Significant severe weather outbreak possible Saturday

Forecast Discussion: A strong shortwave is currently sweeping across the Four Corners region, which has induced the development of a surface low pressure system over the southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico border. As the strong shortwave closes off into a mid-level low pressure system, the surface low will move into southwestern Kansas over the next few hours. A frontal boundary is currently stalled out across central Missouri, lower Illinois/Indiana and along the Ohio River in Ohio/Kentucky. A very moist environment exists south of the frontal boundary at and near the surface. As the surface low treks across Kansas tonight and tomorrow morning and into Missouri/Iowa late Saturday afternoon, the stalled front will begin moving northward as a warm front, replacing the dry airmass to its north with moisture-laden air. Throughout the day Saturday, surface dew points will increase across southeast Iowa and over the remainder of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio.

surface analysis

Isentropic lift occurs when warmer air pushes up and over a colder airmass, which can generate precipitation. Isentropic lift, along with embedded weaker shortwaves, will continue to generate rainfall along and north of the soon-to-be warm front tonight into tomorrow morning across much of the lower Midwest. If you take a look at the Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) severe weather risk area for Saturday, they have an enhanced and moderate risks extending from far northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa into northern/central Illinois, and northwestern Indiana. Please be aware that conditions in the morning (6-8am CT) may not feel like a severe weather day across the enhanced/moderate risk areas. Since the warm front will have not moved through much of the region at this point, temperatures will be somewhat chilly, especially with the rain falling. However, as the warm front surges northward, low-level moisture (humidity levels) will increase rapidly into the afternoon hours.

severe weather forecast

The surface low will move into western Iowa by mid-afternoon, strengthening further as it moves into the region. The region positioned just east of the surface low, ahead of the cold front, and south of the warm front will have the greatest risk of dangerous severe weather, as outlined in the SPC forecast. Rainy weather in the morning hours should move out quickly enough to allow for sufficient daytime heating at the surface. As the mid-level low approaches from the west, mid-level temperatures will cool, which will increase instability within the atmosphere. Surface-based instability allows air parcels (bubbles of air) near the surface and within the low levels of the atmosphere to begin rising. Surface heating and the addition of moisture makes those low-level air parcels buoyant. By cooling the mid-levels of the atmosphere, this ensures that the rising air parcels will remain warmer than the surrounding environment, allowing them to keep rising. This strong rising motion in the atmosphere on Saturday will result in deep thunderstorms developing across the risk zone, which will cause an increased risk for very large hail.

Tornado Risk: The enhanced and moderate risks also have been issued due to the tornado risk tomorrow. Within the treat zone, winds will flow from the southeast at the surface but will veer to the southwest with increasing height. We call this vertical wind shear. The position of the surface low relative to the mid-level low and shortwave will cause this turning of the winds with height. Given higher instability and vertical wind shear, tornadoes, some of which could be EF-2 or stronger, are expected. In fact, long-track tornadoes are possible. Keep in mind that the tornado risk extends southward into the Mississippi Valley ahead of the cold front as well; however, the tornado probabilities across that region will stay comparatively lower.

Chicago Tornado/Hail Risk: You might notice that the SPC only has Chicago under a slight risk; however, residents should watch the forecast closely tomorrow afternoon into the evening. The 18z NAM model is slower with moisture return across the Chicago area. By 5pm CT, the model projects dew points to only be in the mid to upper 40s. To the contrary, the HRRR model guidance has consistently projected dew points to be in the upper 50s or 60°F around the same time in downtown Chicago and well into the 60s in the western and southern metro. Timing matters a lot. If the low levels moisten sooner in Chicago, this could increase the tornado risk across the city, especially in the western and southern metro. Which model do we pick? That’s a tough question, especially when they’re trying to iron out intricate details. From what I can tell, the NAM model keeps conditions a bit cloudier across northern Illinois into the afternoon and even has storms moving through a little earlier than the HRRR model does. On the other hand, the HRRR has more daytime heating across the area, which would likely allow the warm front to advance northward more quickly. In effect, this would give developing and passing storms a much more unstable environment to work with. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the SPC bumps up the risk across areas closer to Chicago in their next update.

NAM model dew points
HRRR model dew points

Please continue to monitor the situation closely throughout the day tomorrow. These forecasts are never perfect, which means that you should expect some forecast modifications tonight and tomorrow morning.  

