Here's what to expect this hurricane season
Experts at Colorado State University are predicting a slightly below average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. The tropical weather outlook calls for six hurricanes, two of which could become major (category 3 or stronger), and 13 named storms.
Colorado State University 2023 Forecast
Typically, an average season (1991-2000 average) has seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and 14 named storms, so this season is expected to have around 80% of tropical activity compared to normal.
A big reason for the slightly below average forecast is because of the expected El Nino conditions that are forecast to develop later this summer and fall, and those influences on the tropical Atlantic basin with increase wind shear helping to mitigate tropical development. Despite the unfavorable development conditions over the tropical Atlantic due to the development of El Nino, the sea-surface temperatures are unusually warm. This to an extent can help counter the expected higher levels of wind shear that's not favorable for the development and sustainability of tropical cyclones.
Current Atlantic SST departures from average
Colorado State University says this hurricane season could feature some similarities to 2015, 2014, 2012, 2009, 2004 and 2002.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season begins in just over a month on June 1.