Tropical system to form in the Gulf of Mexico this week, impacts possible for Gulf States

The odds are increasing for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico this upcoming week as a tropical disturbance, that is near the Yucatan Peninsula as of Saturday, moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.

Satellite imagery of tropical disturbance

As this disturbance moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and gradually moves northward just off the eastern coast of northern Mexico, it will interact with a broad area of low pressure, that brought heavy rain to parts of coastal Texas and Louisiana over the past week, along with a cold front that's advancing southward.

These ingredients along with lessened wind shear and warm water temperatures will combine to favor the development of a tropical depression, possibly a tropical storm this upcoming week, possibly as early as early to mid-week.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development in this region to 70% over the next 7-days, which is the likely category.

National Hurricane Center tropical outlook for the disturbance

It is too early to identify the exact impacts and potential track of this system, but the western Gulf States should keep a very close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Guidance does suggest the steering pattern will be toward the north through midweek, possibly becoming more north-northeast toward the end of the upcoming week. Regardless of development, heavy rain is probable along the Texas and Louisiana coast later this upcoming week.

Weather Prediction Center's precipitation forecast for the next 7-days

If this disturbance develops and becomes named, it would be Francine.