Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, April 25th

While the forecast for today brings a wide mix of news, the real weather stories remain the flooding in Texas and the Tuesday Severe Weather Threat.  For Texas, The Cypress Creek and Colorado River have dropped below flood stage but the majority of rivers in the area remain at or above the minimum flood stage, with the San Bernard River still in Major Flood stage.  These conditions are forecast to crest in the last of these areas over the next 2 days before diminishing completely.

For Tuesday, there remains a Significant risk of Severe Weather with the Storm Prediction Center adding a region of Moderate risk to the map.  There is a good chance that an area of High Risk will be added by tomorrow.   For a quick outline and maps of the event, please read down and see our Severe Weather Section, additional information will be posted Monday afternoon.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A developing upper-level low over the Great Basin will move eastward to the Central Rockies by Tuesday evening as weakening low pressure over Upper Midwest and it’s associated front will merge with the storm coming out of the Great Basin by Tuesday morning. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley.  This system will expand into parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Monday evening.  Rain will also develop over parts of the Northern High Plains and Northern Plains on Monday morning continuing through Monday night.  Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Western Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast into the Southern Appalachians on Monday afternoon into evening.

Additionally, the showers and thunderstorms that will move into parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday morning will extend from the Mid-Atlantic westward to the Western Ohio Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday evening. Rain will also develop over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into New England overnight Monday ending over the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday afternoon.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

On early Monday, A strong but weakening low pressure system will bring rain from the Great Lakes over through North Dakota with rain and snow in Montana, as well as rain along the accompanying cold front from Minnesota down into Kansas and Oklahoma. Thunderstorms have been present with the front overnight Sunday and the risk of severe weather will continue moving east with the front as it heads toward Chicago.

Another low pressure system over Southern Nevada will create an area of instability over the Rockies which will lead to valley rains and mountain snows. Several inches of snow can be expected in the higher elevations, especially over Northern California and Nevada.

In the Eastern portion of the Country, high pressure dominates for a generally warm and clear day with some air mass showers and thunderstorms possible across the Southeast and later in the day in the Northeast as the aforementioned storm moves east over the Lakes.

18 hour model

By Monday afternoon, low pressure slides east over Minnesota and begins bringing rain to Western New York along the warm front. Rain will continue through the Great Lakes region back through North Dakota and Montana with some areas of snow changing to rain during the day.

The low pressure over the Rockies intensifys some and will bring a larger area of snow to the Mountains in Nevada.

The high pressure over the Atlantic will slide South off the Carolinas helping with daytime heating and airmass showers and thunderstorms over Florida and Georgia.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, the forecast calls for low pressure from the Lakes will shift east to New England as cold air slides south.  This could bring moderate snow to areas north of a line from Watertown New York to Portsmouth New Hampshire.  This line will fluctuate along elevations and will shift as the system moves east.

The low over the Rockies begins to eject out into the Plains over Colorado and the snow will shift east with it over Wyoming and portions of Colorado. Rain will fall down elevation on the Plains from Wyoming through South Dakota and Nebraska.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Critical Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 94,520 5,231,602 Phoenix, AZ…Albuquerque, NM…Mesa, AZ…Glendale, AZ…Chandler, AZ…

A strong mid-level disturbance will amplify over the Intermountain West today, and is forecast to spread strong mid-level flow into the Four Corners region. The Dryline will mark the dividing line between warm and windy conditions and the moistening air to the East.

Surface winds will strengthen area wide beginning late this morning with gusts as high as 60 MPH expected. 2 Critical areas have been delineated on the map in this outlook.  These are the regions that high winds will combine with the lowest Relative Humidity values under 15% over dry fuel beds.

Today’s Severe Weather Outlook

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 29,335 13,108,281 Chicago, IL…Milwaukee, WI…Madison, WI…Aurora, IL…Rockford, IL…
MARGINAL 123,442 12,941,350 Detroit, MI…Grand Rapids, MI…Warren, MI…Sterling Heights, MI…Topeka, KS…

Severe Weather Analysis

SUMMARY

A few strong to severe storms are expected from a portion of the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes area with a threat for large hail and damaging winds this afternoon and evening. Other strong storms are expected across a portion of the Central High Plains this evening and Northeastern Kansas tonight

 

Analysis

A weakening shortwave trough currently over the Central and Northern Plains is forecast to shift into the Great Lakes. A stalled cold front will extend from Wisconsin southward to Kansas and will impact the warm sector where daytime heating will warm the boundary layer this afternoon.  Storms are expected to redevelop this afternoon from Southern Wisconsin to Northern Illinois.  Wind shear will be sufficient for a few supercells with large hail and damaging winds as the primary threats before activity weakens after sunset.

West of there, as the warm front develops along with the low that is moving out of the Rockies, moist flow will return to the Central Plains. This moisture will allow a few storms to initiate in the upslope flow along the Rockies.  High based supercells capable of downburst winds and large hail are likely across Western Nebraska continuing into the night.  Eastern portions on Nebraska and Kansas will be impacted by the same set up and high based thunderstorms with hail are possible.

