The latest update from the National Hurricane Center calls for a Major Category 3 Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph with higher gusts. This new advisory also calls for Milton to potentially maintain that peak intensity as it nears the western Florida peninsula on Wednesday—either late morning or early afternoon--tropical storm-force winds begin late Tuesday, increasing to hurricane-force by early Wednesday.

**Latest (Saturday evening) NHC forecast cone for Milton**
![ Latest (Saturday evening) NHC forecast cone for Milton](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Latest_Saturday_evening_NHC_forecast_cone_for_Milton_8d10f87618.jpg)

**Latest (Saturday evening) NHC forecast cone for Milton-hyperlocal**
![ Latest (Saturday evening) NHC forecast cone for Milton-hyperlocal](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Latest_Saturday_evening_NHC_forecast_cone_for_Milton_hyperlocal_59212217dc.jpg)

This intensity and trajectory of Milton will create a large storm surge for parts of the western Florida Peninsula coastline. The highest storm surge will be on the southern side of the hurricane as it moves east toward Florida, potentially 10-15 feet in some cases. The specifics will be ironed out over the coming day(s).

While the latest forecast has the center of the cone directly over Tampa Bay, which would potentially make this quite devastating for the city, it does not mean the eye will track directly over Tampa. Instead, it could lie anywhere within the cone. Regardless of landfall location, impacts from this hurricane will be felt well beyond where the center makes landfall so, please prepare if you live anywhere in Florida.

Keep a close eye on the forecast for important updates. 

 Latest (Saturday evening) NHC forecast cone for Milton-hyperlocal

Milton is forecast to become a Major Category 3 Hurricane making landfall in Florida midweek.

Milton to become Major Category 3 Hurricane, Florida landfall midweek

Tropical Depression Fourteen formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning, quickly becoming Tropical Storm Milton.

**Tropical Storm Milton NHC forecast cone**
![TD14 NHC forecast cone](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/TD_14_NHC_forecast_cone_0c78c557a7.jpg)

This storm is quickly organizing, driven by the abnormally warm water temperatures. Milton has winds of 40 mph and is moving NNE at 3 mph and has observed a noticeable increase in convection with the area of low pressure over the past 12 hours.

**Current satellite imagery of TD14**
![Current satellite imagery of TD14](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_satellite_imagery_of_TD_14_4b2f0e9b35.png)

Ahead of Milton, the water temperatures remain above normal and environmental conditions will favor intensification this weekend, through midweek, before landfall along the western Florida peninsula as potentially a high-end category 2 or low-end category 3 hurricane sometime Wednesday morning. Regardless of category 2 or 3 status, impacts will be the same so don't focus on whether or not it'll be a 2 or 3. At this time, the areas that could see landfall are between Cedar Key to Everglades City. This means Tampa and Fort Myers are in that zone. Over the next 36 to 48 hours, models will continue to tighten and hone-in on a most probable landfall region.

Deadly storm surge and heavy rain that will lead to life-threatening flooding are two big concerns with Milton. Wind and tornadoes are additional hazards. Please review your hurricane and evacuation plans this weekend and be in go-mode once local officials make the call. Now is a good time to go the grocery store to get essentials before it gets too hectic.

The majority of impacts with Milton will be realized in Florida, and at this time, moisture is forecast to stay south of the heavily impacted areas from Helene in western North Carolina, upstate South Carolina, eastern Tennessee, and northeastern Georgia. Keep checking back for updates.

TD14 NHC forecast cone

Milton forms in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, forecast to become a hurricane, making landfall in Florida midweek.

Milton forms in the Gulf, could become Major Hurricane

A broad area of low pressure is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico. Additional, gradual development is possible over the next few days and a tropical or subtropical storm could form around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe of next week.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds for development to 70% over the next 7-days.

