A potent winter storm will slam the Northeast beginning Monday with impacts continuing Tuesday and into Wednesday bringing heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding.

The nor'easter will have the biggest impacts late Monday and throughout the day Tuesday across the Northeast. While there are still some questions about the track of the system and the timing of the intensity, extreme impacts are forecast for parts of New England. The exact track will be crucial in just how big the impacts are for the I-95 corridor. The closer the storm track to the coast, the farther west away from I-95 the worst impacts will be; whereas, if the storm tracks a little farther away from the coast, it'll shift the bigger impacts east toward the I-95 corridor across the Northeast.

![Nor'easter timing and track forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Nor_easter_timing_and_track_forecast_c18ca874e2.png)

The current forecast calls for significant, widespread wet snow accumulations from New York into New England. This is where a widespread half a foot to a foot of snow is expected with some isolated areas receiving two feet or more of snow. The current forecast track would allow for New York City to get 1 to 3 inches of snow and Boston to see 4 to 8 inches of snow.

**Snowfall forecast through Wednesday morning**

![Snowfall forecast through Wednesday morning](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snowfall_forecast_through_Wednesday_morning_155542c31b.jpeg)

Strong wind gusts are also possible as the system intensifies off the coast of New England. Wind gusts could approach 40 mph in New York City and potentially 55 mph in Boston with coastal areas approaching 60 mph. Gusts this high will cause power outages and help contribute to coastal flooding due to the strong onshore winds and lower atmospheric pressure over the region. 

![Maximum wind gust forecast through Wednesday afternoon](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Maximum_wind_gust_forecast_through_Wednesday_afternoon_c9cd71a417.jpeg)

Numerous weather alerts are in effect for the region including Winter Storm Warnings, High Wind Watches, and Coastal Flood Advisories.

Snowfall forecast through Wednesday morning

A potent winter storm will slam the Northeast beginning Monday with impacts continuing Tuesday and into Wednesday bringing heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding.

A potent nor'easter will slam New England this week

The battle of the season continues with winter and spring dueling one another and this will bring high-impact weather to millions across the United States over the coming days.

**Another atmospheric river to slam California bringing more flooding**

California cannot catch a break. Another atmospheric river is set to bring heavy rain to the state early this upcoming week which will lead to additional flooding in areas that are already under a state of emergency.

Additional spotty precipitation is expected for the remainder of this weekend with the heaviest activity focused on central and northern parts of the state but the next atmospheric river is already setting up near Hawaii and will move toward California Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this upcoming week.

Despite a brief decrease in the intensity and coverage of the precipitation this weekend, flooding is still expected as runoff and snowmelt continue. Because of the risk, flood alerts continue for millions in California. Additional flood alerts are expected to be issued for most of California from late Monday through Wednesday.

**Early week atmospheric river key takeaways**

![Early week atmospheric river key takeaways ](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Early_week_atmospheric_river_key_takeaways_eed0fd8519.jpeg)

The biggest impacts from the developing atmospheric river will arrive Monday night continuing into early Wednesday, shifting from northern California to southern California during this timeframe. Heavy rain will be the biggest concern with a couple to several inches of rain falling from Los Angeles County north. The foothills communities will see 3-6 inches of rain with isolated higher amounts favoring the southwest-facing slopes of the foothills and mountains. Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Sacramento can expect 1-3 inches of rain with 1/2 - 1 inch for San Diego. The snow level will be above 7,000 feet in southern California and 5,000 feet in northern and central California where feet of snow are expected for the highest peaks.

**Precipitation (liquid) forecast next 7 days**

![Precipitation (liquid) forecast next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Precipitation_liquid_forecast_next_7_days_85bd2402e3.png)

With the additional heavy rain, there's an increased risk of flooding, landslides, and mudslides. Never cross a road covered by water.

**Say it ain't snow! Heavy snow is expected with a Nor'easter**

A potent storm system is expected to bring heavy precipitation and strong winds to the Northeast early this upcoming week a system in the Midwest races toward the East Coast spinning up a surface area of low pressure that'll intensify into a nor'easter late Monday and Tuesday. 

