Hurricane Safety and Quick Tropical Update

Hurricane Hunter aircraft are once again in the air this afternoon exploring Hurricane Irma. Yesterday evening, the NOAA and US Air Force put on a display with 4 flights into Irma to gather data. At the moment, there is currently 1 flight under way, an upper level dropsonde mission, but 1 low level recon mission has just completed with more preparing to get under way. Hurricane Warnings are in effect for several of the Caribbean Islands and a very dangerous situation will be occurring there in the next 24 hours. Hurricane watches have been extended to the Turks and Caikos and Southern Bahamas. Irma still has winds of 185 miles per hour with gusts over 220 miles per hour.

Tropical Storm Jose has formed to the East of Irma in the Atlantic. This storm is expected to become a hurricane to be just east of where Irma presently is in about 3 days but the forecast calls for it to move to the Northwest and be less of a threat to the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. This is expected to become Tropical Storm Katia in the next couple of days. This system does not appear to be a threat to Texas and will actually loop around to the south and hit Mexico at this time. We will obviously watch this situation carefully.

The track below are Irma, Jose and 13 respectively.

Hurricane

Hurricane Safety

Evacuations

Evacuation orders are being prepared for in the Florida Keys currently. For those who are evacuating, you will need to determine a safe evacuation route inland and as far north as you can get. While evacuating, you’ll want to monitor the latest information to ensure that you will be evacuating to a location that is not also under a risk. Public services in these areas will already be strained and adding many evacuees will only cause more strain for everyone. Learning the location of official shelters will be helpful both in the event that you evacuate as well as for those who do not evacuate. Areas that are not under evacuation orders should also have shelters for the residents who end up in trouble due to hurricane hazards. Tornadoes, lightning, power outages, and property damage due to falling trees can force residents from their homes, even if a mass evacuation isn’t needed.
When evacuating, put together a go-bag. Include a disaster supply kit, including a flashlight, batteries, cash, first aid supplies, medications, and copies of your critical information if you need to evacuate. Ensure that you secure your critical information in waterproof bags. Snacks and stuff to drink will also be good for longer evacuations, especially with children and pets. While you may stop for gas, many others are also evacuating with you so its possible that many supplies will be sold out along your route. If you haven’t already, fill up your gas tank in your local area. Cell phones should be charged before you leave. Have one member of your family turn their phone off while travelling together. This will ensure that if one phone does run out of battery, you will have another phone to turn on and use. All family members should have all numbers for your phones and know to call multiple numbers if they can’t get a hold of you.
You should also inform someone of your plans. If you fail to arrive at your destination due to a car accident, your contact can alert the authorities. Having them know the route you planned to take is essential in locating you.
Stay tuned to local news outlets as you travel. Conditions may change and areas you were heading to that were going to be safe may not be anymore. Harvey brought a large area of rain to Texas and some locations people were heading for wound up under a flood warning when it wasn’t before. Always ensure that the safety of your location is the top priority.

Staying at home

For those of you who are not leaving home, I would first implore you to heed local evacuations if you are under them. Evacuation orders are given for a reason. If you are under those orders it is absolutely not safe where you are. While I do realize that some properties remain even in massively damaged areas, you only put yourself and those who would need to rescue you in the event of an emergency in danger by taking that gamble. It is never just your survival on the line.
If you have not been ordered to evacuate, there are several things you should plan for. First, as I mentioned above, have a plan to be able to evacuate to a local shelter if your house if one of the unfortunate locations that falls victim to one of the more local hurricane hazards. Lighting occurs frequently within a hurricane and can strike even in areas where hurricane conditions are not occurring. You should also have a plan for any pets you may have. Not all shelters accept pets so ensure the one you may go to does.

