A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee until 6 PM CST. Conditions are coming together for the possibility of storms to produce tornadoes this afternoon and evening in and around the watch area. Additional watches may be needed throughout the day. [See more details on this severe weather event](https://firsthandweather.com/severe-storms-tornadoes-are-likely-today-with-strong-tornadoes-possible/).

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/FL_0_CL_63_VUAYJ_9dj_6659b61673.jpeg)

Please have a plan in place in case a warning is issued, and have reliable sources to get the latest warnings from.

Tornado Watch issued

Today will be an active severe weather tornado for parts of the South, Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Southeast, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic. Thunderstorms have already developed this morning west of the Mississippi River. These storms are expected to become severe and advance east throughout the late morning and into the afternoon & evening hours. There is the possibility for thunderstorms to produce tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. **[Watch a video on this severe event](https://www.facebook.com/becomesupporter/136842186352541/)**.

Because of the thunderstorm potential, risk areas have been included for the aforementioned areas by the Storm Prediction Center. The risk area extends from eastern Texas/Oklahoma east to the Carolinas/Virginia. There’s a low risk (dark green), medium risk (yellow), and high risk (orange). If you live in a risk area, you need to take the thunderstorm risk seriously, even if you’re “just” in a low-risk area–severe storms will still be possible, possibly just in more of an isolated nature.

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/F_Lzj_P_Yg_X0_A_Yi_UGS_7fceb69fbe.jpeg)

Thursday’s severe risk area

All modes of severe weather are possible including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. It’s possible a couple of strong tornadoes will occur too. The greatest concern for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, will be within the high-risk area extending into the medium-risk area. The severe risk will start early in the day west of the Mississippi River and advance east throughout the day into the afternoon and evening hours.

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/F_Lzj_PZ_1_WYAA_Ote_N_88dccf5ff3.jpeg)

Tornado probability

If you live in a risk area, please have a plan in place in case a warning is issued. Know what to do and where to go in your home. Don’t forget about the pets!

Severe storms & tornadoes are likely today with strong tornadoes possible

Thursday will be an active severe weather tornado for parts of the South, Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Southeast, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic. A thunderstorm event is expected to develop early in the day west of the Mississippi River and advance east throughout the day, continuing into the evening and nighttime hours. There will be the possibility for thunderstorms to produce tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. **[Watch a video on this severe event](https://www.facebook.com/becomesupporter/136842186352541/)**.

Because of the thunderstorm potential, risk areas have been included for the aforementioned areas by the Storm Prediction Center. The risk area extends from eastern Texas/Oklahoma east to the Carolinas/Virginia. There’s a low risk (yellow), medium risk (orange), and high risk (red). If you live in a risk area, you need to take the thunderstorm risk seriously, even if you’re “just” in a low-risk area–severe storms will still be possible, possibly just in more of an isolated nature.

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/F_Lv_FI_Wa_XMA_Am2rb_627769ee0a.jpeg)

Thursday’s thunderstorm outlook (GRAPHIC COURTESY WCNC TV: wcnc.com)

All modes of severe weather are possible including tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. It’s possible a couple of strong tornadoes will occur too. The greatest concern for tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, will be within the high-risk area extending into the medium-risk area. The severe risk will start early in the day west of the Mississippi River and advance east throughout the day into the afternoon and evening hours.

If you live in a risk area, please have a plan in place in case a warning is issued. Know what to do and where to go in your home. Don’t forget about the pets!

Severe storms & tornadoes are possible Thursday; strong tornadoes possible

A strong cold front will blast into the South & Southeast on Saturday. Behind the cold front, significantly colder air will rush into the region. Once the cold front moves through, the parent mid/upper-level system will move overhead across the South & Southeast late-Saturday into early-Sunday. This upper-air system will be rigorous, which will create strong lift over the region; however, moisture will be minimal and the upper-air system will traverse across the area in a position that won’t optimize precipitation development. With that said, there’s the possibility enough lift & moisture will lead to a band of quick-hitting post-frontal precipitation to develop across parts of the South & Southeast late-Saturday into early-Sunday, especially if the upper-air system traverses across the region in a more favorable position.

