A broad area of low pressure is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico. Additional, gradual development is possible over the next few days and a tropical or subtropical storm could form around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe of next week.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds for development to 70% over the next 7-days.

**NHC forecast**
[NHC forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_5962901e1e.JPG)

This system is the remnants of Tropical Depression 11 from the Eastern Pacific (its associated moisture and vorticity--or spin) pairing with another broad area of disturbed weather, which are expected to form into a new area of low pressure. This new area of low pressure could form into a tropical or subtropical storm over the next few days as it slowly moves east-northeast toward the central Gulf of Mexico. There's been a noticeable trend in this scenario over the past few days with numerical guidance jumping on board. 

While there are questions about the exact evolution of this system, there's good agreeance that this system will move toward Florida, increasing rain chances next week. If this system develops, it'll near the western Florida peninsula coast sometime around Wednesday next week, possibly lingering over the state through the end of the week, producing widespread heavy rainfall. Regardless of development or intensity, increased rain and associated flooding is likely for Florida next week where locally up to a foot of rain could fall across the Florida peninsula.

**WPC 7-day rainfall forecast**
[WPC 7-day rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/WPC_7_day_rainfall_forecast_b204da8f05.png)

Interests in Florida should closely monitor the forecast. Milton is the next name. Rain from this system is not forecast for Tennessee and North Carolina.

NHC forecast

A broad area of low pressure is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico. Additional, gradual development is possible over the next few days and a tropical or subtropical storm could form around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe of next week. Flooding likely in Florida next week.

New system developing in the Gulf, flooding likely in Florida 

All eyes are on the potential for a new developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this week and any potential impacts to the U.S.

Numerical guidance continues suggesting the potential of a tropical system developing in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico this week. While guidance is struggling with the exact setup, the National Hurricane Center has moderate confidence in a system developing, thus, there's a 50% chance for development in this region this week. 

**NHC tropical forecast**
![NHC Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Gulf_of_Mexico_and_Caribbean_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_0a104d0fdc.JPG)

While there's increasing confidence in development, there's a lack of confidence in where the system develops, where it moves and the intensity, and hence, any impacts—if any—to the U.S., especially for areas recovering from devastating rains from Helene.

Regardless of tropical development, it does appear tropical moisture could be funneled into parts of the Southeast late this week into the weekend, possibly sticking around into early next week. Guidance suggests a ridge will set up shop over southern Florida and the western Atlantic and the flow around the ridge could help direct moisture into this region. With that steering pattern around the ridge, eyes will be kept close on any tropical system that develops for a similar trajectory as the tropical moisture. Let's be clear, a tropical system impacting the Southeast is not currently in the forecast but keep checking back for updates over the coming days.

Because of this developing ridge placement and the pool of moisture that's building over the Gulf, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the Southeast in a flood risk hazard from western parts of the Florida Coast into the Southeast, including the Carolinas. The hazard outlook highlights where flooding is possible and likely.

**WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook**
![WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/WPC_3_7_day_hazard_outlook_dac0e9c9b8.png)

**WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook Southeast**
![WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook Southeast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/WPC_3_7_day_hazard_outlook_Southeast_2986f1a7c3.jpg)

With that said, there are some questions as to how much moisture resides over the region, any potential mechanisms to enhance precipitation and the northward extend of the moisture fetch. The latest 7-day precipitation forecast keeps the focal and heaviest of rain south of I-10 across the South and Southeast, which is great news for areas farther north into Georgia, the Carolinas and Tennessee that do not need any additional rain. With that said, this is fluid and subject to change, especially if a tropical system does develop.

**WPC 7-day precipitation forecast**
![WPC 7-day precipitation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/WPC_7_day_precipitation_forecast_f91c8daa31.png)

This is a waiting game, but it needs to at least be put "on the radar" that there's some concern for more moisture to move into parts of the Southeast late this week into the weekend and there's the potential for a tropical system. Keep checking back for updates.

WPC 3-7 day hazard outlook Southeast

All eyes are on the potential for a new developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico this week and any potential impacts to the U.S., if any.

More moisture, flood concerns for parts of the Southeast

There's growing confidence and concern in a tropical system developing in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico this week.

