Will the tropics wake up soon?

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season has been a dud so far, with little tropical activity. Will that change as we approach the peak of the season?

As we get into August, much of our focus shifts to storm clusters (African easterly waves, the technical term) moving into the Atlantic from Africa. Some of those clusters typically go on to become tropical storms or hurricanes, but the atmosphere has to cooperate for that to happen. In August and September, the atmosphere usually becomes much for favorable for tropical development, but we haven't seen that so far this season. So, will that change?

One of the big culprits behind the inactive season so far has been A LOT of dry air. Dry air is not good for tropical development. We have a storm cluster moving into the Atlantic later this week and probably another or two right behind that. Model guidance has tried to develop some of these systems, but the dry air isn't going away for at least another 10 days, maybe longer. The map from the latest European model shows just what I'm talking about. . .a lot of dry air in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere!

Dry air over the open Atlantic

We do have a tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean that could develop into a tropical depression or storm this Friday or Saturday in the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico). It'll move toward northeast Mexico and maybe far southern Texas, bringing tropical rains.

National Hurricane forecast: August 16, 2022

But that's about it for now.