A setup that will favor heavy rain and flooding is expected for the holiday weekend across parts of the Northwestern and Northcentral Gulf Coast. A weak cold front will sneak into the area, stalling, allowing for the development and training of slow-moving rain and storms. These storms will have adequate moisture pooling near the cold front allowing the showers and storms to be prolific rain producers.

This will lead to high rain totals from southern Texas to southern Mississippi over the holiday weekend. Eventually, by the late weekend into the early parts of the upcoming work week, the wet weather pattern will shift into parts of the Southeast, including Alabama, Georgia, eastern Tennessee, Upstate South Carolina, and western North Carolina. A widespread 1-3 inches of rain is possible for the region with a bullseye of some amounts nearing 4-8 inches from the Texas coast to the Mississippi coast, and a secondary maximum over north Georgia, eastern Tennesee, and the mountains of the Carolinas of 3-6 inches.

![Gulf Coast rain forecast next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/wpc_qpf_168h_p_us_sc_1f71f834c0.png)

![Southeast rain forecast next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/wpc_qpf_168h_p_us_se_6ad0dc3a44.png)

![Carolinas rain forecast next 7-days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/wpc_qpf_168h_p_us_ma_4ecb3aed05.png)

Where the heaviest rain falls, isolated areas of flooding are possible over the holiday weekend near the Gulf and into the early parts of the upcoming workweek in the Southeast. If you live in a flood-prone area or in an area that is forecast to receive heavy rain, keep a close eye on the forecast over the coming days, and never attempt to cross a road covered by water. 

If you have Labor Day Weekend plans, you want to plan accordingly for wet weather at times in the Gulf States. 

Screen Shot 2022-09-01 at 3.02.04 PM.png

A weather setup favoring areas of heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns for parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast over the holiday weekend.

Heavy rain for parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast could cause flooding concerns

A late-season heatwave is expected beginning this week, continuing into the holiday weekend for parts of the western United States. This heatwave will be unusually strong given the time. of year, and is expected to bring extreme heat for a prolonged period of time, potentially breaking daily high-temperature records as a strong upper area of high pressure builds over the region.

The area of high pressure will continue to build and intensify through the week into the upcoming week over the West. This will skyrocket temperatures to well above average for the region. Because of the high temperatures, local National Weather Service offices have issued numerous heat alerts (Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories) across California, Arizona, and Nevada, and even extending into Oregon and Washington, where tens of millions will experience the dangerous heat through at least the holiday weekend.

![Current heat alerts for the West](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_08_31_at_9_57_09_AM_b0ccf3b8fc.png)

![Heat products for West](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_08_31_at_9_57_26_AM_366478ffd2.png)

The hottest most extreme temperatures will be felt over the holiday weekend across the Desert Southwest where temperatures will be in the 100s (100-110). A few areas in inland southern California could see temperatures approach 120-125 degrees. Farther north into the Pacific & Inland Northwest, temperatures won't be as extreme and the heat wave won't be as prolonged, but temperatures will still climb into the 90s and some 100s.

**Excessive Heat Warning, Excessive Heat Watch, Heat Advisory**

The local NWS offices issue heat alerts to help alert and protect the public. This is what each heat product means.

- **Excessive Heat Warning**—Take Action! An Excessive Heat Warning is issued within 12 hours of the onset of extremely dangerous heat conditions. The general rule of thumb for this Warning is when the maximum heat index temperature is expected to be 105° or higher for at least 2 days and night time air temperatures will not drop below 75°; however, these criteria vary across the country, especially for areas not used to extreme heat conditions. If you don't take precautions immediately when conditions are extreme, you may become seriously ill or even die.

- **Excessive Heat Watches**—Be Prepared! Heat watches are issued when conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event in the next 24 to 72 hours. A Watch is used when the risk of a heat wave has increased but its occurrence and timing is still uncertain.

- **Heat Advisory**—Take Action! A Heat Advisory is issued within 12 hours of the onset of extremely dangerous heat conditions. The general rule of thumb for this Advisory is when the maximum heat index temperature is expected to be 100° or higher for at least 2 days, and night time air temperatures will not drop below 75°; however, these criteria vary across the country, especially for areas that are not used to dangerous heat conditions. Take precautions to avoid heat illness. If you don't take precautions, you may become seriously ill or even die.

- **Excessive Heat Outlooks**—Be Aware! The outlooks are issued when the potential exists for an excessive heat event in the next 3-7 days. An Outlook provides information to those who need considerable lead-time to prepare for the event.