Looking forward to Tuesday, as predicted here, a moderate risk for severe weather has been added. Significant severe weather is expected over the Plains.  Any and all preparations you need to make should be completed by tonight.

Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook

day 2 severe

Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 175,496 17,072,997 San Antonio, TX…Dallas, TX…Austin, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Oklahoma City, OK…
MODERATE 55,875 3,058,241 Oklahoma City, OK…Wichita, KS…Norman, OK…Edmond, OK…Midwest City, OK…
ENHANCED 79,794 9,650,655 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Tulsa, OK…Arlington, TX…Plano, TX…
SLIGHT 136,890 11,357,501 San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Kansas City, MO…Omaha, NE…Overland Park, KS…
MARGINAL 211,757 32,736,160 Philadelphia, PA…Baltimore, MD…Washington, DC…Cincinnati, OH…Lexington-Fayette, KY…
Significant Severe Thunderstorms are forecast across parts of the Southern and Central Plains Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Strong, long lived Tornadoes are possible in addition to very large, and potentially giant, hail and strong damaging straight line winds.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Saturday, April 23rd

The forecast for river heights in Texas looks better than in days past as many rivers continue to fall out of major flood stage.  While some rain is expected in the area later this week water levels should have decreased by then.  The real story during this week is the chance for a major severe weather outbreak centering around Oklahoma and Kansas.  We will continue to monitor this situation as it unfolds and have all the details for you over the coming days.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

An upper-level low over the Great Basin is forecast to move eastward to the Northern Plains by Sunday evening. The system will produce rain with embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains that will expand into parts of the Central/Southern Rockies by Saturday evening.   Overnight Saturday, a region of rain and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Plains that will move into the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning.  By Sunday evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley.  Rain and highest elevation snow will develop over parts of the Great Basin/Central Rockies on Saturday morning into parts of the Northern Rockies by Saturday evening.  Rain and highest elevation snow will continue over the Northern/Central Rockies through Sunday evening.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

The middle of the country is taking some time to dry out this morning and will be able to do so for the weekend. While many of the rivers and streams have begun to drop back below flood stage, major flooding is still a concern for some locations as the flood waters move down stream.

Wet weather will begin the day along the East Coast with showers and a few embedded thunderstorms early this morning taking place along a frontal boundary. High pressure moves in from the North to push it all so temperatures won’t quite be as warm to begin the day.

On the West Coast, Southern California remains dry while the Pacific Northwest gets rain and snow showers and could pick up some decent snowfalls in the Northern Mountains of California.

18 hour model

By Saturday afternoon, rain along the East Coast is mostly off shore with some excpetions in Eastern New England, along the DelMarVa and the Outer Banks. High pressure moves in over the Great Lakes and takes control of most of the area.

A Low pressure system moving over the Northern Rockies will bring some Valley rains and mountain snows From Nevada and Utah north into Montana.

The rest of the country should remain relatively dry.

36 hour model

By early Sunday, the system in the Plains over South Dakota begins to strengthen and expand bringing rain and snow from Eastern Idaho to Michigan and as far South as Nebraska.  Some daytime heating showers will pop up over Southern Texas as the next Low pressure system bring rain and snow to the Pacific Northwest as it moves southeast from Canada.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 127,641 593,807 Rapid City, SD…Garden City, KS…North Platte, NE…Pierre, SD…Lexington, NE…

Severe Weather Analysis

SUMMARY

Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are forecast across the Northern and Central Plains Saturday evening.

Analysis

Early morning water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level trough over Nevada. This trough will move over Western Wyoming before reaching the High Plains by daybreak Sunday morning. Low level moisture will begin to advance northward across the Plains as dewpoints rise into the 50s.    It is expected that strong heating along the boundary layer will allows surface parcels to reach their convective temperatures late this afternoon.  Isolated thunderstorms should develop along the lee trough and Dryline, aided by the approaching trough.  Gusty winds and marginally severe hail will be the greatest risk until well after nightfall.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Wednesday April 20th

The Forecast calls for Strong the severe thunderstorms continue across Texas though the Severe Thunderstorm watch that was in effect over night has now expired.  Another round of severe weather is expected today.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

The system that brought widespread heavy precipitation flooding to portions of the southern and central plains will slowly track to the east through the end of the week. Showers and thunderstorms will persist for much of the southern/central plains and portions of the western Gulf Coast today before expanding into the Midwest and Upper Midwest by tonight into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. Some of the storms that develop in northern Texas could become severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for portions of the Texas today. Locally heavy rain will be also possible, which may result in flash flooding for some areas. An excessive rainfall outlook have been issued for portions of the southern plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley today.

Excessive rainfall

Warm conditions will continue for most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into the region by Thursday afternoon/evening ahead of the advancing system. Most of eastern third of the CONUS will have widespread precipitation by Friday morning.