The National Hurricane Center has gradually increased the odds of development to 50%, or a medium chance, over the next 7-days. Numerical guidance is bullish on some type of development, suggesting probable development somewhere in the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico, possibly as early as midweek. It's likely that the odds from the NHC will continue to increase through the first half of this week as environmental conditions will favor gradual development.

**NHC Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean forecast over the next 7 days**
![NHC Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Gulf_of_Mexico_and_Caribbean_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_0a104d0fdc.JPG)

A low pressure is forecast to establish itself somewhere over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek and may continue to track into the Gulf from mid to late week, the Thursday-Friday timeframe. This low pressure could become a Tropical Depression by midweek, possibly gradually strengthening into a Tropical Storm by late week. The exact placement is uncertain and guidance, while bullish on some type of development, are struggling with where the main low develops and forms into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. Beyond the Thursday-Friday timeframe, things grow increasingly uncertain--as expected--without a developed system and being around a week out, on where the potential tropical cyclone moves, so there's high uncertainty with any potential intensity and track along with which areas could see impacts. 

While the steering currents are unknown, it does suggest the potential is at least there for some type of Gulf Coast impacts, such as increased moisture and rain, but this is subject to change. There has been a slight trend toward the north-central or northeastern Gulf Coast. It should be noted, that is not a forecast and impacts to this part of the Gulf Coast are not set in stone but it is a trend that should be monitored. Any impacts to the Gulf Coast would be this upcoming weekend and/or early that following week. It should be noted, however, direct impacts to the Gulf Coast are not a certainty but cannot be ruled out at this time. Keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days if you live along the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, or have travel plans to this region.

**GEFS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)**
![GEFS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/GEFS_forecast_bright_colors_orange_yellow_show_where_the_low_pressure_could_be_located_d6a269c167.png)

**GEPS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)
**
![GEPS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/GEPS_forecast_bright_colors_orange_yellow_show_where_the_low_pressure_could_be_located_f55216021d.png)

Not only is the Gulf of Mexico being monitored for activity, but the rest of the Atlantic Basin is also quite busy with Hurricane Isaac (several hundred miles northwest of the Azores) and Tropical Storm Joyce (located over the central Atlantic Ocean) along with two other locations being monitored for development.

**NHC Atlantic Basin forecast over the next 7 days**
![NHC Atlantic Basin forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_Atlantic_Basin_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_86bd7fdc75.jpg)

Isaac and Joyce are not expected to impact the U.S. The other two areas of potential development are not an immediate risk to the U.S. but need to be monitored over the next week to week and a half.

GEPS forecast (bright colors--orange, yellow--show where the low pressure could be located)

A new tropical system could emerge in the Gulf of Mexico this week. Impacts possible to Gulf Coast.

New tropical system could emerge in the Gulf this week

There's growing confidence in a tropical system developing in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next 7-days.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of development to 40%, or a medium chance, over the next 7-days. Numerical guidance is bullish on development, suggesting a high chance for development. It's likely that the odds from the NHC will continue to increase over the weekend into early next week.

**NHC forecast over the next 7 days**
![NHC forecast over the next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NHC_forecast_over_the_next_7_days_1f885e8e84.JPG)

The low pressure is forecast to establish itself over the western Caribbean early this upcoming week, moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico around midweek and continue churning over the Gulf from mid to late week, the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Beyond this timeframe, things grow increasingly questionable, as expected, without a developed system and being around a week out.

While there is here is high uncertainty with any potential intensity and track, it does appear environmental conditions will favor this system becoming a tropical cyclone.

An early look at steering currents does suggest the potential is at least there for Gulf Coast impacts, but again, this is subject to change as there is uncertainty. Any impacts to the Gulf Coast would be late this upcoming week or next weekend. It should be noted, direct impacts to the Gulf Coast are not a certainty but cannot be ruled out at this time.

Keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days. 

Click <u>[here](https://firsthandweather.substack.com/)</u> to join our Weather Highlights newsletter

NHC forecast over the next 7 days

Increasing odds of new tropical system in Gulf

Hurricane Helene continues to intensify and is forecast to become a Major Hurricane this afternoon afternoon, making landfall as a Major Hurricane tonight in Florida, bringing an unsurvivable storm surge to parts of Florida and catastrophic flooding from rain well inland into parts of Georgia, Tennessee and the Carolinas tonight, Friday and Saturday.

