Hurricane Helene continues to intensify and is forecast to become a Major Hurricane this afternoon afternoon, making landfall as a Major Hurricane tonight in Florida, bringing an unsurvivable storm surge to parts of Florida and catastrophic flooding from rain well inland into parts of Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas tonight, Friday and Saturday.

Helene is a Category 2 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph with higher gusts. The Hurricane is tracking north-northeast off the West Coast of Florida—movement is at 14 mph. Landfall is forecast tonight in the Big Bend region of Florida as a strong Category 3 or Category 4 Major Hurricane.

**Helene latest and forecast track**
![Helene latest and forecast track](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Helene_latest_and_forecast_track_729762ac46.jpg)

This is where the highest storm surge is forecast, up to 20 feet above dry ground. If you have family or friends along coastal Florida, near the Big Bend, or if you live there, listen to all local evacuation orders and take them seriously. The National Hurricane Center is calling this storm surge 'unsurvivable' for these areas.

**Storm surge forecast**
![Storm surge forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Storm_surge_forecast_05ee1511a6.jpg)

The Hurricane continues to expand in size, and due to the size, an intensity at landfall, hurricane and tropical storm-force conditions will be felt far inland across the Southeast where Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings extend across the entire state of Georgia into the Carolinas along with High Wind Warnings extending into Tennessee and Virginia. These winds will cause power outages especially due to the foliage on the trees and stressed trees due to the ongoing drought conditions. Be cautious if your house is surrounded by large trees and go ahead and prepare to lose power, possibly for weeks in some cases.

**Hurricane and tropical storm alerts**
![Hurricane and tropical storm alerts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Hurricane_and_tropical_storm_alerts_358d9e69ad.jpg)

Along with the wind spreading inland, the big concern will be the heavy rain across the Southeast into the Ohio Valley, measured in feet of rain in some cases across the southern Appalachians where terrain and a boundary nearby enhance the tropical rains from Helene. There's a very rare High Risk for flooding in this region, extending across Georgia into western parts of the Carolinas from tonight, Friday into Saturday. It's possible northeastern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina see 18-24 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts of rain. This will cause catastrophic, life-threatening impacts. If you live in the region, in a flood prone area, consider evacuating and keep a close eye on the forecast. Never cross a roadway covered by water.

**Helene rainfall forecast**
![Helene rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Helene_rainfall_forecast_d51ff2e50a.jpg)

**High flood risk in pink shaded area Thursday night through Saturday**
![High flood risk in pink shaded area Thursday night through Saturday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/High_flood_risk_in_pink_shaded_area_Thursday_night_through_Saturday_fdc3d167cc.JPG)

Please take Helene seriously. Have multiple, reliable sources to receive weather information from.

High flood risk in pink shaded area Thursday night through Saturday

Helene to bring unsurvivable storm surge and catastrophic inland flooding as it makes landfall Thursday night.

Helene to bring unsurvivable storm surge and catastrophic inland flooding

Tropical Storm Helene has formed in the northwestern Caribbean. Helene has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph as of Tuesday morning but intensification, potentially rapid, is forecast the remainder of Tuesday through Thursday before landfall.

**Helene forecast track**
![Helene forecast track](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Helene_forecast_track_c058d6d056.jpg)

Landfall is expected Thursday evening in Florida somewhere along the Florida Panhandle or Coastal Bend of Florida as a Major Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 115 mph. Not only are winds with Helene a concern but the storm surge is expected to be a significant factor with the hurricane along with isolated tornadoes and heavy rain that could lead to areas of flooding.

The heavy rain moves inland across the South, Southeast, into the Carolinas, Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, potentially spreading into Ozark region from late week through the weekend where a widespread 3 to 7 inches of rain will fall. Isolated higher amounts are possible especially from terrain enhancements across the region.

**7-day rainfall forecast**
![7-day rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_day_rainfall_forecast_3893b86303.png)
![7-day rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_day_rainfall_forecast_026884b914.png)

Helene forecast track

Tropical Storm Helene forms in the Caribbean, expected to make landfall as a Major Hurricane on Thursday.

Helene develops, forecast to make landfall as major hurricane, flooding spreads inland

Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 has been designated in the Caribbean by the National Hurricane Center as of Monday morning.

The NHC also issued its first cone on PTC9, which will become Hurricane Helene by early Wednesday and it crosses between the western tip of Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

**Forecast cone from the NHC
**
![Forecast cone from the NHC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Forecast_cone_from_the_NHC_6e01f50dc0.jpg)

Helene will then undergo rapid intensification into a Major Hurricane later Wednesday and Thursday, making landfall in Florida on Thursday as a Major Hurricane between the Big Bend or Panhandle. The system will then move inland on Friday and over the weekend, spreading heavy rain inland across the South and Southeast that could lead to areas of flooding.

Forecast cone from the NHC

Helene forecast to make landfall as Major Hurricane on Thursday in Florida.