Tornado Outbreak expected in Southeast

A significant Tornado outbreak and Severe Thunderstorm outbreak is expected across many areas in the Southeast, from Florida back into Alabama up through Georgia, South Carolina and parts of North Carolina.    The biggest risk is from northern Florida into Southern Georgia with smaller risks as far west as Eastern Mississippi up into Southern Virginia.

Tornado Outbreak forecast

Significant Severe Tornadoes expected

Tornado Outbreak
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 95,336 13,200,743 Columbia, SC…Charleston, SC…

St. Petersburg, FL…Orlando, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainsville, FL

30 % 52,311 4,824,800 Jacksonville, FL…Tallahassee, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainesville, FL…

Albany, GA…

15 % 44,337 9,370,344 Tampa, FL…St. Petersburg, FL…

Columbia, SC…Clearwater, FL…

Charleston, SC…

10 % 42,022 5,926,863 Orlando, FL…Columbus, GA…

Fayetteville, NC…Wilmington, NC…

Lakeland, FL…

5 % 81,803 21,852,295 Charlotte, NC…Atlanta, GA…

Miami, FL…Raleigh, NC…

Greensboro, NC…

2 % 48,102 6,722,417 Virginia Beach, VA…Norfolk, VA…

Birmingham, AL…Chesapeake, VA…

Winston-Salem, NC…

High Risk issued for Severe Weather

Categorical Day1 1300Z Outlook
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
HIGH 52,325 4,828,034 Jacksonville, FL…Tallahassee, FL…

Savannah, GA…Gainesville, FL…

Albany, GA…

MODERATE 44,236 9,345,964 Tampa, FL…St. Petersburg, FL…

Columbia, SC…Clearwater, FL…

Charleston, SC…

ENHANCED 54,540 8,455,690 Orlando, FL…Columbus, GA…

Cape Coral, FL…Fayetteville, NC…

Port St. Lucie, FL…

SLIGHT 68,779 19,272,935 Charlotte, NC…Atlanta, GA…

Miami, FL…Raleigh, NC…

Greensboro, NC…

MARGINAL 58,080 13,692,306  

Virginia Beach, VA….

Norfolk, VA…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A strengthening mid and upper level trough currently over Texas and Oklahoma will shift eastward into Mississippi and Alabama by this afternoon with a cold front surging east from Louisiana and Mississippi.    This storm will deepen and move north-northeastward across Alabama and Georgia.  Dewpoints ahead of this cold front are already in the 65 to 70 degree range with very buoyant air present.  The net result of these factors will be the potential for a significant tornado outbreak today.

Severe Weather is currently taking place across parts of Alabama, Georgia and Florida and a Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 AM EST.  Cluster of severe storms remain from the overnight hours and the storm environment remains favorable for supercell development.  A few tornadoes are likely and they could be intense.  Damaging winds and Large hail are also possible with these storms.

Additional watches should be expected during the day today.

While the current storms across Georgia are present, the main risk does not occur until later this morning, when thunderstorm activity will begin again over Southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.  These storms will the spread east-northeast across Florida and Georgia through the day.  Long tracked, strong tornadoes will be possible in fast moving supercells, in addition to damaging winds and large to very large hail.  The severe risk will spread northeastward into the Carolinas this evening as the system moves toward the Southern Appalachians.  Tornadic supercells could continue to occur in south Carolina and Southern North Carolina during the overnight hours.

Further South, the cold front will reach the remainder of Florida later this evening and overnight and bring the risk of severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes.

Any and all preparations for this event should be concluded by early this afternoon.   This will be a very dangerous situation for many people.   Please be prepared and ready at a moments notice.   We here at Firsthand Weather will do our best to be with you every step of the way this afternoon but keep your weather radios handy and pay attention to your local news broadcasts for updates on warnings that occur.    Facebook likes to prevent you from seeing our page if we post a lot of posts, as we likely will this afternoon.   To see what we are writing, you will need to go directly to our facebook pages and website, please do not count on your newsfeed to give you our information.