There are some questions regarding the exact track of the low pressure and just how strong this system gets, which will impact the precipitation and wind forecast but confidence is growing in a significant winter storm for parts of the Northeast Monday and Tuesday.

The current track suggests the heaviest snow is expected to fall just west of the I-95 corridor as the cold airmass is marginal for wintry precipitation with this system, which means D.C. and Philadelphia will mainly see a cold, wind-blown rain but the rain will change to snow in Philadelphia. New York City will also see rain as will Boston initially on Monday but the rain will change to snow as the system pulls in colder air. 

New York City is expected to see a slushy inch of snow with a couple inches for Boston. Farther inland, a foot or more is possible for the higher terrain of New England and upstate New York. Keep in mind, a slightly different track could significantly impact the accumulation forecast, especially for the major cities along I-95 for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  

**Modeled snow accumulation forecast**

![Modeled snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_snow_accumulation_forecast_0a1e92169a.png)

The system will also bring strong winds that could disrupt travel, reduce visibility, cause power outages, and lead to areas of coastal flooding.

It should also be noted that the higher terrain of western Virginia and northwestern North Carolina will also see wintry precipitation a little earlier beginning early Sunday for the possibility of light icing.

**
Severe storms and isolated tornadoes for the South
**

On the warm side of the winter storm, severe weather will erupt this afternoon and evening and again on Sunday from Arkansas to South Carolina.

The severe threat begins Saturday afternoon and evening across eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, northern Texas, western Tennesee, and northern Mississippi where damaging winds and large hail are possible. Very large hail cannot be ruled out for parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. There is also a low-end tornado risk Saturday afternoon.

Because of the severe risk, there's a Level 1 and Level 2 severe risk for these areas (the risk is out of a Level 5).

**Saturday afternoon/evening severe risk**

![Saturday afternoon/evening severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/evening_severe_risk_57da948014.jpeg)

The severe risk shifts east overnight into Sunday with a higher severe risk Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Deep South and Southeast from Mississippi to Georgia with the severe risk also extending into southern Louisiana and southern South Carolina.

Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible within this region. The highest severe risk is along the I-10 corridor where there is the highest chance for very large hail and tornadoes. Because of the severe risk, there's a Level 1 and Level 2 severe risk for these areas (the risk is out of a Level 5).

**Sunday afternoon/evening severe risk**

![Sunday afternoon/evening severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/evening_severe_risk_778150bfb1.jpeg)

If you live in the severe risk area, make sure you have reliable sources for weather warnings and have a shelter plan in place.

Lower-48 precip forecast

The battle of the season continues with winter and spring dueling one another and this will bring high-impact weather to millions across the United States over the coming days including flooding to California, a major winter storm to the Northeast, and severe weather to the South.

Weather headlines: Another California atmospheric river, a winter Noreaster, and severe storms for the South

California cannot catch a break as another potent storm system arrives later today with impacts continuing into the weekend for parts of the state.

After the state received feet of mountain snow, with a rare Blizzard Warning for the mountains in Los Angeles County, and inches of rain closer to sea level, another threat emerges today as an atmospheric river brings buckets of moisture and rain to the state to end the week.

The impacts begin today across NorCal, gradually shifting south through central parts of the state and into SoCal overnight into Friday with additional impacts staying around on Saturday. While snow is possible, the big concern is the heavy rain as this storm system is different than the cold storm system that dropped snow levels down below 1,000 feet a couple of weeks ago and even produced icy precipitation in Los Angeles and Long Beach.

This system is warmer as it taps into a big feed of atmospheric moisture coming off the Pacific Ocean. Big feeds of moisture off the ocean typically bring milder temperatures and that is the case with this feed of moisture, which is known as an atmospheric river. This atmospheric moisture has origins near Hawaii so it's the warmer "Pineapple Express" that you've probably heard about.