**Heat Safety Tips**

Heat is one of the leading weather-related killers in the United States, resulting in hundreds of fatalities each year. Heat can be very taxing on the body; check out the heat related illnesses that can occur with even a short period of exposure. Everyone can be vulnerable to heat, but some more so than others. According to The Impacts Of Climate Change On Human Health In The United States: A Scientific Assessment the following groups are particularly vulnerable to heat; check in with friends and relatives who fall in one of these populations, especially if they don’t have air conditioning.

1. Young children and infants are particularly vulnerable to heat-related illness and death, as their bodies are less able to adapt to heat than are adults. 
2. Older adults, particularly those with pre existing diseases, take certain medications, are living alone or with limited mobility who are exposed to extreme heat can experience multiple adverse effects.
3. People with chronic medical conditions are more likely to have a serious health problem during a heat wave than healthy people.
4. Pregnant women are also at higher risk. Extreme heat events have been associated with adverse birth outcomes such as low birth weight, preterm birth, and infant mortality, as well as congenital cataracts.

It is NEVER safe to leave a child, disabled person or pet locked in a car, even in the winter. If you have a toddler in your household, lock your cars, even in your own driveway.  Kids play in cars or wander outside and get into a car and can die in 10 minutes! A reported 25 children died in hot cars in 2020. To see the latest information for 2021, go to this link. Deaths routinely are reported as early as April and tragedies continue into December in southern states.

Screen Shot 2022-08-31 at 9.57.09 AM.png

Excessive Heat Warnings go up for parts of the West ahead of an extreme, prolonged heat event this week.

Dangerous heatwave to bring extreme heat to parts of the West this week into the holiday weeken

The Atlantic Hurricane Season has been off to a sleepy start (luckily) but it appears things could be changing with an 'awakening' Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has identified four areas that have a chance to develop into tropical cyclones over the coming days.

First area: Central Tropical Atlantic (high chance for development)

![Areas in the Atlantic being monitored for development by the NHC](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_08_28_at_3_11_34_PM_aaa47dc8fa.png)

An unorganized area of showers and storms associated with a broad area of low pressure is expected to slowly start to organize and strengthen this week, potentially developing into a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. The NHC gives this system a 40% chance to develop over the next 48 hours and a 70% chance to develop over the next five days. This system will move WNW toward the NE Leeward Islands by the end of the week. There's a lot of uncertainty with the eventual track of this system beyond the work week, but the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and the Southeast U.S. should keep an eye on the forecast for this system for the weekend and following week as it encounters an environment that could support continued gradual sustainability of intensity. 

Second area: Northwestern Caribbean Sea (low chance for development)

A tropical wave/trough of low pressure could start to see an uptick in thunderstorm activity as it moves into a semi-favorable area for development. While the organization process looks to be slow, the NHC gives this system a 20% chance to develop over the next five days as it moves WNW toward the Yucatan Peninsula by the middle of the work week. This system could move toward Central America/southern Mexico or the southern Bay of Campeche by late week so all interests in the Gulf should keep an eye on this system despite the current low chances for development. 

Third area: Central Atlantic (low chance for development)

Another system that's several hundred miles east of Bermuda has a low chance of about 10% developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours to five days per the NHC. This area of low pressure is in an environment that's not conducive for development as strong wind shear continues to chip away at firing thunderstorms. The system will slowly meander toward the south this work week and should gradually dissipate by the end of the week.

Fourth area: Eastern Atlantic (low chance for development)

A tropical wave expected to move into a favorable area for development this time of the year will move off the West Coast of Africa into the Eastern Atlantic. This wave has a chance to develop and should be monitored closely as it moves WNW over the days/week to come. The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop over the next five days. This will likely gradually increase, all interests in the Caribbean and despite the uncertainty in the forecast and potential eventual track, the Southeast U.S. should keep a close eye on the forecast of this system over the days to come. 

It's been several weeks since the last Atlantic Tropical Storm, and while it's been a quiet start to the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we're entering the historically most active time of the year for Atlantic activity (despite the current dry air and shear over typically favored areas for development), and while nothing is imminent or immediate, keep closely checking the forecast over the coming days/weeks if you live along the coast.

Areas in the Atlantic being monitored for development by the NHC

Screen Shot 2022-08-28 at 3.11.34 PM.png

The Atlantic Hurricane Season has been off to a sleepy start but it appears things could be changing with an awakening Atlantic. The NHC has identified four areas that have a chance to develop over the coming days.

