A winter storm will bring a prolonged period of wintry precipitation between now and Tuesday across parts of the Mid-South, Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and the lower-mid Appalachians. The winter storm has already begun to take shape farther west across the Southern Plains and Arkansas, and wintry precipitation will begin to develop east/northeast from there in the coming hours. 

**Brief Synopsis of Overall Pattern**

A very cold airmass will continue to infiltrate southeastward and get further reinforced by an incoming, potent shortwave dropping into Montana and Wyoming on Monday. At the same time, two shortwaves, both of which entered Oregon and northern California, will trek along the base of a broad trough over the U.S., enhancing upward motion in the atmosphere across a southwest-to-northeast oriented zone. Additionally, the orientation of a jet streak and low to mid-level warm advection will favor further enhancement for precipitation development (mostly snow) across a region extending from the Mid-South, Tennessee, the lower Appalachians, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic, today into tomorrow. Precipitation will also develop farther south, bringing an icy mess to parts of the Deep South.

**Snow Forecast & Discussion**

Wintry precipitation has already developed across Oklahoma/eastern Texas and Arkansas and now has begun to extend into western Tennessee, lower Missouri, and even northern Mississippi. Precipitation is mostly reaching the ground as snow, per observational reports. 

Snow will continue to fill in across northern Mississippi, Tennessee, and far northern Alabama throughout today into tonight and eventually extend into Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia, the far northwest corner of Georgia, and the lower Appalachians tonight and early Monday. 

A moderate to heavy band of snowfall accumulations will most likely occur from south-central Arkansas, northern Mississippi, far northern Alabama, much of Tennessee (except NW TN), and extending into southeastern Kentucky, southwestern Virginia, and West Virginia. This region will find itself positioned underneath favorable dynamics and thermodynamics and also likely remain cold enough through the entire atmospheric column to support mostly a snow event (though a transition to sleet/freezing rain could occur Monday night). Additionally, rain-to-snow ratios will be above average for this event, and given the long duration of snowfall expected, a large swath of 4-6+ snow accumulations will likely occur. Some areas across northern Mississippi, east-central Arkansas, and far southwestern & eastern/northeastern Tennessee will have the highest chance of reaching the 8-10 inch range with isolated areas approaching a foot.

Far southeast Tennessee, which includes Chattanooga, and far northwest Georgia remain a bit of a wildcard. It will take a little longer for snow to begin across those areas, but when it does, it should come down at a decent pace, especially on Monday. A low-level warm-nose will work its way into the area Monday night into Tuesday, changing precipitation-type to a mixed bag. Even with the better snow-to-liquid ratios being just north and northwest and the possibility of a change-over to ice, Chattanooga and far northwest Georgia still should manage to get a solid 2-4 inches of snow accumulations. 

![72-Hour Snow Accumulation Forecast (most likely to occur if all snow and at least moderate snow rate))](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/72_Hour_Snow_Accumulation_Forecast_75th_tile_8ea8f908c5.png)

72-Hour Snow Accumulation Forecast (most likely to occur if all-snow event and at least moderate snow rate)

![72-Hour Snow Accumulation Forecast (most likely to occur if warm nose is farther north and causes ice mixing issues)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/nbm_f95_snow_b5c797de7f.png)

72-Hour Snow Accumulation Forecast (most likely to occur if warm nose is farther north and causes transition to sleet/freezing rain)

![Probability of 6 inches of snow or more](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/nbm_f95_9e2a7ddecd.png)

Probability of receiving 6-inch snow accumulations or more

**Ice Forecast & Discussion**

Unfortunately, this winter storm will bring mostly ice (sleet/freezing) to eastern & south-central Texas, lower Arkansas, Louisiana, central/lower Mississippi, and northern/central Alabama (generally south of Huntsville). With southwesterly flow in the low and mid-levels, a stout warm nose will work its way northeastward, overrunning the colder, Arctic air at the surface. Surface temperatures will stay at or below freezing across these areas but not aloft. So, no snow for residents in these regions, only nasty ice. 

The farther southeast one goes, the lighter the precipitation will likely be. However, even light precipitation will result in icy accumulations in the mentioned regions, even if a glaze. It's also worth noting that sometimes you can't even tell there's ice on the road if the predominant precipitation type is freezing rain. 

We are monitoring the potential for some light wintry precipitation to fall early Tuesday as far southeast as the northwest metro of Atlanta. If this occurs, it'll be at the tail end of this event; however, even a glaze would become problematic, especially during the Tuesday morning rush hour. 

![HRRRSE_prec_frzra_048.png](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/HRRRSE_prec_frzra_048_14659e70db.png)

Freezing rain accumulation forecast from the most recent extended HRRR model

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72-Hour Snow Accumulation Forecast (most likely to occur if warm nose is farther north and causes ice mixing issues)

nbm_f95_snow.png

Southern States Brace for Snow and Ice: A Detailed Forecast

An unusual June weather pattern will trigger a severe weather outbreak across the South tonight as a potential derecho brings widespread damaging winds and tornadoes.

Thunderstorms are already ongoing early in the day but more widespread, high-impact severe storms are expected later today and tonight from eastern Texas, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana, east across Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, into northern Florida and southern South Carolina. These areas have the potential to see a few rounds of severe storms, including widespread severe wind event, that could lead to substantial wind damage. There's also the possibility of large hail and even tornadoes, some of which could be strong—EF-2 or greater.

