Hurricane Milton impacts, forecast from Florida to Georgia and South Carolina
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings are in effect for parts of Florida, both the west and east coasts of the state, ahead of Major Hurricane Milton that's forecast to make landfall Wednesday night.
Milton underwent super-rapid intensification Sunday night through Monday, intensifying into one of the strongest hurricanes on record with a central pressure of 897 mb and maximum sustained winds of 180 mph. Since then, Milton has undergone a weakening trend as it underwent an eye wall replacement cycle overnight Monday and early Tuesday but Milton remains a power Category 4 as of Tuesday morning. In fact, it's just a few mph shy of a Category 5 and should obtain Category 5 status again on Tuesday afternoon.
As Milton continues to move east northeastward throughout Tuesday and Wednesday, it's forecast to make landfall Wednesday night along the western Florida peninsula coast as a major Category 3 hurricane. It cannot be ruled out that the hurricane could be Category 4 at landfall. Regardless of Category 3 or 4, the impacts will be the same. The slight lessening in intensity will be caused by less favorable environmental conditions due to increased shear and dry air, but regardless, the hurricane will remain powerful. Despite the forecast landfall late Wednesday, impacts will begin being felt overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday morning as the hurricane approaches the coast of Florida and will linger through Thursday.
Current (Tuesday morning) Milton forecast
As mentioned, the Hurricane Warning has been extended from coast to coast across parts of Florida with additional parts of the state under Tropical Storm Warnings. Tropical Storm Watches extend along the coast of Georgia up along coastal South Carolina, including Charleston and Savannah.
Current (Tuesday morning) tropical alerts
Storm Surge Warnings and Watches are also in effect for nearly the entire western coast of Florida with the northeast coast of Florida now being included in the Storm Surge Warning. Parts of the Storm Surge Warning, along the western coast, could see a storm surge of 10-15 feet. Localized 20 foot amounts cannot be completely ruled out. This geometry of the trajectory of Milton and the continental shelf along and just off the western coast of Florida will allow the water and storm surge to really 'pile up' and build.The highest surge will be near the center and just south of the immediate center of Milton late Wednesday. This could include both Tampa Bay and Fort Myers. Keep in mind, slight fluctuations in track and the motion of the track could have significant impacts of the storm surge levels.
A Storm Surge Watch extends from coastal Georgia and along coastal South Carolina, including Charleston and Savannah. These areas could see a storm surge up to 5 feet.
**Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge alerts
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Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge forecast
Current (Tuesday morning) storm surge forecast--Tampa Bay
Along with hurricane conditions (wind and storm surge), heavy rain is forecast with Milton that will lead to localized rainfall amounts of up to one foot in Florida, leading to a high flash flood risk. The heaviest rain, or the dirty side of the system, will be on the north side of the center of Milton. From the center north, potentially along a line from Tampa Bay to Orlando, northward toward Jacksonville, is forecast to see the heaviest rain. While the heaviest rain is forecast in Florida, it should be noted that coastal and far southeastern Georgia will see up to a few inches of rain too. The squalls that produce the heavy rain could spin up tornadoes over the next couple of days across Florida.
Milton rainfall forecast
Please keep a close eye on the forecast, have multiple reliable sources of information and listen to all local officials. If you're told to evacuate, evacuate. Never cross roadways covered by water.