A vast portion of the West will also remain relatively dry with well-above normal temperatures. High pressure at the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere will help to keep coverage of precipitation scattered, and will also keep high temperatures 10 to 25 degrees above average today and Thursday. More widespread showers are forecast to begin spreading into the coastal Northwest by late Thursday as a Pacific frontal boundary approaches. Snow is forecast for Sierras – highest elevations could have snow accumulations near 10 inches.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model Forecast

Rain in the Houston area will have ended for this morning but heavy rains outside the Dallas region will continue to exacerbate conditions there. Those heavy rains will extend up into Oklahoma and Kansas with some lighter rain into Missouri and Nebraska this morning.

Mountain snow will continue in the Rockies though warmer temperatures may turn some of that precipitation to rain, especially near Western Wyoming and Eastern Utah.

Some rain showers will prevail over Northern California and Southern Oregon as a weak and relatively dry low pressure system moves over the Pacific Northwest but the Southwest looks to remain dry.

In the Northeast, rain and snow showers begin the day while the rest of the East Coast looks dry.18 hour model

By Wednesday afternoon, the heaviest rain will be near the Dallas area as rain moves back into the Houston area. Rain will extend from New Orleans up along the Mississippi River toward the Iowa Minnesota border.

36 hour model

By early Thursday, the system in the Plains, wrapping up over Wisconsin, continues to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the Plains while the snow in the Rockies finally winds down as high pressure develops.  The Coastlines remain clear and dry under the influence of high pressure with only a break away batch of showers moving through the Northwest.

 

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 31,502 643,776 Lubbock, TX…Amarillo, TX…Abilene, TX…Plainview, TX…Canyon, TX…
MARGINAL 173,869 18,399,608 Houston, TX…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Portland, OR…Shreveport, LA…

Severe Weather Analysis

SUMMARY

A threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of Texas, the ArkLaTex region and in the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and evening.

Analysis

For Northwest Texas, meteorological conditions remain in place for another round of late day supercells forming into a mesoscale convective system(MCS) slightly further north than Tuesday’s storms. Diurnal destabilization will occur along the edge of a moisture plume over the Planes from the Panhandle to Souther Plains of West Texas.  Convergence along the Dryline should increase during the late afternoon as vorticity moves through Kansas.  Isolated convection should form over the Panhandle and head southeast as it forms the MCS with the risk for hail and severe winds lasting into the overnight hours.

The risk in Eastern Texas into Louisiana and Arkansas is due to the current MCS which is slowly beginning to decay. Current strong to severe thunderstorms will weaken as the morning progresses but scattered convection will remain through the day along the outflow boundary.  Dewpoints in the upper 60s mean we have very moist air ahead of the boundary which could aid in development but the favorable mid-level flow remains over the Ozark Plateau.  While severe storms could develop, the set up appears marginal for wind and hail.

In the Pacific Northwest, a weakening shortwave trough will have a confined belt of southerly winds that overspreads the Cascades during the hours of peak heating. Despite weak buoyancy rates, steep lapse rates should support an isolated severe hail and wind risk.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Flood Outlook and Forecast: Tuesday, April 19th

Flood risks remain for the Texas area which has been hard hit already.  Additional rain can be expected in this area over the next couple of days.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A cutoff upper-level low with an associated quasi-stationary front from the Midwest to the southern plains will continue to generate numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. Excessive rainfall has already caused significant flooding issues in Texas – the threat will slowly decrease through the day as the area of higher precipitation expands eastward into the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys. Flash flooding concerns will be elevated for east Texas to southern Illinois/Indiana. The model output for total rainfall through Wednesday night can be seen here.

total qpf

Additionally, the mountain snow in Colorado and Wyoming will taper off as the area as the position of the upper low and surface front shifts eastward. The system is forecast to begin a slow eastward movement by Wednesday afternoon and evening, when showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states will continue to have pleasantly warm and dry conditions through midweek. Afternoon high temperatures are forecast to be near or above average for mid-April. A vast portion of the West will also remain relatively dry with well-above normal temperatures. Many locations will have afternoon highs ranging 15 to 25 degrees above average through Wednesday.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

The chance for flooding continues to increase on top of the flooding already in place as the rain continues to fall along a slow moving boundary in the Plains. The Houston area has already seen an incredible amount of rainfall with this system and several local rivers are in major flood stage at this time.  While the rain does taper off slightly in this region, reducing itself to showers, another inch or two should be expected through Thursday.

In the Rockies, areas of heavy snow continue from Northern New Mexico up into Wyoming in the mountains, which can expect several more inches throughout the day before things begin to taper off. While the snow does continue its total coverage area continues to shrink.

For both coasts, another beautiful day can be expected with the exception of the Northeast, which will see some rain quickly move through.

18 hour model

By Tuesdayday afternoon, with the heaviest rain from Houston up to the Lake Charles Louisiana area on into Mississippi, and area of which can be seen bounded in the Excessive Rainfall outlook, below.