Because of the numerous coverage of storms and high intensity storms, the Storm Prediction Center has a moderate severe risk, a level 4 of 5, for parts of the South for today and tonight. This level 4 risk area extends from northeastern Louisiana into central and southern Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia.

![Today's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_severe_risk_cbbb82a683.jpeg)

If you live in or near the severe risk, make sure you have a way to get timely, accurate warning information today and during the overnight hours.

Today's severe risk

Moderate severe risk today: strong tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail likely.

Severe outbreak expected across the South tonight

Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico just as the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season kicked off, becoming the first named storm of the 2023 season—officially being classified as Tropical Depression 2 on Thursday, June 1 and being designated Arlene on Friday, June 2. 

The good news is that the lifespan of Arlene looks short-lived as the storm slowly moves south a couple hundred miles off the west coast of Florida. The storm is not expected to undergo further strengthening and is forecast to weaken Friday through the weekend as strong winds higher up in the atmosphere rip the system apart as it slowly drifts south and east toward Cuba.

**Tropical Storm Arlene Forecas**

![ Tropical Storm Arlene Forecas](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tropical_Storm_Arlene_Forecas_bb77a9b9b1.png)

Despite the hostile atmospheric conditions leading to weakening of the system, Florida will still see some rain, gusty winds, and rough seas from Arlene Friday into the weekend, but no widespread, significant impacts are currently forecast.

**Rainfall Forecast**

![Screenshot 2023-06-02 at 3.06.37 PM.png](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2023_06_02_at_3_06_37_PM_1dc87c06c0.png)

Visible imagery of Arlene

Arlene becomes the first tropical storm of the season in the Gulf of Mexico.

Where's Tropical Storm Arlene headed?

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has increased the chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to a high chance as early as later today.

The system of interest, Invest 91L, now has a high chance of formation. The NHC gives the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf a 70% chance for development over the next 48 hours.

**NHC Tropical Outlook**

![NHC Tropical Outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Tropical_Outlook_4b5453c6a6.png)

As of Thursday early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure have become increasingly organized and it appears environmental conditions will favor further organization and a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm could develop as the low pressure is over very warm surface waters that are between 80 to 85 degrees and wind shear has lessened. That development could occur as early as later this afternoon.

The satellite appearance of the system has really improved overnight and Hurricane Hunters plan on investigating the area later today and again early Friday.

Regardless of development, Florida can expect heavy rainfall of a widespread 2-3 inches that could lead to minor flooding along with strong, gusty winds late this week and weekend.

If this system develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Arlene. Today, June 1, is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NHC Tropical Outlook

The low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico has a 70% chance for tropical development.

A tropical storm could develop in the Gulf today

The latest update from the National Hurricane Center has substantially increased the chance for tropical development in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this week.

The system of interest, Invest 91L, now has a medium chance of formation this week. The NHC gives the low pressure in the northeastern Gulf a 50% chance for development over the next 2 days.

**NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days**

![NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Tropical_Outlook_as_of_Thursday_morning_for_next_7_days_99f620ffe1.png)

As of Thursday morning, showers and thunderstorms associated with the low pressure have become increasingly organized and it appears environmental conditions could favor further organization and a tropical depression or low-end tropical storm could develop as the low pressure is over very warm surface waters that are between 80 to 85 degrees and wind shear has lessened.

The satellite appearance of the system has really improved overnight and Hurricane Hunters plan on investigating the area later Thursday and again early Friday.

Regardless of development, Florida can expect heavy rainfall of a widespread 2-3 inches that could lead to minor flooding along with strong, gusty winds.

If this system develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Arlene. Today, June 1, is the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

NHC Tropical Outlook as of Thursday morning for next 7-days

The tropical disturbance now has a medium chance of formation this week at 50%.

Substantial increase in chance for tropical development in the Gulf this week

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico is being monitored for the low-end potential for development this week and weekend. This system will bring periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Florida from midweek through this upcoming weekend, favoring central and southern parts of the state.

This developing low pressure over the central Gulf of Mexico has a low-end chance for development according to the National Hurricane Center. They give this system only a 20% chance of development over the next 7 days. Nonetheless, the NHC is monitoring this area of disturbed weather as conditions will be marginally conducive for development.

**National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast**

![ National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/National_Hurricane_Center_7_Day_Forecast_08c2e53506.png)

Regardless of tropical development, impacts are expected for Florida. Heavy rain could lead to minor flooding across the Florida Peninsula where a widespread 1-3 inches of rain is forecast with isolated higher amounts farther south approaching half a foot.

**7-Day Rainfall Forecast**

![7-Day Rainfall Forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_Day_Rainfall_Forecast_be4ab5be77.png)

Wind gusts will generally be in the 20 to 30 mph range this weekend as the low pressure treks across the Florida Peninsula. The strongest winds look to occur late this weekend along the East Coast of the Florida Peninsula as the low appears to organize further over the warm Gulf Stream off the Southeast Coast.

Despite the only low-end chance for development, this time of the year in such warm waters, any system needs to be closely monitored. Keep checking back for updates.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on Thursday, June 1.

 National Hurricane Center 7-Day Forecast

Low pressure in the Gulf is being monitored for the low-end potential for development this week.

All blogs

Southern States Brace for Snow and Ice: A Detailed Forecast

Severe outbreak expected across the South tonight

Where's Tropical Storm Arlene headed?

A tropical storm could develop in the Gulf today

Substantial increase in chance for tropical development in the Gulf this week

Gulf disturbance will bring rain & wind to Florida this week