Eyes on the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for tropical development

There's growing concern for tropical development over the Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico in about a week's time. A large gyre, or a large swirling area of lower pressure associated with unsettled weather, could spawn a tropical system sometime next week.

The current odds are low, at 20% over the next 7-days, according to the National Hurricane Center but those odds will likely increase by the end of the week and upcoming weekend as guidance suggest atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for tropical development. This gyre will be located over an area with abnormally warm water temperatures, wind shear is expected to be low enough to support development along with an injection of eastern Pacific moisture all tend to lead to increasing concerns for development.

National Hurricane Center forecast

It's too early to forecast strength or specifics with this potentially developing system but early guidance suggests the steering pattern next week could favor a northward path into the central Gulf of Mexico, at least initially, and then at that point, there's quite a bit of uncertainty and vairance amongst guidance. Anything is possible at that point, from a continued northward trajectory or even a northeast or northwest movement. All residents along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the forecast over the weekend and next week.