**Pattern Overview**

A large-scale ridge will build across the northeastern Pacific and will become amplified into the Bering Sea. Downstream, a trough will dig southward into western and central Canada and extend down into the southwestern U.S. The placement of these two large-scale features will favor moderate to strong ridging across the southeastern U.S. 

![Mid-level pattern forecast early december](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/mid_level_pattern_forecast_29cc81c565.png)

This pattern configuration will likely persist from the end of November into the first 5-7 days of December before we see any major pattern change. Model guidance continues to demonstrate agreement and consistency in this forecast.

![Early December temperature anomaly forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/long_range_temp_d0abb1500c.png)

**Weather Temperature and Precipitation Forecast (~November 30–December 6-8, 2022)**

Well below-average, and at times extreme cold will plague the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, and western parts of the northern Great Plains. Below-average temperatures will extend down into the southwest, including over much of California and the Four Corners region. The remainder of the Plains will experience much more variability in their temperatures, going back and forth between bouts of well-below-average and well-above-average temperatures over the forecast period.

Above average, and at times, well-above-average temperatures will generally extend from the Mid-South, Southeast, Tennessee Valley, and up the eastern seaboard into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. An active storm track oriented from the Plains northeastward toward the Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes region will likely ensure a cold front or two sweeps through most of these regions over the forecast period. However, it should be emphasized that temperatures will likely rebound into above-average territory a couple of days after each frontal passage. 

![6-10 temperature outlook nov 30-dec 4, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/6_10_temp_forecast_26f003dc07.png)

![8-14 temperature outlook nov 30-dec 4, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/8_14_temp_forecast_d16452dc54.png)

A series of shortwaves will enter from the Pacific Northwest, drop into the Rockies, dig into the Plains, and then trek northeastward through the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes region. This particular storm track will favor periods of rain and even severe weather across the Mid-South, and eastern parts of the Southern Plains, potentially extending along and south of the Ohio River. Areas to the north of this zone, located between the very cold and very warm air masses, could have some increased risk of icy conditions due to overrunning. The Cascades, Rockies, and Sierra Nevada will have several good chances for snowfall. We will address these wintry weather and severe weather concerns on a system-by-system basis. 

![6-10 precipitation forecast nov 30-dec 4, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/6_10_precip_forecast_de4b989893.png)

![8-14 precipitation forecast dec 2 - dec 8, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/8_14_precip_forecast_c7b9f33a1f.png)

**Highlights (~November 30–December 6-8, 2022)**

Mostly mild conditions across the Southeast, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic, and coastal New England, with intermittent cold, only lasting a couple of days each. Dominant precipitation type: rain

Severe weather chances across the eastern Southern Plains and Mid-South, extending northeastward into areas along and/or south of the Ohio River. 

Active Pacific Northwest pattern with several snow chances in the Rockies, Cascades, and Sierra Nevada.

Wintry weather possible from Central Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and inland New England. Possible that overrunning issues bring icy conditions farther south into the Southern Plains, mid-Mississippi Valley, and maybe Ohio Valley.

6-10 day temperature outlook nov 30-dec 4, 2022

6-10 temp forecast.png

Early December Long-Range Forecast 

**Pattern Overview**

The large-scale pattern over the U.S. has consisted of persistent troughing out west and mostly ridging east of the Rockies. This pattern configuration often results in a stark contrast in temperatures – considerably colder in the West and toasty (and very un-fall-like) elsewhere. Typically, the Great Plains and Midwest sort of get stuck in the middle, with large whiplashes in temperatures and bouts of active weather.

![High temperature forecast and departures from average for Friday, November 2, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Friday_temperature_forecast_6b4eddbde5.jpg)

High temperature forecast and departures from average for Friday, November 2, 2022

A shortwave disturbance, now pushing into the Pacific Northwest, will amplify the western U.S. trough and result in the development of a strong surface low pressure system later this week. This feature will bring a plethora of weather impacts, including snow, flooding, and severe weather, to the U.S. this week and early weekend.

**Impacts and timing**

Snow has already developed across parts of the western Rockies and will continue increasing in coverage eastward tonight and tomorrow. Locations at higher elevations in Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico will exceed a foot of snow, with some localized spots of nearly two feet. Be sure to take plenty of pictures and send them to the snow-starved south!

