We're still in the process of pinning down exactly where Ian will make landfall in the U.S. this upcoming week. Let me preface this article with a couple of important facts. As of September 25, 11 am ET, Ian remains a sloppy and unorganized tropical storm with 50 mph maximum sustained winds. Ian's low-level circulation is partially exposed, due to a lack of thunderstorm activity over its entire core. It's even possible that its low-level center re-locates under any region of deeper thunderstorm activity in the short term, which would affect Ian's eventual track this week. Thus, I would caution against becoming too fixated on any individual model run, especially over the next 24-36 hours until Ian becomes better organized. 

Ian will soon move into an environment favorable for rapid intensification, and we'll probably be looking at a major hurricane in about 2 days. The system currently resides and will remain over sea surface temperatures around 86+°F, plenty warm for rapid strengthening. Also, light wind shear and favorable upper-level outflow will allow Ian to get its act together. I will note that some mid-level dry air exists to Ian's northwest over and near the Yucatan channel, which might delay rapid intensification onset but won't prevent it.

![09L_intensity_latest.png](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/09_L_intensity_latest_7c69e00174.png)

Figure 1: Latest Ian intensity forecast from various models

Will Ian hit the Florida Panhandle or Peninsula?

At the moment, I lean toward a Florida peninsula landfall, and we should eventually begin to see a shift eastward in the GFS guidance to align closer with what the European currently shows. We saw a noteworthy westward trend in the guidance earlier in the weekend, raising concerns that we should focus more on a Florida panhandle impact. However, we're already seeing a trend back eastward. The figure below shows the western trend we observed in yesterday's guidance, but we're seeing a shift back to the east today (the darkest blue line). The Florida peninsula certainly remains a high-risk area.

![Ian forecast trends](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/f192_trend_20cdd0a58b.png)

Figure 2: Model superblend forecast over the last four model runs

If we break this down between the GFS and European ensembles, notice the difference we currently see in the guidance. The GFS still favors a panhandle hit, while the European has remained persistent with a peninsula impact. 

![GFS model forecast for Ian](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/AL_09_2022092506_GEFS_0_120h_large_42b379f98b.png)

Figure 3: Latest GFS ensemble forecast for Ian with black line depicting ensemble mean

![European model forecast for Ian](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/AL_09_2022092506_ECENS_0_120h_large_a328f48d9b.png)

Figure 4: Latest European ensemble forecast for Ian with black line depicting ensemble mean

We're seeing these discrepancies in the guidance due to disagreements on the strength, timing, and exact placement of an eastern U.S. trough. The GFS has trended toward a weaker trough and depicts a quicker departure of an embedded shortwave feature mid-week. As a result, Ian would feel the effects of the trough less, allowing it to move farther northward and hit the panhandle late-week. On the other hand, the European has a more amplified and slower trough, so mid and upper-level southwesterly flow will tug more on Ian causing it to steer toward the Florida peninsula around mid-week. Again, I favor the latter scenario and believe most forecasts will follow suit. 

A cold front, associated with the eastern U.S. shortwave, will reach the Gulf coast early in the week and afterward pass through the Florida peninsula. After Ian undergoes rapid intensification, dry air behind the front and heightened wind shear may weaken Ian before landfall but probably less so if Ian impacts the peninsula instead. 

![99fndfd_init_2022092500.png](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/99fndfd_init_2022092500_9c83f4d3b0.png)

Figure 5: Forecast for Tuesday, September 27, depicting cold front placement

![European model showing dry air wrapping around Ian Wednesday afternoon](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/dry_air_euro_a99542f551.png)

Figure 6: Latest operational European model forecast depicting a Florida peninsula impact with dry air wrapping around the system

We'll keep you updated on Firsthand Weather this upcoming week. Please keep in mind that meteorology is an inexact science, and we may conclude that we need to make significant modifications to our forecast and analysis. Regardless, please continue to prepare for an impactful event to Florida this upcoming week. 

European model showing dry air wrapping around Ian Wednesday afternoon

dry air euro.png

Ian Likely To Hit Florida Panhandle Or Peninsula

Tropical Storm Ian developed in the Caribbean late Friday and is expected to intensify over the weekend becoming a hurricane, potentially impacting Florida this upcoming workweek as a major hurricane.

Ian is the 9th named system of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The storm is expected to intensify as it moves into an environment with less wind shear and warm ocean waters. The uptick in intensity and organization has already been realized from Friday morning to Friday night. Wind shear has lessened over the region, which bumped the depression up to a storm.