Excessive rainfall

The system that brought all the rain is breaking apart as seen on the model image and precipitation is scattered all across the Plains regions.

A backdoor cold front will hit the Northeast and start to drop the temperature as a low pressure system slides off the coastline.  Rain should still be falling in parts of Maine but it should end before the day is over.

36 hour model

By early Wednesday, the system in the Plains, now reforming in this model image, continues to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the Plains while the snow in the Rockies continues to wind down as high pressure develops.  This precipitation will only make the flood situation in Texas worse.  The Coastlines remain clear and dry under the influence of high pressure with only a break away batch of showers moving through the Northeast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 80,229 1,476,846 Lubbock, TX…Abilene, TX…Wichita Falls, TX…Midland, TX…Odessa, TX…

Severe Weather Analysis

SUMMARY

Isolated Severe storms will form across parts of West Texas in the late afternoon and evening. Hail and Wind should be the primary threats

Analysis

Surface dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s are prevalent across much of Central and Western Texas. While response should be weak ahead of the approaching mid-level impulse, boundary layer moisture will change little through this evening.  Instability in this region will be driven heavily by the amount of day time heating which currently differs greatly from model to model, so overall confidence in this forecast is lower than usual.

The reason for this is a large deck of stratus that remains from earlier rainfall which will help limit the amount of sun. Models have widely differing results for this cloud cover except for good agreement near the Dryline where substantial heating will occur.

Deep sheer is not going to be overly robust, but enhancement to the mid-level westerlies is expected as the impulse approaches the area and be strong enough for there to be a risk of multicell cluster splitting of supercells.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook: Monday, April 18th

Forecast calls for additional heavy rain as several rivers begin to approach flood stage in Texas and Oklahoma.  Heavy snow will again fall in the Rockies with a few more inches expected while another nice day is in store for the east and west coasts.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A nearly stationary front associated with a deep upper-level low will be draped from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region southward through the central and southern plains. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico streaming in ahead of the front will fuel the atmosphere for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may turn severe therefore the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for portions of the southern Plains today. Heavy rainfall is expected with this weather pattern. Texas will be the most likely area for high rainfall rates over the next couple of days. Southeast Texas has a high risk for flash flooding today, with slight to moderate risk for much of central/eastern Texas and Oklahoma through Wednesday morning. Multi-day accumulations of 3 to 8 inches is forecast from the Ark-La-Tex border to the western Gulf Coast – the highest amounts will be in the vicinity of Galveston, Texas.

The showers and thunderstorms will spread into parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley into Tuesday, as well as, rain developing along and near the boundary over parts of the central and northern plains. Higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies through Tuesday with accumulations up to 1 foot at the highest elevations of Colorado and Wyoming.

A cold front will slowly sink through the Northeast and into the Mid-Atlantic region by midweek. Rain will develop along the boundary over the Upper Mississippi Valley and expand into the Upper Great Lakes today. The rain will move into parts of Northern New England moving into parts of the Northern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday.  A few embedded thunderstorms may develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and parts of the Middle Missouri Valley this afternoon and evening.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

The chance for flooding continues to increase on top of the flooding already in place as the rain continues to fall along a slow moving boundary. Heavy rain continues to pour down from Southern Texas up into the Dakotas though most of the flooding rains are confined to areas near and South of the Red River.  Rivers in these locations are already entering their action stages and several are expected to reach their flood stages over the next few days.

In the Rockies, areas of heavy snow continue from Northern New Mexico up into Wyoming in the mountains, which can expect several more inches throughout the day.

For both coasts, another beautiful day can be expected.

18 hour model

By Monday afternoon, rain continues to fall in the Plains and the snow begins to slowly taper off location by location as the boundary pushes east towards the Mississippi River Valley. Dry conditions continue along both coastlines as high pressure dominates.  Here is a look at the excessive rainfall expectation for through this afternoon.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, the system in the Plains continues to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the Plains while the snow in the Rockies begins to wind down as high pressure develops.  The Coastlines remain clear and dry under the influence of high pressure with only a break away batch of showers moving through the Northeast.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

No elevated fire risk areas are forecast.

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Isolated Strong to Severe Thunderstorms will form across South and Southeast Texas through the mid evening.

