Increasing odds of new tropical system in Gulf

There's growing confidence in a tropical system developing in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next 7-days.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development to 40%, or a medium chance, over the next 7-days. Numerical guidance is bullish on development, suggesting a high chance for development. It's likely that the odds from the NHC will continue to increase over the weekend into early next week.

NHC forecast over the next 7 days

The low pressure is forecast to establish itself over the western Caribbean early this upcoming week, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico around midweek and continue churning over the Gulf from mid to late week, the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Beyond this timeframe, things grow increasingly questionable, as expected, without a developed system and being around a week out.

While there is here is high uncertainty with any potential intensity and track, it does appear environmental conditions will favor this system becoming a tropical cyclone.

An early look at steering currents does suggest the potential is at least there for Gulf Coast impacts, but again, this is subject to change as there is uncertainty. Any impacts to the Gulf Coast would be late this upcoming week or next weekend. It should be noted, direct impacts to the Gulf Coast are not a certainty but cannot be ruled out at this time.

Keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days.

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