The National Hurricane Center is calling for strengthening to continue over the coming days becoming a hurricane by the late weekend (Sunday night). Intensification is expected to continue once Ian crosses over western Cuba late Monday, and it's quite possible Ian could undergo rapid intensification (increased maximum sustained winds of 35 mph within a 24-hour window) once the system enters the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. At that point, the hurricane could reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher—winds at or greater than 111 mph) off the southwestern Florida coast on Tuesday or early Wednesday. 

While there are questions on the intensity and track, Ian does pose a significant threat to the U.S. The National Hurricane Center and forecast models strongly suggest the hurricane will bring impacts to South Florida and the Florida Peninsula, potentially making landfall as a major Category 3 hurricane in Florida either overnight Tuesday or Wednesday somehwere between Tampa and Cape Coral.  

![Ian forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/024746_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_2227a86cba.png)

With this current forecast, parts of Florida can expect storm surge, freshwater flooding from heavy rain, hurricane-force winds, and isolated tornadoes. Because of the significant threat and likelihood of impacts, a State of Emergency has been issued for parts of Florida. Florida residents should begin preparing to evacuate if local officials and authorities give the order. Keep in mind, there are questions on the track and intensity so Floridians need to keep a close eye on the National Hurricane Center's forecast and forecasts from their local media outlets to help protect property and lives. 

Ian could bring impacts to the Southeastern U.S. and East Coast from the late week into next weekend but there is too much uncertainty in the forecast evolution of this system to make a definitive call. All residents in the Southeast and East Coast should keep a close eye on future forecasts. 

Screen Shot 2022-09-23 at 8.19.00 PM.png

Tropical Storm Ian forms in the Caribbean and is expected to intensify into a major hurricane, potentially impacting Florida this upcoming workweek. 

Ian forms, expected to become major hurricane

Though we can never say anything is for certain in the world of weather, Fiona's projected track has become a bit more certain. Let's first discuss what Fiona is currently doing, and then we'll get into the actual forecast.

Fionia continues on a west-northwestward track toward Puerto Rico and will bring very heavy rain to the U.S. Territory over the remainder of the weekend. Most of Fiona's heavy thunderstorm activity has remained to the east of its low-level circulation, but currently there are signs Fiona could be strengthening. Microwave satellite imagery indicates that an eyewall may be trying to form, a sign of intensification. Regardless though, it's not unrealistic that rainfall totals could get uncomfortably close to 2 feet over parts of the island.

Many of our readers probably just want (or need) to know if Fiona will impact mainland U.S., and the short answer is not likely. We had some concern a few days ago that a heat ridge building over the central U.S. next week would extend far enough east that FIona would get trapped and steered into the Gulf of Mexico or southeastern U.S. coast. Luckily, a shortwave will pass across the Great Lakes region and New England early in the week. This wave will reinforce a trough that'll keep a pathway open for Fiona to escape between the U.S. heat ridge and a ridge to the storm's east. 

![Hurricane Fiona Projected Path](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/AL_072022_forecast_1e2b375176.png)

If Fiona were to remain weaker into early next week, the system may stay on a northwesterly track for longer, but even still, a eventual turn northward should occur long before any threat to the U.S. occurs. Fiona will really begin to feel the effects of southwesterly or even westerly flow in the mid and upper-levels of the atmosphere early-to-mid week. 

We also have strong agreement in the model guidance at this point that Fiona will be a miss for the U.S. In fact, today's guidance has even trended farther to the east. Bermuda should keep an eye on Fiona as a precautionary measure and watch for eastward trends in the forecast guidance. 

![Fiona Forecast Trends](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/f192_trend_c3e9110537.png)

![Hurricane Fiona Spaghetti Models](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/f156_eps_5d0d6e981f.png)

Also, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland should watch Fiona closely. A longwave trough will pass into the Midwest and Great Lakes region mid-week and then potentially dig into the eastern U.S. by late week/early next weekend. Fiona could interact with this trough in such a way that the storm may actually steer back toward eastern Canada. The timing and trough orientation would need to be just right, but model guidance has definitely jumped on this possibility. We'll certainly keep a watch as we approach next weekend.


AL072022_forecast.png

Fiona Forecast Becoming More Clear

An early-season storm system will bring areas of heavy rain and high-mountain snow to parts of Central and Northern California from Sunday through this upcoming Tuesday.

