Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue across much of Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle over the next few days. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the Southern Plains this evening, but more widespread activity is expected to develop in eastern Colorado/western Kansas and propagate towards northern Oklahoma tonight into early Thursday.
By Thursday evening a weak cool front will advance into Kansas and north of I-40 (in Oklahoma) by Friday morning. This boundary will be the focus for several rounds of showers and storms for Kansas as well as northern and central Oklahoma. Heavy rainfall is likely during this setup; most areas north of I-40 will see 1-2″ with isolated 3-6″ possible. This could create flash flooding for localized areas during the day on Friday. Isolated damaging winds and large hail is possible with any storm over the next few days, and lightning will be a major concern for those who have outdoor plans.
Potential Rainfall Totals (Next 5 Days)
It is important to note that the area will see a northerly flow aloft, so some of the thunderstorms that develop in northern/central Oklahoma may move further south than the models indicate. This will keep scattered rain chances in the forecast for southern Oklahoma as well as northern Texas, but the greatest coverage will be north of I-40.
Rain chances will subside for northern Texas and much of Oklahoma on Saturday, but appear to return later in the weekend. These rain chances will be bumped up a few notches on Sunday into Monday due to the upper-level ridge weakening. Temperatures will top out in the 80’s and 90’s the rest of this week so make sure you’re staying hydrated! I’ll have more details on the Monday (4th of July) forecast in the next day or two.