Helene forecast to make landfall as Major Hurricane on Thursday

We will likely have Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico this week. The area that's been monitored for development over the past few days is now classified as Invest 97L. Invest 97L has a high chance--80%--of development with a tropical system developing as early as the next 36-48 hours.

**NHC forecast**
![NHC forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_ddfeccc0ad.jpg)

This area that's being monitored is now classified as an 'Invest' because it's now being investigated. In terms of data and information, this is good, because allows for more computer models will forecast intensity and track over the coming days. Another great source of information will come from the Hurricane Hunters who will begin investigating the area of interest on Monday.


While it's too early to get into the exact specifics, which is nearly impossible at this point without a developed system or center of circulation, the early guidance is clustered, showing a potential landfall somewhere around Big Bend of Florida to the Florida Panhandle late Thursday into early Friday. 

**GEPS center forecast track**
![GEPS center forecast track](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/GEPS_center_forecast_track_95e7d35ae1.png)

**GEFS center forecast track**
![97L_gefs_latest.png](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/97_L_gefs_latest_f8ed9dfa37.png)

Please keep in mind, this is not set in stone. Notice the guidance, while clustered around the Big Bend of Florida to the Florida Panhandle, does show quite a bit of spread from Louisiana to the Southwest Coast of Florida, so all residents along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the forecast this week.

The majority of models are showing this system, Helene, likely becoming a hurricane beyond midweek, making landfall, again either late Thursday or early Friday, as a hurricane. Guidance generally agrees Helene will achieve strength of a Category 1 to Category. But again, this is far from certain, and the system could be weaker or stronger.

**Modeled intensity forecast**
![Modeled intensity forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_intensity_forecast_2325ee2a38.png)

Regardless of intensity, all residents in the eventual path, or nearby, need to keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days. Storm surge will be a concern for coastal areas but inland flooding from heavy rain becomes a concern late week into the upcoming weekend—from Friday through Sunday—for parts of the South and Southeast.

**Rainfall forecast next 7-days**
![Rainfall forecast next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Rainfall_forecast_next_7_days_3acad23795.png)

![Rainfall forecast next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Rainfall_forecast_next_7_days_83ac599c90.png)

Rainfall forecast next 7-days

Hurricane likely to make landfall late week along the Gulf Coast spreading heavy rain inland across the Southeast.

Hurricane likely to make landfall late week, heavy rain spreads inland

There's growing confidence of a tropical storm, possibly a hurricane, in the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late this week.

The National Hurricane Center is now confident a tropical system will develop over the next couple to few days and are giving high odds for development at 70%.

**NHC forecast**
![NHC forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_68735bd4d7.JPG)

Development is initially expected to be slow, occurring somewhere within the western Caribbean, south-central Gulf of Mexico or Yucatán Peninsula around Tuesday to midweek.

Keep in mind, since the system has yet to develop, the guidance will be all over the place with the potential track and intensity. However, the pattern will favor a track into the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late this week. 

The latest guidance has continued to trend toward a north-central to northeast Gulf Coast potential track by late week (Thursday-Friday).

Please keep in mind, there's quite a bit of uncertainty with track and intensity so all residents along the Gulf Coast should keep a close eye on the forecast this week. It should also be noted, impacts will spread inland somewhere across the South and/or Southeast late week into the weekend once the system makes landfall.

This system will be named Helene.

NHC forecast

There's growing confidence of a tropical storm, possibly a hurricane, in the Gulf of Mexico from mid to late this week. Impacts possible along Gulf Coast.

Growing concerns of hurricane in the Gulf, U.S. impacts possible

The odds continue to increase for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean next week and there's now a 60% chance for a tropical system according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center over the next 7 days. 

**National Hurricane Center forecast**

![NHC forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_0e6f42ccf8.JPG)

These odds will likely increase over the weekend as all indicators suggest this development as atmospheric conditions become favorable for tropical development.

While confidence is increasing in the chance for development, there are still questions about exactly where development occurs, the eventual track and strength. This isn't uncommon as this system has yet to develop and is still a few to several days out from development.

While those specifics are murky, guidance suggests the steering pattern next week could favor a northward path into the central Gulf of Mexico if a system does develop. Beyond that timeframe, anything is possible, from a continued northward trajectory or even a northeast or northwest movement. All residents along the Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas should keep a close eye on the forecast over the weekend and next week.

Any direct impacts to the United States wouldn't occur until the end of next week or that following weekend.

NHC forecast over the next 7 days

Increasing odds for a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico next week. Gulf residents need to keep a close eye on the forecast.

All blogs

Helene to bring unsurvivable storm surge and catastrophic inland flooding

Helene develops, forecast to make landfall as major hurricane, flooding spreads inland

Helene forecast to make landfall as Major Hurricane on Thursday

Hurricane likely to make landfall late week, heavy rain spreads inland

Growing concerns of hurricane in the Gulf, U.S. impacts possible

Tropical system likely in the Gulf next week