A developing upper area of low pressure is dropping south across the northeastern Pacific. This system will continue to intensify and position itself just off the coast of Northern California late this weekend before gradually meandering off the California coast early this upcoming week.

This system will tap into an area of subtropical moisture helping create a weak atmospheric river aimed at Northern California extending into Central California. This moisture will bring heavy rain to these areas in California where a widespread 0.50-1.00" can be expected. Isolated higher amounts are possible especially on the western and southern facing foothills and mountains. There will be an increased risk of debris and mud flows where the heaviest rain falls and especially near recent burn scars.

While the greatest concentration of rain and moisture will be focused in Northern and Central California, some rain will also extend into coastal parts of Southern California and farther north into Oregon and south-central Washington. 

![Precipitation forecast next 7 days](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/wpc_acc_precip_california_168_ca08f6c5ec.png)

![Precipitation forecast next 7 days Northern California](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/wpc_acc_precip_northerncalifornia_168_ddb9b49dad.png)

This system originates over cold regions so it'll have quite a bit of cold air in the upper-levels, especially as it intensifies. This will allow for some mountain snow in California. The highest peaks of the Cascades and Sierras are the favored areas to see wet snow from late Sunday through Tuesday where a few inches are possible.

![Snow forecast for California](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_15_8a70fcb1b8.png)

The lowland rain and high-mountain snow is much needed for California which has been plagued by historic heat and wildfires recently. Beneficial rainfall will help firefighters currently fighting fires and help initially mitigate fire danger going into the fall season.

This storm system will move inland by midweek and begin weakening, shutting down rain chances for California. A system of this magnitude this early in the season is rare so let's hope this is a sign of things to come during the fall and winter as much of the West needs moisture to help alleviate the ongoing drought conditions.

Screen Shot 2022-09-17 at 1.31.19 PM.png

An early-season storm system will bring areas of heavy rain and high-mountain snow to parts of Central and Northern California late this weekend into early this upcoming week.

Potent early-season storm to bring heavy rain and snow to parts of California

I think most of us are ready for fall to come and stay for a little while. But if you're in the central and eastern U.S. and thought the summer was behind us, I have some unfortunate news. 

The remnants of Typhoon Merbok, a tropical cyclone that developed in the western North Pacific, have already been interacting with the Pacific jet stream. Believe it or not, recurving typhoons can have a profound effect on the downstream weather for a week or more after the event occurs. In this particular case, Merbok entered a region of the jet favorable for its intensification and is currently producing over 50-foot waves in the Bering Sea. 

This interaction will cause the jet stream to do what you'd expect a hose to do if you were to grab the end of it and start quickly moving your arm up and down. Notice how much wavier the jet stream will be this upcoming Tuesday compared to this past Tuesday. A wavier jet stream can equate to more extreme weather, on the cold and hot end of the spectrum.

![Jet stream analysis for this past Tuesday, Sept., 13, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/gfs_uv250_npac_1_79ecbc5151.png)

Figure 1: Jet stream analysis for this past Tuesday, Sept., 13, 2022

![Projected upper-level wind speed and direction for this upcoming Tuesday, Sept., 20, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/gfs_uv250_npac_18_4e03f94dc2.png)

Figure 2: Projected upper-level wind speed and direction for this upcoming Tuesday, Sept., 20, 2022

A trough will dig into the southwestern U.S., bringing below average temperatures there, while a heat ridge will become well-established across the central U.S. by early next week. The good news is that drought-stricken northern and central California may get beneficial rain with this pattern later this weekend and early next week. 

![Expansive heat ridge centered over Texas/Oklahoma next week](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/gfs_z500_vort_us_18_68f663485b.png)

Figured 3: Expansive heat ridge centered over Texas/Oklahoma next week

We're not looking at record-breaking cold out West, but the heat ridge will probably bring near or record-level warmth across parts of the central and eastern U.S. We're talking widespread mid to upper 90s across a large swath of the country. Some areas in the South may even approach 100. Luckily, an incoming trough sweeping across Canada later next week will bring a quick end to the hot weather across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England. Unfortunately, much of the Southern Plains, Mid-South and Southeast will have to deal with the heat a bit longer. 

![Regions that could experience near or at record-breaking temperature levels this upcoming Wednesday, September 21, 2022. Keep in mind that this figure is only showing one of several days that will be very hot.](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/ecm_f129_2de8fb4a06.png)

Hang in there, folks, Make sure you let your family and friends know what to expect next week. Drink water, take care of the elderly, and don't leave pets outside in the heat. 

