Tropical development likely in the Gulf, impacts possible for Florida

The remnants of Hurricane Agatha, the first Eastern Pacific system of the season, have a chance to develop later this week over the Bay of Campeche or the western Caribbean.

Agatha upon landfall Monday evening in southern Mexico was ripped apart by the high terrain of the region. While the system has lost its intensity and tropical characteristics, some of the energy from the system will reemerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico/western Caribbean around midweek.

Join the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group community for exclusive weather content.

As this energy moves over the warm waters of the region, it could slowly develop into a tropical system. Initially, development looks to be slow due to strong wind shear over the region. However, models suggest the wind shear will relax by late week, potentially allowing for a tropical depression or weak tropical storm to develop.

It’s uncertain where this broad area of low pressure could consolidate into a tropical cyclone and that will have an impact on the exact track. Regardless, it appears southern and possibly central Florida could see impacts in the form of tropical moisture so regardless of this system becoming tropical in nature, moisture should move into this region late week into the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 60% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone over the coming days. If it does develop, it should remain on the weak side. The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins June 1.