 

Robert Millette

 

Severe Weather for Southeast, fires continue

Severe Weather will come with rain as drought conditions are still going strong despite the recent rains.  It cannot be emphasized enough that the fires that saw 3 lives end in Tennessee can still continue over the coming days.    Arson investigations have been opened in some of these fires as investigators begin to determine how the fires started but fire conditions will not take long to return to areas once the rains pass so please remain vigilant in your daily activities when fire is involved.  To all of our readers and their neighbors in these regions,  stay safe and plan ahead.   As seen in Gaitlinburg, these fires can come very quickly.  Prepare in advance and be ready to leave at a moments notice with multiple escape routes as options.

drought-monitor

Rain will continue in the southeast tonight into Wednesday from Extreme Eastern Texas over the South Florida along the gulf up north through Arkansas into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions.  Additional precipitation is possible in New England with freezing rain advisories issued for the higher and more northern elevations.  Severe Weather, including Flash Floods and Tornadoes are possible tonight and will be addressed in this post.

A slowly weakening low pressure system across the northern plains and Upper Midwest will continue to bring potentially heavy snow to the Dakotas into this evening, before snow begins to gradually taper off overnight. Scattered snow and some rain showers will still be possible across the northern plains and Upper Midwest into Wednesday.

Farther east, widespread rain and even some thunderstorms are expected tonight and Wednesday from the lower Mississippi valley to the Northeast. Some areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys through tonight as some significant rains have already fallen in the area.

nws_precip_se_1

The showers and thunderstorms will reach the East Coast on Wednesday, with thunderstorms possible from the Southeast to the southern Mid-Atlantic region. By late in the day, snow is expected to develop across northern Maine as the precipitation spreads into colder air already in place. Snow may be heavy
at times Wednesday night into Thursday.

noaad1

Strong low pressure seen here moving into Canada has dragged a cold front south draped down into the Carolinas.  This weakening front brought the region last nights rain.  A second cold front associated with this low is now moving through Illinois down into Texas.  This front, along with a developing warm front moving north from the gulf are what will set the stage for tonight’s Severe Weather risk

Severe Weather Returns

severe weather

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 13,427 585,227 Tupelo, MS…Starkville, MS…Greenwood, MS…Grenada, MS…Oxford, MS…
ENHANCED 42,707 2,601,397 Baton Rouge, LA…Jackson, MS…Monroe, LA…Greenville, MS…Florence, AL…
SLIGHT 113,393 11,559,771 Nashville, TN…New Orleans, LA…Birmingham, AL…Mobile, AL…Huntsville, AL…
MARGINAL 49,543 6,567,755 Memphis, TN…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Montgomery, AL…Knoxville, TN…Beaumont, TX…

The storm prediction center has upgraded a small region in Northern Mississippi to a moderate risk while large portions of the south east remain in an enhanced or slight risk area.  The  risk for Tornadoes is large tonight and Tornado watches have already been issued for several counties.

severe-watch

Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 56,076 3,179,960 Baton Rouge, LA…Jackson, MS…Monroe, LA…Greenville, MS…Tupelo, MS…
15 % 13,456 588,577 Tupelo, MS…Starkville, MS…Greenwood, MS…Grenada, MS…Oxford, MS…
10 % 42,678 2,598,047 Baton Rouge, LA…Jackson, MS…Monroe, LA…Greenville, MS…Florence, AL…
5 % 70,735 7,846,202 Nashville, TN…New Orleans, LA…Birmingham, AL…Huntsville, AL…Metairie, LA…
2 % 43,513 4,379,865 Chattanooga, TN…Clarksville, TN…Beaumont, TX…Gulfport, MS…Lake Charles, LA…

The risk for significant tornadoes exists from Baton Rouge and Monroe Louisiana north towards Florence Alabama and just south of Nashville Tennessee, however, tornadoes can be expected from Beaumont Texas right up into Central Kentucky.

Current Tornado Watches

tor-watch-1 tor-watch-2

These watches extend from near Alexandria Louisiana to almost Jackson Tennessee and include Monroe Louisiana and Jackson and Tupelo Mississippi.  Memphis Tennessee remains just north east of the watch area but Tornadoes can occur outside the watch boxes so vigilance must be maintained.

The latest radar imagery show several strong and locally severe storms ongoing across the Lower Mississippi Valley area.  Advection will continue to occur across the Central Gulf Coast States and move into the Tennessee Valley as an upper level system approaches.  The Severe Weather and Tornado risk will spread northward with time.

firsthand Weather expects that Tornado Watches will continue to be expanded northeastward into further into Tennessee as scattered supercells in Mississippi move in that direction this evening.  Northeast Alabama and Tennessee should begin to see the impacts of these storms this evening into the overnight.  The environment is becoming more favorable for rotating storms as the evening goes on, especially in Northeast Mississippi.  Large hail and damaging winds will also be a risk tonight.