Severe Forecast

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 34,586 2,257,881 Corpus Christi, TX…Laredo, TX…Brownsville, TX…Harlingen, TX…Victoria, TX…
MARGINAL 44,274 9,995,879 Houston, TX…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Pasadena, TX…Beaumont, TX…

***Analysis***

Multiple areas of thunderstorms are ongoing at this hour across Southeast Texas and the Upper Coast area where heavy rainfall is being produced by a mesoscale convective system. This system is forecast to move east into parts of Western Louisiana later today into overnight.  While forcing in general is weak in this location, the cold pool from this convective system could help to produce a few wet downbursts and some strong winds

Across the Deep South of Texas, Dewpoints are rising into the 60s and 70s and daytime heating between the cloud breaks will allow for redevelopment of storms along and ahead of the front near the remnant outflows. Low level winds should be sufficient for organized multicell clusters and a few supercells that may produce large hail.  It is possible that storms merge and move forward in a southeastward direction and bring the hail and wind risk towards the Lower Texas Coast this evening.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

storm reports 2

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook for Sunday, April 17th

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues in Texas from Abilene down to Junction.  Severe weather will continue to be a problem across Eastern Texas today with hail and a few tornadoes as the primary threats.  In the Rockies, heavy snow will fall with Winter Storm Warnings posted for much of Colorado and Southeastern Wyoming.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A deep upper-level low pressure system will remain stalled over the central Plains through midweek. Scattered showers are forecast from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast as a cold front sags southward out of Canada. Widespread precipitation will develop along and ahead of the nearly stationary boundary as Gulf moisture streams northward. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and again on Monday across portions of Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a portion of the southern plains with a slight risk for both days. Heavy rain will be likely, therefore the risk for flash and river flooding will be elevated. Excessive rainfall outlooks have issued for portions of the southern and central plains east of the Front Range.

In addition, snow will develop over parts of the Central Rockies and parts of the Northern/Central High Plains through Monday. At times higher elevation snow and lower elevation rain will develop over parts of the Southern Rockies through Monday. Mountain snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated higher amounts are forecast through midweek. Lower elevations will generally have amounts less than 6 inches.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida through tonight along a dissipating front over Southern Florida.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

A very slow moving system over the Great Plains is bringing plenty of strong thunderstorms and flooding rain to the area over the next couple of days. Severe Thunderstorm Watches remain in effect from last night for parts of Texas

. watches

Very heavy rains are falling as part of this system and Flash Flood thresholds are at risk of being met from Nebraska down through Texas with longer term river flooding becoming more of a risk from Kansas down through Texas. Flood risks will increase as time goes on in this region.

In Colorado and Wyoming, heavy snow continues to fall. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for most of Colorado including the Denver area as well as parts of Southwestern Wyoming.  More than a half a foot of snow is expected throughout much of the region with some areas expected to see more than a foot.

The East Coast remains dry with very dry air in the Northeast and the Pacific coast also remains dry with warm conditions.18 hour model

By Sunday afternoon, rain continues to fall in the Plains and the snow begins to shift more towards Wyoming though areas of heavy snow will remain in Colorado.  Dry conditions continue along both coastlines as high pressure dominates.  Here is a look at the excessive rainfall expectation for through this afternoon.

Excessive rainfall

36 hour model

By early Monday, the system in the Plains continues to bring heavy rain and severe weather to the Plains while the snow in the Rockies begins to wind down.  The Coastlines remain clear and dry under the influence of high pressure.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Sustained Southwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH along with minimum Relative humidity percentages between 10 and 15% are anticipated to bring Critical Meteorological Fire Conditions into Southeastern New Mexico and portions of Extreme Western Texas and the Texas Panhandle. The Panhandle region will likely remain beneath critical risk for fire due to fuels across the region being wet from recent rainfall over the last 24 hours.

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 77,396 11,398,359 Houston, TX…San Antonio, TX…Austin, TX…Corpus Christi, TX…Pasadena, TX…
MARGINAL 60,623 9,181,026 Dallas, TX…Fort Worth, TX…Arlington, TX…Plano, TX…Garland, TX…

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Isolated to Widely Scattered Severe Thunderstorms are expected across portions of Texas and Oklahoma today and tonight.

***Analysis***

Slow eastward moving convection is ongoing this morning from South Central Oklahoma to North Central Texas and the Central Texas Hill Country. These storms are expected to re-intensify this afternoon as moist low level flow aids in overcoming a weak cap over the area, especially across South Central and East Central Texas.

Middle to upper 60s for Dewpoints should be in place across much of the area and will contribute to moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE).  Hail will be the primary concern early in the day but a few tornadoes and severe wind will become more prevalent as multiple convective cluster begin to redevelop later in the day.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

Storm Reports

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook for Wednesday, April 13th

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch continues for Southeastern Texas until 6 AM EDT as Strong to severe thunderstorms spread east.

The current Surface Analysis

 

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A cold front cleared most of the East Coast Tuesday evening and has ushered in slightly cooler conditions for the middle of the week. Surface high pressure has settled in behind this front and sunny to partly cloudy skies will be the rule through the rest of the week for much of the eastern U.S. since the overall weather pattern is not expected to change much.  Overall, a very pleasant week albeit on the cool side.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast near the Gulf Coast through Thursday with a stationary front near the coast along with a weak disturbance aloft. Conditions will be favorable for heavy rainfall along with some strong thunderstorms, especially on Wednesday, with the best concentration from southern Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.  A few inches of rainfall is possible for some areas, and flooding remains a localized concern.  However, less in the way of severe thunderstorm coverage is expected compared to earlier in the week.