The shortwave, and its developing surface low, will really start getting its act together in the Friday-Saturday timeframe. Rain, potentially heavy, and storms will develop Friday across parts of the central and southern Plains and move in an east or northeastward direction into the Mid-South and Midwest. 

The greatest flooding risk will generally run in a south-north direction pretty much along and west of the Mississippi River. Some of that heavier rain will make it east of the Mississippi on Saturday, but as the low continues northeastward into the Great Lakes region, the storms will eventually just dissipate. The projected 3-day rainfall totals provide some insight into how far east the heavier amounts will occur and generally where the cut-off will occur.

![3-day rainfall forecast for Thursday-Saturday night](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/3_day_rainfall_forecast_221d748101.jpg)

3-day rainfall forecast for Thursday-Saturday night

![Severe risk Friday into early Saturday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/severe_weather_forecast_793e27ba7d.jpg)

Severe weather probabilities for Friday into early Saturday

**Summary**

Again, the pattern will continue to favor below-average temperatures along and west of the Rockies and well above-average temperatures east of the Great Plains. The Plains and Midwest will alternate back and forth between well-above and below-average temperatures. 

Head to the Rockies, Sierra Nevada, or the Cascades for snow, toward the middle of the country for flooding, severe weather, and crazy weather, or to the east and southeast for balmy and boring weather.  

High temperature forecast and departures from average for Friday, November 2, 2022

Friday temperature forecast.jpg

Flooding and Severe Weather Risk Incoming

Ian has intensified into a strong category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. As Ian begins transforming from tropical to extratropical (just jargon meteorologists use so don't focus on this, impacts will be the same), the wind field has expanded outward from the center of Ian. This means more people see more winds. Hurricane-force winds extend 70 miles outward from the hurricane's center with tropical-storm-force winds extending a whopping 485 miles.

The hurricane will maintain its intensity upon landfall so not much fluctuation (strengthening or weakening) is expected before landfall. The current movement is north at around 9 mph, which will carry Ian into the South Carolina coast and eventually inland today. Landfall is expected Friday afternoon or early evening, Eastern. Because of this, Hurricane Warnings continue for the coast of South Carolina with Tropical Storm Warnings for parts of the Georgia coast and coast of North Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings also extend well inland into eastern Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Ian will accelerate inland later today and begin the weakening process tonight into Saturday.

![Hurricane Ian forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/091540_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind_cef51b0e82.png)

Significant impacts from Ian are expected for coastal areas of South Carolina and much of the Southeast coast with inland impacts too. Storm surge, wind, heavy rain and freshwater flooding, and tornadoes are all possible today into the weekend.

High tide plus storm surge from Ian will send a large storm from coastal northeast Florida all the way north into coastal North Carolina. Many of these areas will see a 2-5 feet storm surge with upwards of 7 feet for coastal South Carolina today.

![Storm surge forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_09_30_at_6_41_55_AM_d4908a59d3.png)

The wind field is expanding with Ian so tropical storm force conditions are expected for much of the Southeast by this afternoon and evening with hurricane conditions along the coast later this morning and afternoon. The winds will lead to power outages and tree damage.

![Tropical storm force wind speed probability](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_09_30_at_6_43_04_AM_b14e423af2.png)

Heavy rain leading to freshwater flooding can be expected across parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic where a widespread 3-6 inches are possible with amounts upwards of 8-12 inches in some areas. The heaviest rain will fall in northeast South Carolina with a second maximum from central South Carolina into North Carolina and southwestern Virginia today through the weekend. 

![Rain forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2022_09_30_at_6_44_28_AM_b862a57264.png)

Isolated tornadoes are also possible especially near the immediate coast today and possibly into Saturday.

Please stay weather aware and listen to your local officials and media for updates!

Screen Shot 2022-09-30 at 6.44.08 AM.png

Significant impacts from Ian are expected with a high storm surge, strong winds, heavy rain and freshwater flooding along with tornadoes. 