 

 

Robert Millette

Firsthand Weather

 

 

Hurricane Hermine to hit Florida, East Coast

Hurricane Hermine

Hurricane Hermine has continued to strengthen this afternoon and evening with winds increasing to 80 MPH.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.  NOAA buoy 42036 recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph and a wind gust of 78 mph, well away from the center of circulation.  Flooding rains and severe coastal flooding should be expected with Hermine.
Hurricane Hermine

Hurricane Warning/Watch, Tropical Storm Warning/Watch

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect from the Suwannee River to Mexico Beach in Florida.  Due to the increasing strength of Hermine, Hurricane Watches remain in effect from the Suwannee River South to the Anclote River and from Mexico Beach west to the Walton/Bay County line.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect from the Suwannee River south to Englewood, and for the aforementioned area from Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line.

On the Atlantic coast, A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Flagler/Volusia County line in Florida, to Duck in North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albermarle Sounds.

Tropical Storm Watches extend from North of Duck to Sandy Hook New Jersey, including Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point South, and Delaware Bay.

Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the warning area beginning tonight.  Winds are already near tropical storm strength in portions of the warning area, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area along the Atlantic coast on Friday, and spread northward through the weekend.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  There is a danger of life-threatening inundation within the next 12 to 24 hours along the Gulf coast of Florida from  Indian Pass to Longboat Key.    Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water.  Promptly follow any instructions, including evacuation orders, from local officials.

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Destin to Indian Pass…1 to 3 feet
Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River…4 to 7 feet
Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown…6 to 9 feet
Yankeetown to Aripeka…4 to 7 feet
Aripeka to Longboat Key…including Tampa Bay…2 to 4 feet
Longboat Key to Bonita Beach…1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia…1 to 3 feet
storm surge
Storm Surge projections

Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over portions of northwest Florida and southern Georgia through Friday, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches.  On Friday and Saturday, Hermine is expected to produce totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and eastern North Carolina through Saturday.  These rains may cause life-threatening floods and flash floods.

Tornado Watches have been posted across the region as severe weather is expected to be a threat.

Hermine Tornado

 

 

Robert Millette

Severe weather risk for the Upper Midwest

Severe weather is currently active over the Northern Plains with a tornado watch and multiple severe thunderstorm watches active this evening.

Summary

A potent shortwave trough is moving across the Northern Plains this afternoon and is expected to move towards the Upper Mississippi Valley by Friday.  Currently, the greatest threat for severe weather exists from the  Black Hill region of the Dakotas East and Southeast across the Mid-Missouri Valley.  Strong and damaging wind gusts, very large hail and a few tornadoes are expected.   Multiple Mesoscale Convective systems from these severe storms will continue to progress further East from the Midwest down to the Carolinas  and Georgia.

severe outlook

Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 35,708 282,582 Mitchell, SD…Pierre, SD…Yankton, SD…Vermillion, SD…
ENHANCED 90,604 4,130,773 Nashville, TN…Des Moines, IA…Sioux Falls, SD…Clarksville, TN…Sioux City, IA…
SLIGHT 214,768 10,921,413 Omaha, NE…Lexington-Fayette, KY…Lincoln, NE…Savannah, GA…Cedar Rapids, IA…
MARGINAL 372,120 43,514,822 Columbus, OH…Memphis, TN…Charlotte, NC…Kansas City, MO…Cleveland, OH…

Tornado Watch Active

tornado outlook

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR

Northern Nebraska, Western South Dakota and Far Northeast Wyoming until 10 PM CDT.

 

A few more tornadoes are likely with a couple of intense tornadoes possible.  Currently, there is an active Tornado Warning for a tornado on the ground in cherry County Nebraska.  Widespread Large hail and isolated very large hail to 3.5 inches in diameter likely and widespread damaging winds likely with isolated gusts to 80 MPH possible.