What to bring to the shelter

You will need to make sure that you have everything you need at the shelter. While the shelter will have supplies, they don’t usually carry specific medications or your specific brand of baby food or pet food. Ensure that you have a first aid kit with all the medications taken by your family. If you are running low, see if your local pharmacy can give you more. Baby food and diapers will be needed. Your baby should be prepared for a multiple day stay at the shelter. Bring things to do as well. Books, games for children, headphones and a source of music (we all know some of you still have a Walkman) will all be desired. The shelter is not exactly a fun place to be. Bring your toiletries and blankets. The shelter will have some but we all prefer our own. Flashlights and batteries are good to have in case the power goes out at the shelter as well. Also ensure you bring identification, cash and credit cards as well as copies of your essential documentation like proof of insurance.

Protecting your home

Be aware that Hurricane winds can cause trees and branches to fall, so before a hurricane trim or remove damaged trees and limbs to keep you and your property safe.
Secure loose rain gutters and downspouts and clear any clogged areas or debris to prevent water damage to your property. This can also help keep them lighter and not fall under the weight of all the rain. Hurricanes can be a daunting experience for a lot of people and if you decide to stay in your home, you need to make sure that all of the exterior systems like your guttering are working efficiently. Too much water in your gutters can increase the chances of water damage, which can result in further problems that you don’t need. By contacting someone similar to this Clean Pro Gutter Cleaning Baltimore company regularly can help to make sure that your gutter is free from anything that could have an impact on how it works, especially in the event of a hurricane. Reduce property damage by retrofitting to secure and reinforce the roof, windows and doors, including the garage doors. Plywood over windows or close storm shutters if your house has them, this can protect them from wind and debris. If you are construction inclined, hurricane clips can be installed in your attic to help secure your roof to the house. You can also brace your garage door and doors that lead outside with planks to keep it from blowing in. You should also close all interior doors to compartmentalize the house. If your doors sustain any damage remember to contact a company like Spark Garage Doors – Repair & Installation straight away. This way, if a window does break in one area, the remaining areas will have protection against the elements coming in. Purchasing a portable generator or installing a generator for use during power outages is also a good idea. Remember to keep generators and other alternate power/heat sources outside, at least 20 feet away from windows and doors and protected from moisture. You should never try to power the house wiring by plugging a generator into a wall outlet. If power does go out, use a flashlight. Candles are a fire hazard.

Keeping food and water safe

The most important thing when it comes to food is to buy nonperishable goods and to store water. You do not need to buy multiple gallons of water for activities like brushing your teeth. Simply refill an old milk or water bottle with tap water and use it. You can do the same thing for bath water, pre-filling your tub is also recommended. Tap water storage can be done with any container from large pots used for cooking to old bottles and even any large plastic container. Always remember to keep using the tap water until it goes out, you don’t want to needlessly use up your supply and not be able to replenish it. For any cold food you do have, turn your refrigerator and freezer to their maximum cold settings and open them as little as possible. This will help keep things cold. Try to use up any chilled foods first so that keeping things cold becomes unnecessary and have a supply of ice on hand to keep things cold longer. While you can buy ice at the store, you can also just use ice cubes. Simply dump your tray into a plastic bag and refill the trays. Dump new ice cubes as they form and keep refilling the trays. You will be able to continue this process for as long as you have power or tap water. This also creates an emergency water supply should you run out of water. Simply melt the ice. You can also use rain water if you have a safe way to get a bucket outside to collect some. You should always try to keep a lid on your water supply. This will keep dust and bugs out of it.

After the Storm

It will be tempting to go outside after the storm has passed or during the calm period in the eye. This should be avoided. The eye is only temporary and hurricane conditions can start very quickly. After the storm, there will be a lot of damage in the region. Floods could still be occurring and the water could be contaminated. You also can’t see what’s in the water. Animals and hazards in the water could be potentially dangerous to your health. The water could even be electrically charged from downed power lines.
Even where roads are visible, bridges and roads may no longer be safe for the weight of a vehicle.
Once you are home, check for damage. Ensure there are no downed wires, water or gas leaks, or damaged appliances in the home. Make sure you get Water Damage and Roofing Austin to repair any damages ASAP to prevent further issues.
We here at Firsthand will do our utmost to keep you up to date with the latest information. Our thoughts go out to those in the areas affected by Harvey. Stay safe everyone.

