Significant Severe Weather Possible (Including Tornadoes) For Dallas-Fort Worth Metro & Central U.S.
Significant severe weather is possible this afternoon from Texas northeastward into southern Illinois. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms in this region (see Fig. 1). The greatest tornado threat appears to be from western Arkansas southwestward through Texoma down into the Dallas-Fort Worth Metro (see Fig. 2).
Fig. 1: Thunderstorm outlook map from SPC
Fig. 2: Tornado probability map from SPC
This afternoon into the evening is when the severe threat for northern Texas, southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas really gets going. Shear is adequate for the region and guidance indicates a few breaks in the cloud-cover after the lunch hour, which will help make the environment more unstable (any prolonged period of sunshine will help aid in more significant severe weather).
Currently (this morning), convection is ongoing across west Texas. This convection will slowly push eastward towards southern Oklahoma/northern Texas late this morning into the early afternoon hours. Through the late morning hours, the main severe threats with this area of convection are damaging winds and large hail. At noon, the area of thunderstorms will be west of I-35 (this is where the more widespread severe threat will be at that hour–see Fig. 3). The area of convection will continue to push east (towards the I-35 corridor) by the early afternoon hours (see Fig. 4). At this time, it appears an isolated tornado threat will increase within the line of storms. Also, ahead of the line of storms, guidance indicates isolated supercells will develop across northern Texas/southern Oklahoma. These storms will likely produce very large hail and tornadoes in northern Texas, southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Fig. 3: Future radar around lunchtime
Fig. 4: Future radar early afternoon
The flash-flood threat is appreciable, too. The Southern Plains have been very wet over the past few weeks so any storm this afternoon will exacerbate flooding.