New system developing in the Gulf, flooding likely in Florida

A broad area of low pressure is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico. Additional, gradual development is possible over the next few days and a tropical or subtropical storm could form around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe of next week.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds for development to 70% over the next 7-days.

NHC forecast NHC forecast

This system is the remnants of Tropical Depression 11 from the Eastern Pacific (its associated moisture and vorticity--or spin) pairing with another broad area of disturbed weather, which are expected to form into a new area of low pressure. This new area of low pressure could form into a tropical or subtropical storm over the next few days as it slowly moves east-northeast toward the central Gulf of Mexico. There's been a noticeable trend in this scenario over the past few days with numerical guidance jumping on board.

While there are questions about the exact evolution of this system, there's good agreeance that this system will move toward Florida, increasing rain chances next week. If this system develops, it'll near the western Florida peninsula coast sometime around Wednesday next week, possibly lingering over the state through the end of the week, producing widespread heavy rainfall. Regardless of development or intensity, increased rain and associated flooding is likely for Florida next week where locally up to a foot of rain could fall across the Florida peninsula.

WPC 7-day rainfall forecast WPC 7-day rainfall forecast

Interests in Florida should closely monitor the forecast. Milton is the next name. Rain from this system is not forecast for Tennessee and North Carolina.