Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean Thursday afternoon. Sara has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is currently moving west at 12 mph. This general westward motion is expected to continue through the end of the week and over the upcoming weekend, but the system will slow to a crawl before moving more northward and picking up speed early next week.

**Thursday afternoon update on Sara from the NHC**
![Thursday afternoon update on Sara from the NHC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Thursday_afternoon_update_on_Sara_from_the_NHC_6deddf1bad.png)

**Sara's forecast cone from NHC**
![Sara cone](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sara_cone_2c9a2386fc.png)

This westward jog over the next 72 hours is good news for interests in the Gulf of Mexico and in Florida. A westward motion will allow Sara to interact with land, including land with higher terrain, disrupting the center of circulation, leading to an overall weaker system.

Sara is forecast to move into the southwestern or south-central Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday as either a Tropical Depression or low-end Tropical Storm. This is really good news for Florida. Earlier indications were that a high-end Tropical Storm or potentially a Hurricane could impact Florida around mid-next week if the system passed between Central America/Mexico and Cuba. Now, it's probable that Sara will encounter the land of Central America and Mexico so a weaker system in the Gulf is looking more likely early to mid next week meaning a weaker system, if not just a rain maker with an associated frontal system, could be what's in the cards for Florida around next Wednesday.

This is still a ways out so subtle changes in track and intensity can lead to larger forecast changes so keep checking back for updates. Sara is the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Sara cone

Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean Thursday afternoon. Sara has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and is currently moving west at 12 mph.

Sara forms in the Caribbean

An organizing disturbance over the central Caribbean is forecast to intensify into tropical storm, possibly hurricane, Sara over the coming days.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system in the Caribbean a high, 90%, chance for development into a tropical cyclone this week. The environmental conditions, such as light wind shear and anomalously warm water temperatures, do favor this development and favor additional strengthening late this week into the upcoming weekend over the Caribbean. Guidance is bullish on this system becoming a hurricane.

**Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean [90% chance to develop]**
![Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tropical_disturbance_in_the_Caribbean_43ee258a59.JPG)

As the system develops this week into the upcoming weekend, it'll remain in a region with weak steering currents, so it'll likely initially remain in the western or central Caribbean or near the central American coast, possibly looping or meandering, before a more northern track ensues next week as steering currents strengthen as a trough drops into central parts of the United States. This northern track will allow the system, likely Sara at that point, into the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

As the aforementioned trough moves east, the system could then move more eastward-northeastward toward Florida sometime around the middle of next week.

While a Florida impact is not a certainty, because the system has yet to develop, it's still several days out, and any land/terrain encounters would impact the intensity of the system and possibly affect the overall track, guidance is suggesting this is a realistic possibility. It's also too early to identify the intensity of what will become Sara and the intensity of the system if it makes a landfall but this will become clearer over the coming days.

Keep checking back for updates if you live along the western coast of Florida from the Panhandle to the Keys.

Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean

A system developing in the Caribbean could become a hurricane, possibly impacting Florida mid next week.

Developing hurricane could impact Florida next week

While severe weather is possible at any given time throughout the year, we've entered what's climatologically the secondary severe weather season where the frequency of severe weather tends to increase and colder, drier air from Canada and the Pacific clashes with relatively warmer, moister Gulf airmasses. Unfortunately, overnight Saturday and early Sunday morning, severe weather spawned tornadoes in central Oklahoma that caused significant damage around Oklahoma City.

Additional severe weather is forecast today and tomorrow across parts of the Southern Plains and South, into the Midwest. A potent, slow-moving upper-level storm system is responsible for the severe weather late last week and on Saturday and is the culprit for the severe weather over the next 36 hours.

This storm system will bring adequate shear and lift, paired with enough instability-or storm energy-to increase the severe and tornado risk for these areas with a greater tornado concern for southern and eastern Oklahoma extending into northern Texas and southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. There's a level 1 [green], level 2 [yellow] and level 3 [orange] severe risk for this region today and tomorrow.

The greatest severe risk this afternoon and evening lies across mainly southern and southeastern Oklahoma, extending into far northern Texas. These areas have the highest probability to see severe wind gusts up to 75 mph and tornadoes.

**Sunday's severe risk**
![Sunday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sunday_s_severe_risk_81b3ec5290.png)

**Sunday's tornado probability forecast**
![Sunday's tornado probability forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Sunday_s_tornado_probability_forecast_fe57579c00.png)

These same areas will see severe weather late Monday morning into the afternoon and evening hours, but the area of concern expands into all of eastern Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, southwestern Missouri and western Arkansas. Numerous severe storms, including tornadoes are possible for these areas.

**Monday's severe risk**
![Monday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Monday_s_severe_risk_45a6fb6e8f.png)

**Monday's tornado probability forecast**
![Monday's tornado probability forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Monday_s_tornado_probability_forecast_58f37596b2.png)

Please stay weather aware and have a way to receive weather updates and warnings. If you're in need of a reliable source to receive warning information from, Firsthand Weather has teamed up with WeatherCall to receive a phone call from us letting you know when a Watch or Warning is issued for your location based on your phones GPS [or address you enter]. This is a paid service [$15 per year] but it keeps you informed and safe and is a call from us. **[SIGN UP HERE TODAY BY CLICKING HERE!](https://www.wcapp04as.com/wc_ibw/db_app2.php?station=fhwx&fbclid=IwY2xjawGUjyxleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHeM3fsmQ_EK40-H3Howgd8YbHOcmrwwkPe_J0T4AciLXnJIWQFpHCq5mcA_aem_ZF3tREd95VGa4bjJFfJggg)
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Severe weather

Severe storms, tornadoes likely Sunday and Monday across the Southern Plains, South and Midwest.