Across the western U.S., numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies for the middle of the week, with the greatest rainfall totals expected from northern California to western Washington as a weakening Pacific storm system makes its way onshore, with snow likely at the highest elevations.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

The cold front in the East pulls fully off shore and begins to allow for some breaks in the cloud cover over the East coast. A cold high pressure system continues to shift east from the Great Lakes and that will reduce the temperatures in the Northeast as they struggle to get out of the 40s.

Gulf moisture will continue to produce heavy rains in southern Texas as the squall line currently in place remains under a severe thunderstorm watch box. This heavy rain activity should continue for the next few days in the Gulf Coast region.

Further west, instability remains during the overnight and morning hours over the Rockies, rain and snow showers are expected from New Mexico up through Montana. Another wave of rain moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest bringing rain to the valleys and snow to the mountains in what remains a long line of weak low pressure systems coming on shore.

18 hour model

By Wednesday afternoon, A cold front from the low pressure in Canada will create snow  and rain throughout Idaho and Western Montana before shifting east overnight. Gulf moisture will continue to move onshore in Texas and Louisiana and create tropical downpours for significant rainfall.  Flooding will begin to be a risk in these areas during the week as seen below.

Excessive rainfall

36 hour model

By early Thursday, The remnants of the cold front over the south will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms from Louisiana to Florida and Georgia. While high pressure will dominate most of the country, a cold front from a low in Canada will create some shower activity in the Dakotas while a Low pressure system moves onshore in the Pacific Northwest bringing heavy rain to the coastline with snow in the mountains.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Severe storms are not expected today.

***Analysis***

Convection across South Central Texas will continue toward the coastline and eventually spread across Southern Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico later this morning. Any lingering severe threat after tonight will likely be offshore over gulf waters, where a better combination of instability and shear profiles exist.  Destabilization over land is expected to be weak at this time and when combined with weak low level flow, the severe threat over Louisiana appears very limited

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

Storm Reports

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

Forecast and Severe Outlook for Tuesday, April 12th

 

Despite hundreds of severe weather reports, early indications are that the last 2 days have not had a confirmed tornado.  That trend looks to continue today as a cold front brings rain to the East Coast and the severe weather risk across South Texas presents low risk for Tornadic activity.

The current Surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

After a brief warm-up on Monday for much of the eastern U.S., a cold front is forecast to reach the coast by Tuesday evening and bring a return to slightly cooler conditions for the middle of the week. The cool-down behind this boundary will not be as significant as the last cold front that brought the widespread sub-freezing temperatures for overnight lows.  Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front on Tuesday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the southern portion of the cold front near the Gulf Coast, especially on Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable for heavy rainfall along with scattered thunderstorms through Tuesday evening, with the best concentration over southern Texas to the Florida panhandle.  A few inches of rainfall is possible for some areas, and flooding remains a localized concern.  However, less in the way of severe thunderstorm coverage is expected compared to Monday.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from the Pacific Northwest to the central Rockies for the middle of the week, with the greatest rainfall totals expected near the Oregon and Washington coasts as a Pacific storm system makes its way onshore, with snow likely at the highest elevations.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

High pressure has moved off the East coast and been replaced by a cold front that will bring rain into the coastal plain during the day on Tuesday. This cold front will also be the impetus behind the slight risk of severe weather across Mississippi and Alabama early this morning.

For the Northern and Central Plains, a cold high pressure system continues to move south form Canada bringing dry but cold weather while the instability that has created spot showers and snow showers across the Rockies out to the West Coast remains in place and the showers are again expected early in the day.

18 hour model

By Tuesday afternoon, the cold front is moving east with severe threat finally diminishing with only a slight risk in portion of Texas.  Some snow may fall in the high elevations and extreme northenrn regions on New England as the cold high pushes into the Great Lakes region.  Low pressure moving down into Eastern Montana from Canada will continue to generate instability out west leading to additional showers in the area while day time heating driven showers and thunderstorms will occur across New Mexico and Western and Central Texas.

36 hour model

By early Wednesday, The cold front has moved off the coast and taken the precipitation with it ,leaving only cold air in its wake for the Northeast. The cold high will move rapidly back up into Canada and be well north of Toronto by Wednesday morning.  An area of rain and thunderstorms over Eastern Texas and Louisiana will occur as an overnight convective complex shifts east.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 12,266 218,750 Laredo, TX…Del Rio, TX…Uvalde, TX…Hondo, TX…
MARGINAL 39,482 6,594,661 Houston, TX…San Antonio, TX…Pasadena, TX…Sugar Land, TX…Missouri City, TX…

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Severe Thunderstorms are likely across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas into parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Western Mississippi today and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are all possible.