Regions that could experience near or at record-breaking levels this Wednesday, September 21, 2022. Keep in mind that this figure is only one of many days of high heat levels.

ecm_f129.png

Heat Ridge to Bring Back Summer to the U.S.

Hurricane Kay developed on Monday and is currently gathering strength well off the west-central coast of Mexico as it encounters the warm Eastern Pacific waters and favorable atmospheric conditions to host the strengthening.

Kay will continue to strengthen through midweek as the hurricane moves generally northward with a slight northwesterly component to the track. As Kay moves north, it will bring impacts to the Baja Peninsula midweek through late this week, potentially into the upcoming weekend.

There are some questions on the exact track—just how far east Kay will move. A slight jog farther east would bring even more impacts to the Baja Peninsula whereas a farther west track would lessen the impacts, although impacts would still be realized. Remember that impacts can be felt a couple of hundred miles away from the center of hurricanes.

The track will also play an important factor in the intensity of Kay. If Kay tracks farther east and encounters any land, this would weaken the system whereas Kay's center not facing the high, dry terrain of the Baja Peninsula would keep Kay more robust, and longer.

As Kay continues to move northward throughout the week, the focus turns to what could happen as the system grows closer to southern California. The waters are colder farther north so Kay will eventually undergo a quick decline in intensity but not quick enough to limit impacts to southern California. At this time, the current track, intensity, and speed would allow for Kay's moisture, wind, and swells to impact parts of southern California late this week into the upcoming weekend.

![Kay forecast track](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/144840_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_27df5a156a.png)

While this is good news for the heatwave because it'll help lessen the intensity of the heat for some areas in southern California, the moisture could lead to some flooding, and strong winds could cause problems—we will get to those winds in a second. While moisture will increase rain chances for southern California, especially south of I-10, the favored areas to see the heaviest rain will be the eastern slopes and eastern foothills of the southern California mountains and even into the desert areas. This is because the flow brought in with Kay will force the moist air up the desert floor into the eastern slopes of the mountains creating areas of heavy rain for the east slope and even into some desert areas. This will lead to some areas of flooding. Even the eastern slope of the Sierras could get in on the moisture action over the weekend. 

Those same winds could be a concern for the western slopes of the mountains and inland areas near the west slopes. Because those moist winds, that are generating the rain for eastern areas, will actually enhance and dry out a little as they come through the gaps and down the western slopes. This will create a pseudo-Santa Ana wind event for the western slopes and foothills of the mountains in southern California which could increase the fire danger for these areas. Luckily, despite the Santa Ana concerns, there will be a higher chance for precipitation than normal with the mid and upper-level moisture streaming in from Kay so hopefully, this combats the Santa Ana concern. 

There are still big questions about how much moisture could fall in southern California but right now areas south of I-10 have the best chance to see rain and the eastern slopes and eastern foothills have the best chance to see 1-3 inches of rain with isolated higher totals. This will increase the chance of flooding, along with debris and mudflows late Friday through early Sunday. The counties that will see the biggest impacts are San Diego, Imperial, Riverside, Orange, and San Bernardino. This is where there's the best chance to see the heaviest rain. But even Los Angeles county could see impacts along with Ventura, and Santa Barbara along with the east-facing slopes of the Sierras for southern and central California. 

![Rain potential from Kay](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/blend_acc_precip_california_240_078d93fa38.png)

As mentioned, winds could gust up to 40-50 mph on the western slopes and western foothills and in the gap areas for southern California.

There will also be the potential for increased swells and rip currents along the southern California coast this week making dangerous conditions for beachgoers who are trying to escape the extreme heat this week.

Kay will gradually turn west away from California this weekend and a landfall WILL NOT occur in southern California. As Kay turns west, it will continue to weaken over the cooler waters of the Pacific. This is a unique system and typically hurricanes turn away from California before they get too far north so there is still some uncertainty in this forecast. Please keep checking back for updates.

Moisture in atmosphere from Kay this weekend

Screen Shot 2022-09-06 at 10.51.33 AM.png

Hurricane Kay will impact parts of southern California late this week and this weekend brining an increased flood threat, swells, and even winds that could increase the fire danger.

All blogs

Ian Likely To Hit Florida Panhandle Or Peninsula

Ian forms, expected to become major hurricane

Fiona Forecast Becoming More Clear

Potent early-season storm to bring heavy rain and snow to parts of California

Heat Ridge to Bring Back Summer to the U.S.

Hurricane Kay will impact parts of southern California late this week and this weekend