The Pineapple Express event is expected to send snow levels upwards of 8,000 to 9,000 feet in the SoCal mountains with snow levels soaring to over 5,000 feet farther north in the state. Snow levels this high paired with the heavy rain and recent feet of snow brings numerous hazards to the mountains in California. One big hazard is flooding as heavy rain falls on top of the snow. This creates a more rapid runoff into area creeks and rivers, increasing the flood risk, and also melting some of the snow creating more flooding concerns. An additional hazard is the weight of the feet of snow on structures in the mountains getting heavier with falling rain on the snow. This drastically increases the weight of the snow, which could collapse the roofs of structures that still have snow on the roofs.

**Precipitation (liquid) forecast**

![Precipitation (liquid) forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Precipitation_liquid_forecast_47014bbfe7.png)

There's also the concern of increased avalanche danger as the snow becomes unstable. Above 8,000 feet, heavy snow is likely with feet of snow expected to fall by the weekend. 

**Winter storm impacts today (Thursday) through Saturday**

![Winter storm impacts today (Thursday) through Saturday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Winter_storm_impacts_today_Thursday_through_Saturday_e864e55894.png)

For the valleys, foothills, and lowlands, heavy rain will lead to areas of flooding with inches of rain possible at times. This will increase the flood risk and create an increased risk of land and mudslides.

**Today's (Thursday) excessive rainfall outlook WPC**

![Today's (Thursday) excessive rainfall outlook WPC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_Thursday_excessive_rainfall_outlook_WPC_f721b82549.png)

Friday's excessive rainfall outlook WPC

![Friday's excessive rainfall outlook WPC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Friday_s_excessive_rainfall_outlook_WPC_db8051d138.png)

Because of the flood hazards associated with this strong atmospheric river, local National Weather Service offices in California have issued numerous flood alerts across the state along with winter weather alerts for the highest elevations from today into this upcoming weekend. 

**Current flood and winter weather alerts from the NWS**

![Current weather alerts from the NWS](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Current_weather_alerts_from_the_NWS_9504fecb86.png)



Precipitation (liquid) forecast

A strong atmospheric river will bring inches of rain to parts of California creating flooding, landslides, and potentially collapsing structures.

Pineapple express to slam California bringing severe impacts

It's been an unusually warm start to the year for the South and the East, really, for most areas east of the Mississippi River. This is where average temperatures have been around 5-10 degrees warmer than normal. Some areas have seen the average temperature exceed 10 degrees warmer than normal with many new daily high temperatures being set in January in February. This has left many people wondering where in the heck winter is.

**January temperature departure from average**

![January temperature departure from average](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/January_temperature_departure_from_average_a932a6127c.png)

**February temperature departure from average**

![February temperature departure from average](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/February_temperature_departure_from_average_fd3092e96d.png)

If you're not a fan of unusually warm temperatures, you'll like the forecast outlook. Temperatures will take a tumble across the South and the East later this week, just after midweek, with a larger drop by this upcoming weekend. While temperatures won't necessarily be cold, temperatures will take a big fall back to where they should be this time of the year if not a few degrees colder. Guidance is in strong agreeance with this pattern change.

**Forecast temperature departure from average this weekend into mid-next week**

![Forecast temperature departure from average this weekend into mid-next week](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Forecast_temperature_departure_from_average_this_weekend_into_mid_next_week_53a1c3b6e4.png)

The Climate Prediction Center is on board with this cooler pattern favoring increased odds for temperatures to run below average. The CPC's 6-10 day temperature outlook shows the favored colder temperatures for much of the eastern United States.

**CPC's 6-10 day temperature outlook**

![ CPC's 6-10 day temperature outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/CPC_s_6_10_day_temperature_outlook_26b0b4710a.png)

It appears this cooler weather pattern for this region could stick around beyond the upcoming weekend and next week, with the weather pattern favoring cooler temperatures into the mid-range. 