***Analysis***

Isolated showers and thunderstorms should occur by early afternoon due to the moistening upslope return frlow in the vicinity of Big Bend Area in Texas. Stronger forcing will overspread the region from the west, isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain in Mexico and shift eastward across the Rio Grande during the evening.  Additional severe storms may occur in the area near the remnant of the cold front that continues to pull east near the Atlantic coast.

This activity should collectively shift eastward across the Edwards Plateau through the night. Conditions will intitially allow for supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds within the strongest cells.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

Storm Reports

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

Forecast and Severe Outlook; Sunday, April 10th

Severe weather continues early this morning as Severe Thunderstorms continue to be produced by a convective complex of storms moving over Oklahoma.  This system will produce additional severe weather over a region from East Texas into Mississippi later today as it continues to move east.

The current Surface Analysis

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Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

Warmer temperatures are arriving for the East Coast to start out the work week after the recent cold snap. The surface high pressure area that was over the eastern seaboard is now moving offshore and southerly flow on the backside of this high has commenced, thus advecting warmer weather northward.  By Tuesday, a cold front is forecast to reach the East Coast, but the cool-down behind this boundary will not be as significant as the last cold front.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the advancing cold front from the southern Plains to the Midwest. Conditions will be favorable for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to develop through Monday evening, with the best concentration over Texas and Oklahoma. The area of concern on Tuesday will be closer to the Gulf Coast, but less in the way of severe thunderstorm coverage compared to Monday.  Heavy rainfall is also expected with these storms with Risk of 1 to 6 hour rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance in the following areas

Excessive rainfall

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely from California to the Rockies for early in the week, with the greatest rainfall totals expected near the windward sides of the major mountain ranges; with snow likely at the highest elevations. Much of this activity should be diurnally driven with the greatest activity during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

While high pressure off the east coast will begin to finally send some warmer air into the Northeast, another low pressure system in Canada will work its way east and bring some snow and rain to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic regions this morning.

Severe weather is expected along the cold front trailing back into Texas as another low pressure system begins to develop along the front near the Texas panhandle. Severe storms continued overnight in portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri.

Further west, a weak broad low over the Rockies will continue to generate instability in the region and cause showers and snow showers from the Four Corners region over to the Pacific coast north into Wyoming, Idaho and Oregon.

18 hour model

By Monday afternoon, the cold front is moving east with severe weather shifting into East Texas through Arkansas, Missouri and Illinois into Kentucky and Indiana. While some snow may fall in Extreme Northern New England, this will be a mostly rain event for the area with rain moving in from the Northwest to Southeast. The weak low pressure system will not generate much in the way of strengthening but will help continue unstable conditions which will enhance the severe weather risk in East Texas and Oklahoma.

A cold High pressure system follows the low out of Canada and will bring some below normal temperatures to the Northern Plains for a bit while the overnight instability in the Rockies gives way to better weather during the afternoon, though a few showers can’t be ruled out throughout the Western U.S.

36 hour model

By early Tuesday, The low in Canada will be pulling Northeast as the cold front brings rain to the New England region back into New York down through New Jersey. Some wrap around snow will fall behind the front as precipitation changes with the drop in temperatures. The low along the southern end of the front will continue to weaken as it approaches the Atlantic coast but it will have plenty of gulf moisture to work with the help produce rain and thunderstorms from Louisiana to Florida up through Virginia and Southeastern Kentucky.

A cold high pushes into the Great Lakes region bringing below average temperatures and possibly a little lake effect snow off Lake Huron into Michigan. The western portion of the U.S is quiet with a few showers over the 4 Corners region.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Update

Fire Weather

Severe Outlook

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Severe Thunderstorms are likely across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and East Texas into parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, and Western Mississippi today and tonight. Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are all possible.

***Analysis***

Strong to severe storms ongoing axcross parts of Southern and Central Oklahoma Monday morning will result in uncertainty in the evolution of convection later this afternoon from Southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex region.

Southerly low level flow will continue to transport gulf moisture northward and Dewpoints should rise into the mid-60s by this afternoon. The cold front will continue to move southward from near the Red River to Central Arkansas by late this afternoon.  This front, along with any outflow boundaries remaining from the overnight convective complex and the Dryline over East Texas will be the focus for the development of thunderstorms today.

Deep layer shear will favor supercell development with steep lapse rates leading to moderate to strong instability. This will help support very large hail along the cold front.  Numerous storms are expected in both the super cellular and convective cluster forms.  All type of severe weather hazards can be expected today though the extent of the tornado threat is a little lower due to the lack of convergence and weak low level winds near any of the primary boundaries.  Tornadoes cannot be ruled out however.

Storms will spread east across the lower Mississippi Valley where weaker instability and unidirectional shear profiles are expected. Clusters and squall lines will be possible with locally strong winds and some hail possible.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

Storm Reports

Weather Forecast and Severe Weather Outlook for Wednesday, April 6, 2016

The return of snow to the Northern Great Lakes, dry conditions continue to be favorable for critical fire conditions after yesterday’s major fires in Oklahoma and Kansas.