**NHC forecast**
[NHC forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_5962901e1e.JPG)

This system is the remnants of Tropical Depression 11 from the Eastern Pacific (its associated moisture and vorticity--or spin) pairing with another broad area of disturbed weather, which are expected to form into a new area of low pressure. This new area of low pressure could form into a tropical or subtropical storm over the next few days as it slowly moves east-northeast toward the central Gulf of Mexico. There's been a noticeable trend in this scenario over the past few days with numerical guidance jumping on board. 

While there are questions about the exact evolution of this system, there's good agreeance that this system will move toward Florida, increasing rain chances next week. If this system develops, it'll near the western Florida peninsula coast sometime around Wednesday next week, possibly lingering over the state through the end of the week, producing widespread heavy rainfall. Regardless of development or intensity, increased rain and associated flooding is likely for Florida next week where locally up to a foot of rain could fall across the Florida peninsula.

**WPC 7-day rainfall forecast**
[WPC 7-day rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/WPC_7_day_rainfall_forecast_b204da8f05.png)

Interests in Florida should closely monitor the forecast. Milton is the next name. Rain from this system is not forecast for Tennessee and North Carolina.

NHC forecast

A broad area of low pressure is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico. Additional, gradual development is possible over the next few days and a tropical or subtropical storm could form around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe of next week. Flooding likely in Florida next week.

New system developing in the Gulf, flooding likely in Florida 

All eyes are on the potential for a new developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this week and any potential impacts to the U.S.

Numerical guidance continues suggesting the potential of a tropical system developing in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico this week. While guidance is struggling with the exact setup, the National Hurricane Center has moderate confidence in a system developing, thus, there's a 50% chance for development in this region this week. 

**NHC tropical forecast**
![NHC Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Gulf_of_Mexico_and_Caribbean_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_0a104d0fdc.JPG)

While there's increasing confidence in development, there's a lack of confidence in where the system develops, where it moves and the intensity, and hence, any impacts—if any—to the U.S., especially for areas recovering from devastating rains from Helene.

Regardless of tropical development, it does appear tropical moisture could be funneled into parts of the Southeast late this week into the weekend, possibly sticking around into early next week. Guidance suggests a ridge will set up shop over southern Florida and the western Atlantic and the flow around the ridge could help direct moisture into this region. With that steering pattern around the ridge, eyes will be kept close on any tropical system that develops for a similar trajectory as the tropical moisture. Let's be clear, a tropical system impacting the Southeast is not currently in the forecast but keep checking back for updates over the coming days.

Because of this developing ridge placement and the pool of moisture that's building over the Gulf, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the Southeast in a flood risk hazard from western parts of the Florida Coast into the Southeast, including the Carolinas. The hazard outlook highlights where flooding is possible and likely.

**WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook**
![WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/WPC_3_7_day_hazard_outlook_dac0e9c9b8.png)

**WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook Southeast**
![WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook Southeast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/WPC_3_7_day_hazard_outlook_Southeast_2986f1a7c3.jpg)

With that said, there are some questions as to how much moisture resides over the region, any potential mechanisms to enhance precipitation and the northward extend of the moisture fetch. The latest 7-day precipitation forecast keeps the focal and heaviest of rain south of I-10 across the South and Southeast, which is great news for areas farther north into Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee that do not need any additional rain. With that said, this is fluid and subject to change, especially if a tropical system does develop.

**WPC 7-day precipitation forecast**
![WPC 7-day precipitation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/WPC_7_day_precipitation_forecast_f91c8daa31.png)

This is a waiting game, but it needs to at least be put "on the radar" that there's some concern for more moisture to move into parts of the Southeast late this week into the weekend and there's the potential for a tropical system. Keep checking back for updates.

WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook Southeast

All eyes are on the potential for a new developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this week and any potential impacts to the U.S., if any.

More moisture, flood concerns for parts of the Southeast

There's growing confidence and concern in a tropical system developing in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico this week.

