We have entered meteorological spring and severe thunderstorms & tornadoes enter the forefront of people’s minds. On cue, there is a chance for severe thunderstorms Sunday for parts of the South. Moisture & warmth will grow across the region this week into the upcoming weekend. A frontal boundary and upper air system will sneak into the region late Sunday. This will be enough to help trigger showers and storms late Sunday. These storms could become strong, potentially severe, as they tap into the moisture & warmth that will build across the region.

This is still several days out so there are some questions surrounding the exact setup and what ingredients and the amount of those ingredients will come together to support severe weather. At this time, it appears the energy levels or “jet fuel” to support severe thunderstorms will be sufficient enough to allow for severe storms but not be anything too noteworthy. However, the wind directions & speed & changes in the directions & speed at different layers of the atmosphere will be pronounced enough to compensate for the lack of “jet fuel” leading to a solid chance for strong to severe storms. While early, it appears tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all possible late Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight severe risk area, or a level 2 of 5, from northeastern Texas and southeastern Oklahoma into much of Arkansas, far northwestern Mississippi, southeastern Missouri, and western Tennessee. This is where there is the best chance for severe storms Sunday evening & night. Additional areas will likely be added to this risk area and upgrades are possible over the coming days.

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Sunday’s severe risk area

If you live in or around this area, go ahead and keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days and prepare for the possibility of severe weather on Sunday. You will want reliable weather sources to receive weather information from along with a plan on what to do in case a warning is issued for your area.

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Severe storms Sunday for parts of the South

Parts of the Southeast have been quite warm over the past several days but a brief break from the warmth is expected as a cold front continues to slowly move south. The cold front will lose some of its punch but will still bring a cooldown to many areas over the next few days. While high temperatures won’t be abnormally cold, it’ll feel colder because it’s been so warm, and there is the possibility of some areas falling to freezing Sunday night through Tuesday night.

Tennessee, most of Mississippi, central & northern Alabama, central & northern Georgia, and most of the Carolinas have the chance to see temperatures either fall to or below freezing and/or have the possibility of a frost Sunday night through Tuesday night. While this doesn’t pipe burst nor is it record cold, it’s cold enough to hurt or kill sensitive vegetation. With temperatures so warm last week, it’s possible some people have planted gardens or flowers, so if this is you, make sure you protect the vegetation with this brief cool snap.

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Monday morning temperatures

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Tuesday morning temperatures

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Wednesday morning temperatures

Temperatures warm by the middle of next week!

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Brief break from the warmth in the Southeast; overnight freeze possible

A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of Alabama and Mississippi until 12 AM CST. Conditions have become favorable for the development of nocturnal tornadoes in and around the watch area. The watch includes Jackson, MS; Tupelo, MS; Huntsville, AL; and Tuscaloosa, AL. The University of Alabama, Mississippi State University, and the University of Mississippi are also included in the watch area.

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If you live in or near the watch, please have a way to receive warnings tonight from a reliable source, and have a plan in place for your family and you in case a warning is issued.

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Tornado Watch issued for parts of Alabama and Mississippi

An active workweek is shaping up for southern parts of the county. Thunderstorms will have the capability to produce severe weather and flash flooding. The thunderstorm chances get going quickly to start the workweek. On Monday, there is a chance for severe thunderstorms extending from the Southern Plains into the Mid-South for Monday afternoon, evening, and into the nighttime hours.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted an area in this region from northern Texas north and east into western Kentucky for the potential of severe thunderstorms. There is a Level 1 \[also known as a marginal risk\] severe risk (dark green) and a Level 2 \[also known as a slight risk\] severe risk (yellow) across the region on Monday.

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Monday’s thunderstorm outlook from the SPC

All modes of severe weather are possible late-in-the-day Monday. This includes damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. The greatest tornado probability exists from northern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, northern Louisiana, northwestern Mississippi, western Tennessee, southern Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky.

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Monday’s tornado probability forecast from the SPC

The severe thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday but the storm chances shift farther south and east. Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day on Tuesday for the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley.

The SPC has highlighted parts of this region from southeastern Texas north and east into southern Kentucky for the potential of severe thunderstorms. There is a Level 1 \[also known as a marginal risk\] severe risk (dark green) and a Level 2 \[also known as a slight risk\] severe risk (yellow) across the region on Tuesday.

All modes of severe weather are possible Tuesday. This includes damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat appears to be from northeastern Louisiana into Mississippi, south-central Tennessee, and northwestern Alabama within the Level 2 severe risk.

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Tuesday’s thunderstorm outlook from the SPC

Not are severe thunderstorms a concern but so is heavy rainfall. Heavy rain is expected across the region this workweek in which a widespread 1-3 inches of rain is in the forecast with a bullseye of 3-6 inches over northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, western North Carolina, Tennesee, Kentucky, and West Virginia. This is where there is a low-end flood risk on Monday & Tuesday with another heavy rain (possibly some freezing rain & wintry precipitation) Thursday into Friday for parts of Arkansas, northwestern Tennesee, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

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Precipitation forecast from the WPC

If you live within or near a severe risk area outlined on the maps above or near or within the heavy rain zone, please make sure you’re aware of your surroundings. Have reliable sources to receive weather information and warnings from, and know what to do if a warning is issued for your area.

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Severe storms and flooding are possible this week

The drought continues to worsen across parts of the South with abnormally dry conditions for parts of the Southeast & Carolinas. The hardest-hit areas are currently Mississippi, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Looking ahead to next week, it appears a wet weather pattern will develop across the aforementioned areas with the possibility of areas of heavy rainfall that could increase the flooding concerns.

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Latest drought monitor (2/17/22) for the South

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Latest drought monitor (2/17/22) for the Southeast

A weather pattern that will favor thunderstorm development is expected from early to mid-week across parts of the South, Mid-South, Tennessee Valley, and parts of the Carolinas & Southeast. This wetter weather pattern is good given the increased dry conditions and numerous fires across the region, but there could be too much rain too fast.

Numerical guidance is suggesting a widespread 2-4 inches of rain with amounts over 6 inches may fall across parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, and the Carolinas that could lead to flooding the majority of the upcoming week. The WPC agrees with the numerical guidance and has a forecast painting a wet picture next week for parts of the South, Mid-South, and Tennessee Valley.

![](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/wpc_qpf_168h_p_us_se_986c244b85.png)

Rainfall forecast through next week

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Rainfall forecast through next week

This forecast is still several days out so some changes will be needed but keep checking back as the finer details become clearer over the coming days. It’s a good reminder if you live in a flood-prone area to just go ahead and start keeping an eye on the forecast and know what to do given a heavy rain scenario for your area.

Eyeing the potential for thunderstorms & flooding next week for parts of the South

A new, second Tornado Watch ([here’s the first Tornado Watch](https://firsthandweather.com/tornado-watch-issued/)) has been issued for parts of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee until 8 PM CST. Conditions are coming together for the possibility of storms to produce tornadoes this afternoon and evening in and around the watch area. Additional watches may be needed throughout the day. [See more details on this severe weather event](https://firsthandweather.com/severe-storms-tornadoes-are-likely-today-with-strong-tornadoes-possible/).

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Please have a plan in place in case a warning is issued, and have reliable sources to get the latest warnings from.

All blogs

Severe storms Sunday for parts of the South

Brief break from the warmth in the Southeast; overnight freeze possible

Tornado Watch issued for parts of Alabama and Mississippi

Severe storms and flooding are possible this week

Eyeing the potential for thunderstorms & flooding next week for parts of the South

Second Tornado Watch issued