Southeast Snow

The weather will get interesting for parts of the Southeast tomorrow as a coastal low develops and intensifies off the coast of the Carolinas (see Fig. 1). This surface low will lead to the potential of a brief period of snow for far northeast Georgia and parts of the Carolinas Tuesday morning.

Fig. 1: Coastal low Tuesday morning

Numerical guidance initially struggled with the placement of the surface low (some models showed the low near the coast of South Carolina and other models showed the low well off of the coast). Recently, however, guidance is indicating the low may hug the South Carolina coast, which would be far enough west to wrap in moisture to the Carolinas and possible far northeast Georgia.

As the precipitation develops and rotates into this region tomorrow morning (see Fig. 2), modeled soundings show a very dry surface and chilly temps aloft. This is the perfect setup for evaporational cooling, which will allow the rain to transition to snow after 5:00AM. Accumulations are questionable tomorrow but it does appear slushy accumulations may occur especially in the higher terrain of South Carolina and North Carolina (see Fig. 3).

Fig. 2: Future radar Tuesday morning

Fig. 3: FHW snowfall forecast

By lunchtime, the precipitation should begin to move towards the northeast and temperatures will warm, which will allow the snow to stop by the afternoon for this region.