Intense thunderstorms, including Supercells and Supercell clusters have formed over the watch area and are moving towards the Eastern portion of the watch area.  South of this watch area, the Tornado risk is much smaller and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 PM CDT.  Squall line development is expected from the storms further north in the Tornado watch area.  This squall line will move into Central and Southern Nebraska and move toward the Southeastern and Eastern portions of this watch area.

tornado outlook

Further North,   a line of storms from Montana has moved into the Dakotas.  The severe thunderstorm watch for this area is slowly being cancelled from west to East but remains in effect for the Western Dakotas until 9 PM CDT.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watches are in effect for a small portion of Central Tennessee, this watch should be cancelled shortly.

 

Thursday Severe Risk

severe outlook

Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 120,618 9,748,278 Minneapolis, MN…Des Moines, IA…Cedar Rapids, IA…Springfield, IL…Peoria, IL…
SLIGHT 206,214 34,063,611 Chicago, IL…Indianapolis, IN…Milwaukee, WI…Omaha, NE…St. Louis, MO…
MARGINAL 347,083 42,004,487 Detroit, MI…Columbus, OH…Charlotte, NC…Nashville, TN…Kansas City, MO…

A complex setup is set for Thursday with multiple rounds of convection expected across a large region.  Clusters of severe thunderstorms will be likely within a Mesoscale Convective System over Iowa and  Southern Minnesota.  Downstream of this area, dew points  in the 70s will combine with daytime heating to form a moderately to strongly unstable air mass through the day. This set up should yield multiple clusters of intensifying storms from the late morning into the afternoon across parts of the Midwest.

In the wake of the morning activity, low level moisture should return on the Southwesterly flow underneath the elevated mixed layer.  Moderate to extreme mid-level cape could help generate another mesoscale convective system Thursday evening in the Iowa, Missouri, Illinois border area.

Farther north, strong mid-level winds associated with the trough will overspread Minnesota where strong instability already exists.  While instability does decrease the further north you go, scattered to widespread storms should form mid-afternoon to early evening.  Deep shear will be sufficient for organized strong clusters and embedded supercells.  Large hail and strong winds will be the primary risks.

Robert Millette

Staff Meteorologist

Firsthand Weather

 

 

 

Major Winter Storm Starts Across The South

snowstorm

A major winter storm is in the process of bringing a little bit of everything with a Tornado watch issued for through parts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi and winter weather warnings from Arkansas and Kansas all the way to New York City across 19 different states with snow or rain falling in 24 states. A potentially record breaking blizzard is expected to hit the mid-Atlantic and fall just short of hitting New England. Currently, locations under winter weather advisories are also under Severe Thunderstorm warnings and the tornado watch box for today is adjacent to counties that have winter weather advisories issued for later on today. It’s important for those who are in the worse affected areas to prepare themselves for what’s about to hit them. Do the basics like have a home safety kit, have enough food and water for at least 3 days, etc. You should also act fast after the storm has passed, checking your property for any damage it sustained. If you need to get roofing howard county md repairs after your roof was damaged in the storm then make sure you get it repaired quickly before it causes water damage. If you are a lover of dogs and enjoy taking your furry family member for walks regularly, we’d advise you to keep your dog dry as consistent wet fur for dogs can lead to illness, also it makes keeping home tidier and dry, easy.

warnings

Tornado Watches (some info is out of date now):

A Tornado Watch has been issued until 7 PM for

Angelina, Jefferson, Orange, Shelby, Hardin, Nacodoches, Sabine, Tyler, Jasper, Newton and San Augustine Counties in Texas.

Acadia, Beauregard, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Rapides, Vermilion, Allen, Calcasieu, Evangeline, La Salle, Sabine, Vernon, Avoyelles, Caldwell, Grant, Watchitoches, St. Landry, and Winn Counties in Louisiana.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms have been occurring in this region and will continue to occur this evening. Several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings have already been issued and this area will continue to bear watching for additional warnings this evening and even into the overnight hours as the system moves away.

A Tornado Watch has been issued until 10 PM for:

Ascension, Concordia, Iberia, Lafayette, Orleans, St. Bernard, St. James, St. Mary, Tensas, West Baton Rouge, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Lafourche, Plaquemines, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, St. Tammany, West Feliciana, Catahoula, East Feliciana, Jefferson, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. Martin, Tangipahoa, and Washington Counties in Louisiana.

