Could the Gulf see tropical development this upcoming week?

All eyes are on the Gulf of Mexico this upcoming week as a system could develop bringing heavy rainfall to parts of the Gulf Coast states.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the northwestern or northern Gulf of Mexico early to mid week, remaining over the northern Gulf of Mexico or hugging the Gulf Coast states from mid week toward the end of the week.

The official start of the hurricane season isn't until June 1, but tropical development can and has occurred before June. While Firsthand Weather isn't currently expected a tropical cyclone to develop, meteorologists at Firsthand Weather will keep a close eye on the system to see if it acquires tropical or subtropical characteristics.

The waters in the Gulf are unusually warm, so while odds are low of tropical development at this time, tropical development cannot be completely ruled out if this system stays over the water and shear decreases enough. At that point, it could attempt to organize and strengthen acquiring tropical or subtropical characteristics. Some guidance does hint at this potential.

Current SST anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico

Despite the current low odds of development into a tropical or subtropical cyclone, the system will bring heavy rain to the Gulf states that will increase the flood risk for areas that are seeing heavy rain this weekend. Rain initially falls for areas near I-10 from the upper-Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle through midweek. The heaviest rain will be for coastal Louisiana and coastal Mississippi. Rain moves farther inland into parts of the South and Southeast toward the end of the week. The exact placement of the heaviest rain and amounts are uncertain at this time due to questions around the intensity and track of the low pressure system.

This system could also bring rough seas and gusty winds to the north-central Gulf Coast leading to minor coastal erosion. Some of the stronger wind gusts could spread inland late week depending on the track of the low.

The first name on the 2023 Tropical Cyclone Names List is Arlene.