Robert Millette
Incident Meteorologist
Braintree Emergency Management Agency

Tropical Depression 4 struggling in the Atlantic

Tropical Depression 4 formed last night after a major burst of convection, seen on the satellite image below.  This convection, while strong at the time, has weakened and the low level circulation has gradually weakened throughout this morning and early afternoon.   Some additional increase in strength is expected but Firsthand Weather does not anticipate that TD Four will become a Tropical Storm at this time.

Regional Conditions in the Tropics

Currently, dry air from an earlier Saharan Air Layer continues to be in place over the Atlantic as seen on the Water Vapor image above.  The entrainment of this dry air continues to be the biggest prohibiting factor preventing Tropical Depression 4 from increased development.  As Chris had forecast in his previous article, other conditions  are currently conducive for tropical development at this time, but wind shear is expected to increase as Tropical Depression 4 moves north of the Lesser Antillies.  This will cause the depression to weaken into a Post Tropical Cyclone and dissipate before reaching the coast of the United States.

Tropical Depression 4 Expected Track and Model Analysis

At this time, Tropical Depression 4 is moving West-Northwest around 21 mile per hour.  This track is expected to continue for then next couple of days as Tropical Depression 4 moves just north of the Lesser Antillies.  4 should then continue on that general heading until dissipation to the Northeast of the Bahamas.

Tropical depression 4

 

The latest GFS model, show below, does show some marginal strengthening in the short  term, and the forecast calls  for maximum sustained winds  to reach 35 miles per hour, but beyond the next day or 2, conditions become unfavorable and the Tropical depression quickly comes apart as shown in the second image.

As seen in this second image, the weakening system begins to dissipate while North of Puerto Rico and then completely dissipates in later images.

Rob

 

 

Firsthand Weather Tropical Update

Tropical Depression Fiona, currently about 543 nm northeast of the Leeward Islands is still working her way east while 2 Tropical waves  look like they have the potential to develop over the coming week give Firsthand Weather plenty to watch in the Atlantic.

image

Water temperatures in the Atlantic are very warm ahead of these systems with temperatures in the low to mid 80’s spanning the coast from Florida up towards Virginia Beach.  These warm waters extend well out into the Atlantic along the Gulf Stream, which is bringing water as high as the upper 70’s along the New Jersey and Long Island New York coastlines.  The drop off to colder waters, around the low 70’s, doesn’t really happen until you get up to around Massachusetts, where the Gulf Stream moves further off shore, but water temperatures above 82 degrees exist not too far South from New England, which could help prevent a storm from weakening too much as it heads North.

image

Tropical Depression Fiona

Fiona has weakened into a Tropical Depression today as deep convection continues to sputter near her center.  Each successive burst has been a little smaller and less organized than the
previous ones that sheared off in the strong westerly upper-level winds.  Given that earlier scatterometer data only showed a few 40 mph winds, the decrease in convective organization since that time leaves maximum sustained winds at 35 mph.  Fiona continues to weaken at this hour due to 35 mph wind shear from the west and mid-level dry air impacting the system.  Fiona may devolve  into a remnant low in the next day or two but additional strengthening is expected after that as the wind shear is expected to greatly weaken as the atmosphere moistens to the west.  If Fiona manages to maintain her tropical characteristics during this time period, it is possible that she could once again become a tropical storm near the end of the week as she passes to the Southeast of Bermuda.

Tropical Depression Fiona

Tropical Waves

In the Central Atlantic, a tropical wave is pushing west toward the Lesser Antilles.  This system is producing limited and disorganized showers and thunderstorms as dry air near the system continues to inhibit the waves development.  Environmental conditions are expected to be come more conducive for development as the wave approached Hispaniola and the Southern and Central Bahamas later this week.

Another tropical wave is located about 300 miles South of the Cape Verde Islands.  This wave is continues to show signs of development and is forecast to become a Tropical Depression in the next couple of days.  Environmental conditions will remain favorable for the next several days as this system moves West over the Eastern Tropical Atlantic.