Helene is a Category 2 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph with higher gusts. The Hurricane is tracking north-northeast off the West Coast of Florida—movement is at 14 mph. Landfall is forecast tonight in the Big Bend region of Florida as a strong Category 3 or Category 4 Major Hurricane.

**Helene latest and forecast track**
![Helene latest and forecast track](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Helene_latest_and_forecast_track_729762ac46.jpg)

This is where the highest storm surge is forecast, up to 20 feet above dry ground. If you have family or friends along coastal Florida, near the Big Bend, or if you live there, listen to all local evacuation orders and take them seriously. The National Hurricane Center is calling this storm surge 'unsurvivable' for these areas.

**Storm surge forecast**
![Storm surge forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Storm_surge_forecast_05ee1511a6.jpg)

The Hurricane continues to expand in size, and due to the size, an intensity at landfall, hurricane and tropical storm-force conditions will be felt far inland across the Southeast where Hurricane Warnings and Tropical Storm Warnings extend across the entire state of Georgia into the Carolinas along with High Wind Warnings extending into Tennessee and Virginia. These winds will cause power outages especially due to the foliage on the trees and stressed trees due to the ongoing drought conditions. Be cautious if your house is surrounded by large trees and go ahead and prepare to lose power, possibly for weeks in some cases.

**Hurricane and tropical storm alerts**
![Hurricane and tropical storm alerts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Hurricane_and_tropical_storm_alerts_358d9e69ad.jpg)

Along with the wind spreading inland, the big concern will be the heavy rain across the Southeast into the Ohio Valley, measured in feet of rain in some cases across the southern Appalachians where terrain and a boundary nearby enhance the tropical rains from Helene. There's a very rare High Risk for flooding in this region, extending across Georgia into western parts of the Carolinas from tonight, Friday into Saturday. It's possible northeastern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina and western North Carolina see 18-24 inches of rain, with isolated higher amounts of rain. This will cause catastrophic, life-threatening impacts. If you live in the region, in a flood prone area, consider evacuating and keep a close eye on the forecast. Never cross a roadway covered by water.

**Helene rainfall forecast**
![Helene rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Helene_rainfall_forecast_d51ff2e50a.jpg)

**High flood risk in pink shaded area Thursday night through Saturday**
![High flood risk in pink shaded area Thursday night through Saturday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/High_flood_risk_in_pink_shaded_area_Thursday_night_through_Saturday_fdc3d167cc.JPG)

Please take Helene seriously. Have multiple, reliable sources to receive weather information from.

High flood risk in pink shaded area Thursday night through Saturday

Helene to bring unsurvivable storm surge and catastrophic inland flooding as it makes landfall Thursday night.

Helene to bring unsurvivable storm surge and catastrophic inland flooding

Tropical Storm Helene has formed in the northwestern Caribbean. Helene has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph as of Tuesday morning but intensification, potentially rapid, is forecast the remainder of Tuesday through Thursday before landfall.

**Helene forecast track**
![Helene forecast track](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Helene_forecast_track_c058d6d056.jpg)

Landfall is expected Thursday evening in Florida somewhere along the Florida Panhandle or Coastal Bend of Florida as a Major Category 3 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 115 mph. Not only are winds with Helene a concern but the storm surge is expected to be a significant factor with the hurricane along with isolated tornadoes and heavy rain that could lead to areas of flooding.

The heavy rain moves inland across the South, Southeast, into the Carolinas, Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, potentially spreading into Ozark region from late week through the weekend where a widespread 3 to 7 inches of rain will fall. Isolated higher amounts are possible especially from terrain enhancements across the region.

**7-day rainfall forecast**
![7-day rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_day_rainfall_forecast_3893b86303.png)
![7-day rainfall forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7_day_rainfall_forecast_026884b914.png)

Helene forecast track

Tropical Storm Helene forms in the Caribbean, expected to make landfall as a Major Hurricane on Thursday.

All blogs

New system developing in the Gulf, flooding likely in Florida

More moisture, flood concerns for parts of the Southeast

New tropical system could emerge in the Gulf this week

Increasing odds of new tropical system in Gulf

Helene to bring unsurvivable storm surge and catastrophic inland flooding

Helene develops, forecast to make landfall as major hurricane, flooding spreads inland