The current surface Analysis

Surface map us

Today’s National Forecast

Weather Forecast map

A low pressure system will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes today, bringing rain and snow to those regions. Farther south, rain and thunderstorms will be possible for much of the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee valleys today. The system will spread rain into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast tonight, with the potential for snow in northern New England. Any snow across northern New England will change to rain on Thursday as the system pulls warmer air north into the region. Heavy rain is possible Thursday into Thursday night across portions of eastern New England, where 1 to 2 inches of rain is forecast to fall, with locally higher amounts. Widespread rain may linger across Maine into Friday morning before the system pulls away.

In its wake, another round of cold temperatures will invade areas from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Scattered rain and snow showers will persist across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday as colder air moves in, and the same will hold true for the eastern U.S. on Thursday night and Friday. While temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below average today across the East, the colder air mass arriving behind this front will result in temperatures 10 to 20 degrees below average for Thursday and Friday across a wide area from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic.

The western U.S. will remain dry today with temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above average. An upper-level low over the eastern Pacific will begin to increase moisture across the Southwest by late on Thursday, resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will become a little more numerous across the Southwest on Friday as increasing moisture interacts with terrain and a decaying stationary frontal boundary.

Current Model Analysis

6 hour model

A cold high pressure system remains over the Northeast and will keep the east coast relatively dry. Low pressure moving into Minnesota will bring rain and snow to the Great Lakes region with Rain near Chicago and Milwaukee with snow up by Green Bay and along Lake Superior.

Further South, some showers will finally begin to move into Oklahoma along the cold front but those will quickly pull east by this afternoon leaving hot and dry conditions ripe for brush fires again today, though conditions will not be quite as bad as yesterday. As the multiple brush fires showed, conditions like these can be very dangerous.

Over on the Pacific coast, a moisture starved low over the Arizona desert might bring some cloudiness to the area but the strong high pressure over the Northern Rockies will keep conditions relatively dry.

18 hour model

By Wednesday afternoon, the East coast should be generally dry as high pressure continues to hold. Temperatures should warm up a little and continue to melt the snow from this past weekend in the Northeast. High pressure actually dominates much of the country as a high over the Rockies keeps things dry there as well. The lone exception is the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, where a strong low pressure system will continue to generate snow for the Northern Great Lakes and bring heavy rain from near Chicago south along the Mississippi River down into Arkansas and Tennessee.   The south will remain dry and hot during the afternoon while the aforementioned fire conditions prevail.

36 hour model

By early Thursday, High pressure is in complete control of the Western half of the county as a cold front draws gulf moisture up the Eastern seaboard and causes rain from Florida to Maine. Some of this rain will be heavy especially over the Appalachians. Snow may fall or mix with rain in extreme northern areas of New England but most snow will stay north in Canada. Some wrap around snow is possible behind the system throughout the Great Lakes.

Current Severe Weather Outlook

***Critical Fire Weather Update***

Areas that saw large brush fires yesterday are still under very hot and dry conditions today with winds expected to be around 20 MPH.

Fire Weather

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 107,658 4,352,680 Oklahoma City, OK…Tulsa, OK…Wichita, KS…Norman, OK…Lawton, OK…

Enhanced low and mid-level northwesterly flow ahead of the shortwave will combine with a tight pressure gradient around the surface low to bring a broad corridor of 15-25 mph winds across Kansas and Oklahoma. Low humidities, in the teens and lower 20s, will combine with these strong winds to support a critical area from Southern Oklahoma up to the Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska border areas.

In the surrounding elevated areas, the strongest winds are expected to remain away from the locations with the lowest humidity totals, though borderline critical conditions could occur on a brief and spotty basis.

Severe Outlook

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 62,158 9,367,939 Nashville, TN…Atlanta, GA…Birmingham, AL…Montgomery, AL…Huntsville, AL…

***Severe Weather Analysis***

…SUMMARY…

Isolated Damagind winds will be possible across parts of the Tennessee Valley and Deep South in the late afternoon to evening.

***Analysis***

A shortwave impulse over the Upper Midwest will rotate towards the Great Lakes today. The impulse is embedded within a trough that is progressing rapidly across the Central States into the Southeast.  The low pressure system will move from Northern Illinois into Ontario leading a surface trough into Kentucky and Tennessee down into parts of the Deep South by early evening.  A cold front will trail this trough to the west arcing across the Lower Mississippi Valley.

The dry continental air currently in place remains prevalent across the entire region driven by high pressure near the Mid-Atlantic States. A plume of moisture over Louisiana will advect northeastwards and increase dew points into the 50s by late afternoon.  Despite high cloud cover, daytime heating could reach into the 70s across Northern Mississippi and Alabama into Central Tennessee which will help drive convection that could be potentially severe until the late evening.

This Week’s Flood Risk

Flood Risk

Yesterday’s Storm Reports

 

Storm Reports

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather