golf balls.

The Storm Prediction Center has a large severe risk from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast states with many areas along the Mississippi River, from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley, under a moderate (level 4 of 5) severe risk [red].

Today's moderate severe thunderstorm risk

 Today's moderate severe thunderstorm risk

A large enhanced (level 3 of 5) severe risk [orange], slight (level 2 of 5) severe risk [yellow] and a marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk [dark green] from as far west as Texas to as far east as Georgia and North Carolina, north into Wisconsin and Michigan. Numerous large Metro areas are included within the risk, placing tens of millions of people in an elevated severe and tornado today and tonight.

Today's severe thunderstorm outlook and tornado & damaging wind probability

Today's severe risk

Thunderstorm timing

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning near the western side of the severe risk area from Kansas and Missouri, down into parts of Oklahoma and Texas. There are also a few scattered showers in other parts of the severe risk area. The main severe risk starts to unfold by early this afternoon with the severe risk continuing throughout the afternoon, into the evening hours, and continuing overnight.

Severe storms will advance from west to east across the severe risk area throughout the day and night with isolated severe supercell storms developing out ahead of the eastward shifting line of severe storms.

Have a shelter plan in place and know where to get weather warnings from

If you live anywhere in or near the severe risk areas, please have a plan in place. Know where you will shelter if a warning is issued for your area. Also, have a few reliable weather sources to receive accurate, timely severe weather warnings from. It would be wise to go ahead and charge your electronic devices in case you lose power or have to seek shelter without adequate charging options.