As well as Adams, Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lamar, Lincoln, Neshona, Pike, Simpson, Warren, Amite, Covington, Hinds, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Madison, Newton, Rankin, Smith, Wilkinson, Claiborne, Forrest, Jasper, Jones, Leake, Marion, Pearl River, Scott, and Walthall Counties in Mississippi.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms have been occurring in this region and will continue to occur this evening into the overnight hours. Several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado warnings have already been issued and are currently active. This area will continue to bear watching for additional warnings this evening and even into the overnight hours as the system begins to move away.

Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri:

Light to moderate snow showers are currently falling from an area near Lincoln and Omaha Nebraska over to Oskaloosa, Iowa and down through much of Missouri and Kansas east of Witchita.

Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the following Counties in Kansas: Cherokee, Crawford, Bourbon, Allen, Wilson, Greenwood, Lyon, Chase, Marion, Coffey, Anderson, Linn, Miami, Franklin, Osage, Shawnee, Jackson, Atchison, Jefferson, Leavenworth, Wyandotte, Douglas and Johnson Counties.

And the following counties in Missouri: Platte, Clay, Jackson, Cass, Bates, Vernon, Barton, Jasper, Newton, McDonald, Barry Lawrence, Dade, Cedar, Saint Clair, Henry, Johnson, Benton, Morgan, Hickory, Camden, Polk, Greene, Christian, Stone, Taney, Ozark, Douglas, Webster, Wright, Dallas, Laclede, Miller, Maries, Pulaski, Phelps, Texas, Dent, Shannon, Howell and Oregon

No advisories are issued for Nebraska or Iowa.

The further North and West you are the earlier these advisories will end with the first advisories ending at 4 PM CST and the last advisories ending around midnight CST.

A period of light to moderate snow is possible but the showers and squalls in this region are quickly diminishing. Accumulations of an inch are possible where these showers hold together with maybe 3-4 inches in the extreme Southeast corner of the state. As warm air begins to move back in at the surface this afternoon, patchy freezing drizzle is possible as the system pulls away. This region missed out on the storm for the most part as it developed too far to the south and east but the system will make the evening commute hazardous in many areas in this region none the less.

Arkansas and Northern Louisiana:

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the following Counties: Marion, Baxter, Fulton, Izard, Sharp, Randolph, Searcy, Stone Pope, Van Buren, Conway, Yell, Montgomery, Pike, Clark, Ouachita, Calhoun and Bradley.

The advisory is in effect from 6 PM until 9 AM Friday CST.

Some freezing rain and drizzle will impact this area through this evening and additional showers of freezing rain, sleet and snow are likely overnight into the early morning hours of Friday. A few hundreaths of an inch of ice accretion can be expected in the Advisory area with snow and sleet accumulations of up to an inch with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches possible.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the following Counties in Arkansas: Sharpe, Lawrence, Randolph, Greene, Clay, Independence, Jackson, Craighead, Poinsett, Mississippi, Cleburn, Faulkner, White, Woodruff, Cross, Saint Francis, Crittenden, Perry, Garland, Saline, Pulaski, Lonoke, Prairie, Monroe, Lee Phillips, Hot Spring, Grant, Jefferson, Arkansas, Dallas, Cleveland, Lincoln, Desha, Drew, Ashley and Chicot

And the following Counties in Louisiana: Morehouse, West Carroll, East Carroll, Richland and Madison.

Winter Storm warnings are in effect starting around 6 PM in Northern Arkansas and lasting until 6 PM Friday in Southern Arkansas and Louisiana. A trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice is expected to fall across this area with 2-5 inches of snow and locally higher amounts expected as the storm begins to move away. Snow will fall more heavily for a time in the Eastern Central to Southeastern sections of this watch area but more rain will fall the further south you go and will keep amounts slightly lower in Louisiana and extreme Southeast Arkansas but the east central portion of the state could see as much as a foot of snow as heavy snow moves in towards the end of the storm.

Map valid for Friday morning

gap

Per the map , you can see precipitation moving into the Southeastern states as well as Kentucky, and towards the Mid-Atlantic.

Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana Ohio and West Virginia:

In Mississippi, North of Warren, Yazoo, Holmes, Attala, Winston and Noxubee, Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. More snow will fall in the western portion of the state where up to a foot of snow could fall as the cold air wraps around the back of the system. 3-6 inches will fall around Jackson with amounts dropping to 1-3 as you go toward the Alabama state line. For an interesting fun note, Warren County is currently under a Tornado Watch and then under the winter weather advisory for later on. Anyone for a tornadic thunder snow storm?

