Substantial increase in chance for tropical development in the Gulf this week
The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has substantially increased the chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this week.
The system of interest, Invest 91L, now has a medium chance of formation this week. The NHC gives the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf a 50% chance for development over the next 2 days.
NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days
As of Thursday morning, showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure have become increasingly organized and it appears environmental conditions could favor further organization and a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm could develop as the low pressure is over very warm surface waters that are between 80 to 85 degrees and wind shear has lessened.
The satellite appearance of the system has really improved overnight and Hurricane Hunters plan on investigating the area later Thursday and again early Friday.
Regardless of development, Florida can expect heavy rainfall of a widespread 2-3 inches that could lead to minor flooding along with strong, gusty winds.
If this system develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Arlene. Today, June 1, is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.