**CPC's 8-14 day temperature outlook**

![ CPC's 8-14 day temperature outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/CPC_s_8_14_day_temperature_outlook_128a67e9d7.png)

This colder weather pattern will increase the odds of wintry precipitation and snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast that are currently in a large snow drought for the season.

**Modeled snow forecast over the coming days**

![Modeled snow forecast over the coming days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Modeled_snow_forecast_over_the_coming_days_972ea1ce81.png)

At this time, there does not appear to be a substantial wintry precipitation threat for the South. This can change so keep checking back for updates.

Temperature outlook

It's been an unusually warm start to the year for areas east of the Mississippi River but changes are on the horizon.

Winter to make a comeback for the South and East

The tornado risk is increasing for north Georgia this afternoon and evening. Because of the increased tornado risk, and overall increased severe risk, there's now an enhanced severe risk (or a level 3 of 5) for all of north Georgia.
**
Today's (Friday) severe risk**

![Today's (Friday) severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_Friday_severe_risk_f50d801f2c.jpeg)

The severe and tornado risk also extends into upstate South Carolina, western North Carolina, northern Alabama, and much of Tennessee and Kentucky. There's also an enhanced severe risk for these areas. The favored areas to see tornadoes, some of which could be strong and long-track, exists from far northern Alabama into central Tennessee and central Kentucky.

**Today's (Friday) tornado risk**

![Today's (Friday) tornado risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_Friday_tornado_risk_b647842b27.jpeg)

There are currently a few tornado watches in effect for this region, including in northwestern Georgia (just north of the Atlanta Metro area). Additional tornado watches are possible throughout the day today.

**Active tornado watches**

![Active tornado watches](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Active_tornado_watches_182484c820.jpeg)

![Active tornado watches](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Active_tornado_watches_570f2b7137.jpeg)

![Active tornado watches](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Active_tornado_watches_d2a0238e0a.jpeg)

Please be weather-aware today! Have a plan in place in case a warning is issued for your area, and have a couple of reliable sources to receive accurate, timely weather warnings from. 

Today's (Friday) severe risk

The tornado risk is increasing for north Georgia this afternoon and evening. Because of the increased tornado risk, and overall increased severe risk, there's now an enhanced severe risk (or a level 3 of 5) for all of north Georgia.

Increasing tornado risk for north Georgia, Tennessee, and upstate South Carolina

Dangerous severe thunderstorms and strong tornadoes are possible for parts of the South this afternoon, evening, and overnight from Texas and Oklahoma to Alabama and Tennessee.
**
Severe thunderstorm risk area today**

![Today's severe risk area](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_severe_risk_area_b564666ebf.jpeg)

Thunderstorms are expected to become widespread and intense this afternoon continuing into the overnight hours. The strongest storms will have the capability to produce damaging winds, large hail, and possibly strong long-lived tornadoes.

**Today's tornado outlook**

![Today's tornado outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_tornado_outlook_d6eb74a6e6.jpeg)

**Today's wind outlook**

![Today's wind outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_wind_outlook_3555cd782c.jpeg)

**Today's hail outlook**

![Today's hail outlook](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_hail_outlook_507fe49df5.jpeg)

Because of the high severe potential, there's a large severe thunderstorm risk spanning across much of Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. Damaging thunderstorms are possible in all of these areas. The highest severe risk exists for the Ark-La-Tex region and surrounding areas including, northern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. 

Thunderstorms are expected to begin in Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon and gradually shift east into the Deep South this evening and overnight. The severe risk will continue on Friday for parts of the Southeast.

Severe risk area today

Dangerous severe thunderstorms and strong tornadoes are possible for parts of the South this afternoon, evening, and overnight from Texas and Oklahoma to Alabama and Tennessee.

All blogs

A potent nor'easter will slam New England this week

Weather headlines: Another California atmospheric river, a winter Noreaster, and severe storms for the South

Pineapple express to slam California bringing severe impacts

Winter to make a comeback for the South and East

Increasing tornado risk for north Georgia, Tennessee, and upstate South Carolina

Severe storm and tornado outbreak expected for the South today