Tropical system to develop off the North Carolina coast?

The tropical Atlantic is quiet but that may change over the coming days. Firsthand Weather is keeping a close eye on a low pressure that will develop, moving off the North Carolina coast by early next week.

This low pressure will develop along a slow-moving cold front this weekend, moving off the coast by early next week. This low pressure will need to be monitored closely because the water temperatures off the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coast are very warm (notice the orange and red colors on the fig. below). Water temperatures this warm are conducive for tropical development if other environmental and atmospheric conditions align for development.

Fig. 1: Current sea-surface temperatures

The chance for tropical development does remain low overall, and the National Hurricane Center is suggesting no tropical development is expected over the next 5 days. Models are starting to hint at the possibility this low pressure system may try to develop into a tropical system early next week. In fact, the ECMW EPS suggests there’s a medium chance for development.

Fig. 2: Probability of tropical depression development

If a tropical system develops, it would move northeast–away from the North Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts. Right now, the chance for tropical development is low, but this system will continue to be monitored by Firsthand Weather Meteorologists.

Regardless of development, this low pressure and associated cold front will provide increasing rain chances to the Carolinas and Southeast this weekend and early next week. Some of the rain may be heavy at times leading to areas of flash flooding. The heaviest rain will fall across coastal parts of Georgia and the Carolinas.

Fig. 3: Rainfall forecast over the next few days