Hurricane likely to make landfall late week, heavy rain spreads inland

We will likely have Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico this week. The area that's been monitored for development over the past few days is now classified as Invest 97L. Invest 97L has a high chance--80%--of development with a tropical system developing as early as the next 36-48 hours.

NHC forecast

This area that's being monitored is now classified as an 'Invest' because it's now being investigated. In terms of data and information, this is good, because allows for more computer models will forecast intensity and track over the coming days. Another great source of information will come from the Hurricane Hunters who will begin investigating the area of interest on Monday.

While it's too early to get into the exact specifics, which is nearly impossible at this point without a developed system or center of circulation, the early guidance is clustered, showing a potential landfall somewhere around Big Bend of Florida to the Florida Panhandle late Thursday into early Friday.

GEPS center forecast track

GEFS center forecast track

Please keep in mind, this is not set in stone. Notice the guidance, while clustered around the Big Bend of Florida to the Florida Panhandle, does show quite a bit of spread from Louisiana to the Southwest Coast of Florida, so all residents along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the forecast this week.

The majority of models are showing this system, Helene, likely becoming a hurricane beyond midweek, making landfall, again either late Thursday or early Friday, as a hurricane. Guidance generally agrees Helene will achieve strength of a Category 1 to Category. But again, this is far from certain, and the system could be weaker or stronger.

Modeled intensity forecast

Regardless of intensity, all residents in the eventual path, or nearby, need to keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Storm surge will be a concern for coastal areas but inland flooding from heavy rain becomes a concern late week into the upcoming weekend—from Friday through Sunday—for parts of the South and Southeast.

Rainfall forecast next 7-days