Awakening Atlantic?

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) issued an earthquake advisory for the Midlands of South Carolina after the recent swarm of earthquakes in the area. 

![USGS Earthquake Hazard Map](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/2018nshm_longterm_efc0479ed2.jpeg)

The swarm started in late 2021 (December 27 with a magnitude 3.3 earthquake), continuing into 2022 with several magnitudes of 2.0+ earthquakes with a few exceeding 3.0. The largest earthquake so far was a magnitude 3.6 on June 29, 2022. A swarm of earthquakes is known as a prolonged sequence of earthquakes that lacks any clear primary event or mainshock according to the USGS. Earthquake swarm longevity is hard to predict but can last for months. As equally hard to predict is the size of the earthquakes. 

During earthquake swarms, the probability of larger magnitude earthquakes can increase along with the frequency of earthquakes. Because of this recent swarm, the USGS suggests there's a 95% chance the swarm continues with small earthquakes (generally less than magnitude 4.0). There's also a 5% chance of a magnitude 4.0-5.0 earthquake and just under a 1% chance for an earthquake larger than 5.0.

Earthquakes aren't new to this area. Occasional small, scattered earthquakes, can and have occurred. The largest earthquake within 50 miles was a magnitude 5.5 back in 1913 in Union County. In 1886, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake (the Charleston earthquake) rocked and damaged the state. This earthquake was just under 90 miles away from the ongoing swarm.

Screen Shot 2022-08-22 at 3.34.49 PM.png

The United States Geological Survey issued an earthquake advisory for the Midlands of South Carolina.

USGS issues an earthquake advisory for parts of South Carolina

A system tracking through the western Gulf of Mexico has a high likelihood of developing into a Tropical Storm, impacting South Texas over the weekend. The disturbance is currently in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and has officially been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Four by the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center gives this system a high likelihood of developing into a Tropical Storm, thus, Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the lower Texas coast where a minor storm surge, gusty winds, and heavy rain are possible this weekend.

![PTC4 forecast track](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/213902_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_01cba940f1.png)

The expected Tropical Storm is forecast to make landfall overnight Saturday possibly just south of Brownsville, Texas as a weak Tropical Storm. Brownsville and the southern tip of Texas is included in the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical moisture from this system is expected to spread farther north into the state of Texas over later parts of the weekend into next week combined with other moisture and a pattern favorable for rain that could provide areas of beneficial rainfall to drought-stricken areas. 

![7-day WPC rain forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/p168i_1_f329c6a92e.gif)

Some of the rainfall in Texas could cause isolated areas of flooding so if you live in a flood-prone area, please be aware of the latest forecast.

If Potential Tropical Cyclone Four does become a Tropical Storm, it would be named Danielle. 

213902_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Tropical Storm Danielle is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend impacting parts of Texas.

Tropical Storm Warnings go up for South Texas

It's been a brutally hot and dry summer for Texas. And while above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation are expected during La Nina years, this summer has been particularly bad.

Most of the state is within a drought with a good portion of the state experiencing Level 4 drought conditions, the worst on the drought monitor.

![Current drought monitor](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_08_18_at_2_13_15_PM_52b26e5e38.png)

Luckily, a change in the weather pattern will lead to more rain chances and cooler temperatures over the coming days. The current forecast suggests a multi-inch rain event for a good chunk of the state over the next seven days.

The heaviest rain is expected to fall from the Texas Hill Country and northern Texas where a widespread 4 to 6 inches is possible. Isolated higher amounts could fall.

![7-day WPC rain forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/p168i_4c70541e4a.gif)

Due to the ongoing drought conditions and the expected rainfall over the coming days, isolated flooding will become a concern. Isolated flooding is possible across any part of the state over any given day with a higher concern across west, north, and central Texas.

If you live in a flood-prone area in Texas, just be aware of the forecast and your surroundings. If you come across a roadway covered by water, just turn around.

p168i.gif

A weather pattern change will bring areas of heavy rain to Texas that could lead to some areas of flooding. 

All blogs

Heavy rain for parts of the Gulf Coast and Southeast could cause flooding concerns

Dangerous heatwave to bring extreme heat to parts of the West this week into the holiday weeken

Awakening Atlantic?

USGS issues an earthquake advisory for parts of South Carolina

Tropical Storm Warnings go up for South Texas

Texas: from drought to flooding