Tropical troubles possible in Gulf next week

The odds are increasing for tropical development over the Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico next week. A large gyre, also known as a large swirling area of lower pressure associated with unsettled weather, could aid in the development of a tropical system next week.

The odds for development have been bumped up to 40% by the National Hurricane Center over the next 7 days. These odds will likely increase by the end of the week and upcoming weekend as all indicators suggest development. Guidance suggests the atmospheric conditions will become more favorable for tropical development. This gyre will be located over an area with abnormally warm water temperatures, wind shear is expected to be low enough to support development along with an injection of eastern Pacific moisture all tend to lead to increasing concerns for development.

National Hurricane Center forecast

It's too early to forecast strength or specifics with this potentially developing system but early guidance suggests the steering pattern next week could favor a northward path into the central Gulf of Mexico, at least initially, and then at that point, there's quite a bit of uncertainty and vairance amongst guidance. Anything is possible at that point, from a continued northward trajectory or even a northeast or northwest movement. All residents along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas should keep a close eye on the forecast over the weekend and next week.