Severe storms, tornadoes likely Sunday and Monday

The first snow of the season and chilly temperatures are forecast tonight through Wednesday morning for the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Not all locations will see snow, but all locations will see chilly temperatures tonight and Wednesday morning. Temperatures will fall well into the 40s for nearly all of Georgia and the Carolinas with northern Georgia, upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina seeing temperatures in the 30s with some 20s in the higher terrain of western North Carolina. Because of the cold temperatures, local National Weather Service offices have issues Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories from northeastern Georgia, upstate South Carolina into western North Carolina. Temperatures in this area will fall between 27 and 35 degrees by Wednesday morning.

**Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories**
![Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Freeze_Warnings_and_Frost_Advisories_24dda236ee.jpg)

**Low temperature forecast**
![Low temperature forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Low_temperature_forecast_16a58ba16e.png)

Paired with the cold temperatures, the first snow of the season is possible for the higher elevations of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee. The heaviest accumulations are forecast above 5,000 feet where isolated 2-4 inches are possible for the highest peaks with around 1 inch from below 5,000 feet to 4,000 feet. A rain snow mixture could fall as low as 3,000 to 3,500 feet by Wednesday morning but accumulations are not expected. Major travel impacts are not forecast and no winter weather alerts are in effect.

**Snow accumulation forecast**
![ Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_02a39617f9.jpg)

The cold and snow is concerning for some residents that are without electricity or adequate shelter after the devastating flooding from Hurricane Helene. Nearly 11,000 homes are without power in western North Carolina.

**Current power outage map**
![ Current power outage map](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_power_outage_map_c4784bf91c.png)

Temperatures stay chilly Wednesday, Thursday and Friday morning but begin to moderate Friday afternoon into the upcoming weekend.

Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories

The first snow of the season and chilly temperatures are forecast tonight through Wednesday morning for the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

First snow of the season and chilly temperatures for the higher terrain of North Carolina and Tennessee

The first taste of winter arrives Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with snow possible for the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

It's much cooler for parts of the eastern United States this evening behind a cold front, and a second, stronger push of chilly air will move into the region—moving farther south than the initial cool push—arrives Tuesday. Associated with this second surge of cool air will be enough lift and moisture to support rain showers in eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Tuesday evening. As cold air continues to move in and deepen, enough moisture remains in place for the rain to change to snow by nighttime on Tuesday with snow levels falling to 5,000 feet by sunset Tuesday, eventually falling as low as 3,000 feet Wednesday morning for whatever moisture remains.

Locations at 3,000 feet near the Tennessee/North Carolina state line won't see accumulations but above 4,000 feet could see 1-2 inches of snow with 5,000 feet and higher seeing 2-4 inches of snow with possibly the highest peaks seeing slightly higher amounts.

**Modeled snow accumulation forecast**
![Modeled snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_snow_accumulation_forecast_0cbb2f303e.png)

**NWS snow forecast**
![Modeled snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_snow_accumulation_forecast_8e09e2c6cd.JPG)

Travel is not expected to be impacted by the light snow.

Snowflake

The first taste of winter arrives Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with snow possible for the mountains of western North Carolina and eastern Tennessee.

Winter whiplash: snow this week in the North Carolina, Tennessee mountains

A Severe Geomagnetic Storm [G4]-nearing G5 strength-could make the northern lights viewable for a good chunk of the U.S. tonight, even extending as northern Florida [on the northern horizon].

**Geomagnetic Storm strengths and impacts**
![Geomagnetic Storm strengths and impacts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Geomagnetic_Storm_strengths_and_impacts_6570886ecc.png)

The favored areas to view the northern lights will be for northern and central locations in the U.S. but even parts of the South have the potential to see the northern lights tonight.

**Forecast for areas that could see the northern lights**
![ Forecast for areas that could see the northern lights](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Forecast_for_areas_that_could_see_the_northern_lights_92fbb0aa02.JPG)

The optimal timeframe will be late tonight and early Friday morning. To increase your chances of seeing the northern lights, get away from light pollution from cities and look toward the northern horizon. You also have a better shot of seeing the northern lights utilizing your phone-long exposure/night-mode.

There's a lack of significant storm system impacting the U.S. tonight so minimal cloud coverage will allow for good viewability for most folks. Parts of New England, the central U.S. Rockies and Northern Plains could see some clouds, but other areas will be clear.

**Cloud coverage forecast tonight [blue is clouds, white is clear skies]**
![Cloud coverage forecast tonight [blue is clouds, white is clear skies]](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Cloud_coverage_forecast_tonight_blue_is_clouds_white_is_clear_skies_fd8eb5c6ef.png)

Geomagnetic Storm strengths and impacts

A Severe Geomagnetic Storm [G4] could make the northern lights viewable for a good chunk of the U.S. tonight, even extending as northern Florida.

Get your latest weather forecast and alerts.

Sara forms in the Caribbean

Developing hurricane could impact Florida next week

Severe storms, tornadoes likely Sunday and Monday

First snow of the season and chilly temperatures for the higher terrain of North Carolina and Tennessee

Winter whiplash: snow this week in the North Carolina, Tennessee mountains

A Severe Geomagnetic Storm could make the northern lights viewable as far south as Florida