The National Hurricane Center has gradually increased the odds of development to 50%, or a medium chance, over the next 7-days. Numerical guidance is bullish on some type of development, suggesting probable development somewhere in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico, possibly as early as midweek. It's likely that the odds from the NHC will continue to increase through the first half of this week as environmental conditions will favor gradual development.

**NHC Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean forecast over the next 7 days**
![NHC Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Gulf_of_Mexico_and_Caribbean_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_0a104d0fdc.JPG)

A low pressure is forecast to establish itself somewhere over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek and may continue to track into the Gulf from mid to late week, the Thursday-Friday timeframe. This low pressure could become a Tropical Depression by midweek, possibly gradually strengthening into a Tropical Storm by late week. The exact placement is uncertain and guidance, while bullish on some type of development, are struggling with where the main low develops and forms into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. Beyond the Thursday-Friday timeframe, things grow increasingly uncertain--as expected--without a developed system and being around a week out, on where the potential tropical cyclone moves, so there's high uncertainty with any potential intensity and track along with which areas could see impacts. 

While the steering currents are unknown, it does suggest the potential is at least there for some type of Gulf Coast impacts, such as increased moisture and rain, but this is subject to change. There has been a slight trend toward the north-central or northeastern Gulf Coast. It should be noted, that is not a forecast and impacts to this part of the Gulf Coast are not set in stone but it is a trend that should be monitored. Any impacts to the Gulf Coast would be this upcoming weekend and/or early that following week. It should be noted, however, direct impacts to the Gulf Coast are not a certainty but cannot be ruled out at this time. Keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days if you live along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, or have travel plans to this region.

**GEFS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)**
![GEFS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/GEFS_forecast_bright_colors_orange_yellow_show_where_the_low_pressure_could_be_located_d6a269c167.png)

**GEPS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)
**
![GEPS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/GEPS_forecast_bright_colors_orange_yellow_show_where_the_low_pressure_could_be_located_f55216021d.png)

Not only is the Gulf of Mexico being monitored for activity, but the rest of the Atlantic Basin is also quite busy with Hurricane Isaac (several hundred miles northwest of the Azores) and Tropical Storm Joyce (located over the central Atlantic Ocean) along with two other locations being monitored for development.

**NHC Atlantic Basin forecast over the next 7 days**
![NHC Atlantic Basin forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Atlantic_Basin_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_86bd7fdc75.jpg)

Isaac and Joyce are not expected to impact the U.S. The other two areas of potential development are not an immediate risk to the U.S. but need to be monitored over the next week to week and a half.

GEPS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)

A new tropical system could emerge in the Gulf of Mexico this week. Impacts possible to Gulf Coast.

New tropical system could emerge in the Gulf this week

There's growing confidence in a tropical system developing in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next 7-days.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development to 40%, or a medium chance, over the next 7-days. Numerical guidance is bullish on development, suggesting a high chance for development. It's likely that the odds from the NHC will continue to increase over the weekend into early next week.

**NHC forecast over the next 7 days**
![NHC forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_1f885e8e84.JPG)

The low pressure is forecast to establish itself over the western Caribbean early this upcoming week, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico around midweek and continue churning over the Gulf from mid to late week, the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Beyond this timeframe, things grow increasingly questionable, as expected, without a developed system and being around a week out.

While there is here is high uncertainty with any potential intensity and track, it does appear environmental conditions will favor this system becoming a tropical cyclone.

An early look at steering currents does suggest the potential is at least there for Gulf Coast impacts, but again, this is subject to change as there is uncertainty. Any impacts to the Gulf Coast would be late this upcoming week or next weekend. It should be noted, direct impacts to the Gulf Coast are not a certainty but cannot be ruled out at this time.

Keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days. 

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Milton to become Major Category 3 Hurricane, Florida landfall midweek

Milton forms in the Gulf, could become Major Hurricane

New system developing in the Gulf, flooding likely in Florida

More moisture, flood concerns for parts of the Southeast

New tropical system could emerge in the Gulf this week

Increasing odds of new tropical system in Gulf