Firsthand Weather is closely monitoring a tropical disturbance moving out of the western Caribbean over Central America. This disturbance is producing quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity but it remains disorganized. Once this disturbance moves across Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula, it will emerge in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
The waters in this region or warm with minimal wind shear. This is an environment that will support tropical development. A Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm will likely develop late this weekend (Sunday) or early next week (Monday) in the western Gulf of Mexico.
There are still some questions about the evolution of this system. Some of the questions are where will the system track and how strong will it get. Right now, it appears this system may become a Tropical Storm, possibly riding the Texas coast next week but this will be clearer over the coming days. Regardless of intensity, it will increase tropical moisture across southern Texas, coastal Texas, and southeastern Texas late this weekend into next week. The heavy rain threat then shifts farther north and east into parts of Louisiana and possibly farther east into Mississippi and Alabama later in the week but it’s too far out to know for certain.
The heaviest rain will fall across coastal Texas and coastal Louisiana where 4-10 inches of rain is expected with isolated higher amounts. This will lead to a significant flash flood threat next week as the system slowly meanders over the area.
There is high uncertainty with this forecast so keep checking back frequently for updates.