Recent hi-res, short-range models are showing the possibility of a narrow band of snow developing across the region so we must keep a close eye on this evolving forecast over the coming hours.

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_fh23_48_f100f4b038.gif)

Hi-res, short-range model future radar late-Saturday into Sunday

The areas that have the best chance to see wintry precipitation development will be across eastern Mississippi, Alabama, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, Upstate South Carolina, and North Carolina. It should be noted: there’s a higher probability for snow across North Carolina on Sunday as this system becomes in a more favorable position to enhance lift & moisture. Also, a narrow band of snow cannot be ruled out in western & central Tennessee, eastern Arkansas, and northern Mississippi earlier in the afternoon hours on Saturday (before the second area of snow potentially develops).

I want to point out, this is an outside chance but something to monitor. I’m not necessarily comfortable talking accumulations because of the uncertainty but I will include an accumulation map from the latest hi-res model. If this band of snow develops, a light coating cannot be ruled out on elevated surfaces but most areas won’t see accumulations or snow. There’s a better chance for light accumulations across the higher terrain of eastern Tennesee and western North Carolina.

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_02_11_at_3_23_34_PM_f143a93c53.png)

Hi-res, short-range model snow accumulation forecast

Keep checking back for updates!

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Snow for the South & Southeast Saturday & Sunday?

There’s a growing concern for severe storms next week from Texas to Alabama on Wednesday & Thursday. [This is a storm risk we have been monitoring & discussing in the Firsthand Weather Supporter Group](https://www.facebook.com/becomesupporter/136842186352541/). The Storm Prediction Center has now issued a slight risk for severe storms both Wednesday & Thursday as an upper-level system tracks across the region. Ahead of the upper-level system, a spring-like air mass will return across these regions after this weekend’s cold front. This spring-like air mass will allow for thunderstorms, some of which may become severe Wednesday afternoon in Texas & Oklahoma, spreading east into Arkansas & Louisiana overnight, and eventually into southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, western Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama on Thursday.

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/FL_Uh1py_WQA_Ao9is_1a1f62a7b1.jpeg)

There are still some questions on the specifics and a lot of changes will be needed over the coming days but it does appear all modes of severe weather could occur, including tornadoes. This is a good reminder that severe weather can and does occur in February. Stay tuned!

Severe storms are possible next week

A quick-hitting chance for light wintry precipitation is expected overnight into Monday morning for parts of the Carolinas. A weak area of low pressure will develop near the coast of the Carolinas spreading moisture into the region. This moisture will interact with cold air at the surface allowing for the possibility of light wintry precipitation for parts of Upstate South Carolina (the Counties that border North Carolina) and central & western North Carolina early in the day Monday.

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/HRRR_3_km_North_Carolina_Simulated_Radar_5da3ec2f7c.gif)

Simulated radar Monday morning (pink color depicts wintry mixture)

The temperature profile of the atmosphere suggests temperatures at or below freezing for the aforementioned areas with a warm layer above the surface above freezing. This means snow is not expected, and freezing rain, possibly with some sleet, is expected Monday morning. The precipitation will be short-lived so significant accumulations are not expected but a light glaze cannot be ruled out on elevated surfaces before the freezing precipitation transitions back to rain as temperatures warm above freezing by lunchtime.

A few cities that could see freezing rain include Greensboro (NC), Durham (NC), Winston-Salem (NC), Charlotte (NC), and Spartanburg (SC).

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_02_06_at_8_19_08_PM_e41ca84fac.png)

Freezing rain accumulation forecast

No major icing issues are expected but be careful on elevated roadways Monday morning.

All blogs

Tornado Watch issued

Severe storms & tornadoes are likely today with strong tornadoes possible

Severe storms & tornadoes are possible Thursday; strong tornadoes possible

Snow for the South & Southeast Saturday & Sunday?

Severe storms are possible next week

Freezing rain is possible Monday morning for parts of the Carolinas