Ian to make landfall as a strong category 1 hurricane today in South Carolina

Hurricane Ian will continue to wreak havoc across the Florida peninsula Wednesday tonight and most of Thursday as it slowly treks northeastward across the Florida peninsula. Ian's center should move off the Florida east coast sometime Thursday evening/night. 

I foresee Ian packing a punch, especially across eastern and southeastern parts of Georgia and much of South Carolina later this week into the weekend. I sort of get a sense that residents may be underestimating Ian's potential impacts. 

First, anomalously high pressure is currently building into the Great Lakes on the backside of a sharp trough that's currently digging into New England and the Mid-Atlantic. As Ian makes its way into northeast Florida, a tight pressure gradient will set up across southeast Georgia and lower South Carolina, starting tomorrow. This will result in a prolonged period of strong, gusty winds well before Ian ever makes a second landfall. 

![Surface weather map ](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/euro_ian_7c8365b9ad.png)

Secondly, as Ian emerges over the Atlantic, even if partially, it will regain access to heat energy from the ocean. Even though sea surface temperatures are marginal along the immediate northeast Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coasts, Ian may move far enough offshore to temporarily overlap with the warm Gulf stream. The map below shows the warmer tongue of high sea surface temperatures offshore the Southeast coast (sorry that this is in Celsius!).

![Sea surface temperature map](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/cdas_sflux_sst_watl_1_70ce79d800.png)

Vertical wind shear will at least be moderate, something that's usually a hindrance to tropical cyclone intensification, but like today, Ian will move into a favorable position relative to the jet stream that may allow it to unexpectedly intensify further. 

While over the water Thursday night into Friday, Ian will probably try to re-strengthen into a hurricane, despite the wind shear. 

**Impacts**

Given Ian's size, along with strong high pressure moving into New England, this will set the stages for a prolonged period of strong winds and storm surge. The National Hurricane Center has Ian's second landfall occurring just after 2 pm on Friday in the lowest part of South Carolina. I agree that landfall will probably occur in South Carolina. However, Ian may feel the effect of the departing trough a little longer and manage to make landfall further up the South Carolina coast and later in the afternoon or evening on Friday.

![Latest Ian Forecast from the National Hurricane Center – Wednesday evening](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/AL_092022_forecast_e8cb77b031.png)

Latest Ian Forecast from the National Hurricane Center – Wednesday evening

If you're located in southeast/eastern parts of Georgia and into the Carolinas, plan for potential power outages due to wind, especially Friday into Saturday. Much of southeast and far eastern Georgia, most of South Carolina, and southeastern and south-central parts of North Carolina will probably experience at least tropical storm-force gusts. Even the Virginias may get in on some gusty winds over the weekend. Hurricane-force winds are to be expected at and closer to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts near and to the right of Ian's center. 

Along with the big storm-surge risk as far north as the North Carolina coast, flooding due to heavy rainfall will pose an additional risk. The Carolinas, Virginias, and even into the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic will experience potentially heavy rainfall. There will likely be a sharp cut-off in the higher rainfall amounts somewhere in eastern parts of Georgia, maybe even close to the Georgia/South Carolina border. So right now, Atlanta is pretty much near the hit-or-miss zone. 

Below are the projected rainfall totals over the next 5 days. Notice that a widespread area of 4-6 inches of rain will likely fall with local amounts potentially being considerably higher. The Mid-Atlantic should rack up the rainfall totals as well, because Ian's low pressure will probably stick around through early next week, long after it weakens. 

![5-Day Rainfall Forecast – September 28-October 3, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/p120i_2a9b8c0bbd.png)

5-Day Rainfall Forecast – September 28-October 3, 2022

Please continue to follow us on Firsthand Weather throughout this event. If you're in Georgia, please consider following our [**North Georgia Facebook page**](https://www.facebook.com/georgiaforecasts). If you'd like to get our weekly [**newsletter**](https://firsthandweather.substack.com/?utm_source=discover_search), which we plan to start back soon, don't forget to [**subscribe**](https://firsthandweather.substack.com/?utm_source=discover_search)!

Latest Ian Forecast from the National Hurricane Center – Wednesday evening

AL092022_forecast.png

Ian Coming To Georgia, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic Next

Hurricane Ian will bring destructive storm surge, flooding rains, and severe winds, but you can't deny how breathtaking it looks on [**visible satellite**](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/202209271530_202209271825_g16_meso_band2_iancleareye_labels_74d86210c7.mp4). Something so beautiful can cause so much destruction. 

