New tropical system could emerge in the Gulf this week

There's growing confidence and concern in a tropical system developing in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico this week.

The National Hurricane Center has gradually increased the odds of development to 50%, or a medium chance, over the next 7-days. Numerical guidance is bullish on some type of development, suggesting probable development somewhere in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico, possibly as early as midweek. It's likely that the odds from the NHC will continue to increase through the first half of this week as environmental conditions will favor gradual development.

NHC Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean forecast over the next 7 days

A low pressure is forecast to establish itself somewhere over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek and may continue to track into the Gulf from mid to late week, the Thursday-Friday timeframe. This low pressure could become a Tropical Depression by midweek, possibly gradually strengthening into a Tropical Storm by late week. The exact placement is uncertain and guidance, while bullish on some type of development, are struggling with where the main low develops and forms into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. Beyond the Thursday-Friday timeframe, things grow increasingly uncertain--as expected--without a developed system and being around a week out, on where the potential tropical cyclone moves, so there's high uncertainty with any potential intensity and track along with which areas could see impacts.

While the steering currents are unknown, it does suggest the potential is at least there for some type of Gulf Coast impacts, such as increased moisture and rain, but this is subject to change. There has been a slight trend toward the north-central or northeastern Gulf Coast. It should be noted, that is not a forecast and impacts to this part of the Gulf Coast are not set in stone but it is a trend that should be monitored. Any impacts to the Gulf Coast would be this upcoming weekend and/or early that following week. It should be noted, however, direct impacts to the Gulf Coast are not a certainty but cannot be ruled out at this time. Keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days if you live along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, or have travel plans to this region.

GEFS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)

**GEPS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located) **

Not only is the Gulf of Mexico being monitored for activity, but the rest of the Atlantic Basin is also quite busy with Hurricane Isaac (several hundred miles northwest of the Azores) and Tropical Storm Joyce (located over the central Atlantic Ocean) along with two other locations being monitored for development.

NHC Atlantic Basin forecast over the next 7 days

Isaac and Joyce are not expected to impact the U.S. The other two areas of potential development are not an immediate risk to the U.S. but need to be monitored over the next week to week and a half.