In Alabama, north of Pickens, Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, Shelby, Talladega, Clay and Cleburne Counties,

Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for an inch to 2 inches of snow. Rain will dominate the precipitation in this Alabama as the storm moves north and bring warm gulf air into the region but a late changeover to snow is possible for many areas as cold air wraps around the backside of the storm as it moves east. Accumulations are expected to be light but some sleet could fall during the transition as cold air at the surface moves in quicker than cold air aloft.

For Tennessee, every county in the state is under a Winter Weather Alert of some type. The middle of the state is under Winter Weather Advisories for 1-3 inches of snow. This area will also be impacted by the warm gulf air moving up into the region as the storm moves to the Northeast. After the initial low dissipates, the cold air coming in on the backside of the system will allow for a period of sleet and snow to occur and bring light accumulations to the area. In Western Tennessee, cold air will move in quicker as the storm stays south of Memphis and an area bounded by the state line towards Nashville will see amounts ranging from 4 inches upwards to a foot along the state line. Eastern portions of the state will see slightly higher amounts with 3-6 inches possible as precipitation begins as some snow and ice before changing to rain and then back to snow.

For Massac, Pope and Harden Counties in Illinois, Freezing rain is a major threat up to 2 tenths of an inch of freezing rain may fall with 3-6 inches of snow slated to fall.

The entire state of Kentucky is under winter weather warnings as freezing rain and snow are expected to accumulate through most of the state. Freezing rain accretion will be lower further east with a trace up to 2 tenths of an inch near Illinois. Nearly the entire state can expect at least 3 inches of snow with a swath from Louisville South expecting higher amounts throughout the entire state up towards 6 to 12 inches of snow. Eastern portions of the state as you approach the Appalachians will see 12-24 inches through the central part of the state.

In Indiana, Vandenburg, Warrick, Spencer, Dubois, Perry, Crawford, Orange, Washington, Harrison, Floyd, Clark, Scott, Jefferson, Switzerland, Ohio Counties are under Winter Weather Advisories for 1 to 4 inches of snow. These areas are on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield and will not see as much snow as areas to the south in Kentucky. Some counties to the north if these will see some wintry precipitation but only minor accumulations are expected.

For Ohio, Hamilton, Clermont, Clinton, Fayette, Pickaway, Fairfield, Perry, Muskingum, Guernsey, Belmont, Noble, and Monroe are under Winter Weather Advisories for 1-4 inches of snow. Similar to Indiana, these counties are on the fringe of the precipitation and will not see as much.

Brown, Adams, Highland, Ross, Pike, Scioto, Lawrence, Jackson, Gallia, Meigs, Vinton, Athens, Hocking, and Washington in Ohio are under Winter Storm Warnings for 4-8 inches of snow. This region will miss the really heavy stuff to the south.

Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Florida:

Florida will be a state that sees all rain and it presently has very little in the way of storm activity with a lone Severe Thunderstorm Warning active at the time of this writing. Friday will be a different story as the Storm Prediction Center gives a slight risk of severe weather to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. While Florida won’t see any snow, showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the entire state.

For Georgia, only light amounts of snow are expected with 1-3 inches of snow and some light icing for the northern part of the state. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for anywhere north of a Carrollton to Jonesboro to Lexington line including Atlanta.

A Freezing rain advisory has been issued in South Carolina for a line from Timmonsville to just north of Conway on into Castle Hayne North Carolina. A Trace up to a tenth of an inch of ice is expected in this region. Only a coating of snow may fall in this area.

Further North and West in South and North Carolina, The Piedmont region up into the mountains and foothills, including Greenville-Spartanburg and the Charlotte metro area should expect a significant icing situation with up to half an inch of ice accretion in the area. 2-10 inches of snow will fall with the higher amounts in the mountains and the lower amounts on the Piedmont. This ice and snow, along with gusty winds greatly increases the risk of power outages and makes for very dangerous travel. Any preparations for this storm should be completed by tonight.

The coastal plain for North Carolina also has winter weather advisories issued until 11 AM Friday. There will be about a tenth of an inch of snow and some small sleet accumulations. This will be a mostly rain event for this area as the storm develops off the coast.