Hurricane Ian will likely make landfall tomorrow, Wednesday afternoon between Sarasota and Fort Myers Beach. Ian currently sits at category 3 status and could make a run for category 4 before landfall. Recent aircraft and radar data have revealed that Ian has begun to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. Essentially, an outer eyewall has begun to form and will eventually become the primary eyewall as the inner eyewall dies out. This process will result in an expansion of the wind field and maybe a temporary halt in further intensification for a few hours.

![Hurricane Ian Track Forecast – September 27, 2022, 5pm ET](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/AL_092022_forecast_1ff2dee7cb.png)

Hurricane Ian Track Forecast – September 27, 2022, 5pm ET

Ian will begin to encounter greater vertical wind shear on Wednesday, which could also cap intensity some. Whether it's a category 4 strong or strong category 3 at landfall will result in little difference in impacts. 

Along with hurricane-force winds, Florida, along with parts of Georgia and South Carolina, will deal with storm surge, very heavy rainfall amounts, and tornadoes. Ian will begin to slow down, which will further exacerbate these hazards. The highest storm surge will depend highly on Ian's landfall location, but right now, the highest surge should occur between Longboat Key and Charlotte Harbor. Storm surge could reach 12 feet there. Rainfall amounts could reach or even easily exceed 2 feet across a large swath of real estate in the Florida peninsula.

![Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Forecast – September 27, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Fdsg_O7_W_Uo_AEB_Vr3_caeebe6344.png)

Hurricane Ian Storm Surge Forecast – September 27, 2022

![Hurricane Ian 5-Day Rain Forecast – September 27, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Fdsg_Tu_Vs_A_Au6e_D_c8ca9e0708.png)

Hurricane Ian 5-Day Rain Forecast – September 27, 2022

We will continue to post updates throughout the remainder of the event in Florida and will also have updates coming for Georgia and the Carolinas throughout this week. 

Posted: Tuesday, September 27, 2022, 7pm ET

Hurricane Ian Track Forecast – September 27, 2022, 5pm ET

Hurricane Ian Forecast and Visible Satellite Loop

Calling all fall lovers! This is your week. A cold front continues to advance south across the Southeast, leaving behind a drier, cooler airmass. North/northwesterly flow behind the cold front with a building area of high pressure will lead to optimal overnight cooling tonight (Monday) through the end of the week.

You'll feel the chill in the air at night and early in the morning so open up those windows at night and have that cup of coffee outside in the morning. Many areas will get their first taste of fall with temperatures falling into the 40s & lower 50s. A few mid to upper 30s are possible in some of the valleys of the higher terrain of north Georgia, eastern Tennessee, Upstate South Carolina, and western North Carolina. 

**Tuesday morning temperatures**

![Tuesday morning temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NWS_NDFD_Records_2_m_Daily_Low_T_2_m_Daily_Low_T_1_54ce0b9bfa.png)

**Wednesday morning temperatures**

![Wednesday morning temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NWS_NDFD_Records_2_m_Daily_Low_T_2_m_Daily_Low_T_2_8caacaa8d5.png)

**Thursday morning temperatures**

![Thursday morning temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NWS_NDFD_Records_2_m_Daily_Low_T_2_m_Daily_Low_T_3_7fad243cb1.png)

**Friday morning temperatures**

![Friday morning temperatures](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/NWS_NDFD_Records_2_m_Daily_Low_T_2_m_Daily_Low_T_4_dbf1ecc116.png)

Screen Shot 2022-09-26 at 6.12.05 PM.png

Many areas will get their first taste of fall so open up those windows at night and have that cup of coffee outside. 

All blogs

Early December Long-Range Forecast

Flooding and Severe Weather Risk Incoming

Ian to make landfall as a strong category 1 hurricane today in South Carolina

Ian Coming To Georgia, Carolinas, and Mid-Atlantic Next

Hurricane Ian Forecast and Visible Satellite Loop

Chilly, fall mornings this week for the Southeast