A strong Arctic cold front will continue pushing southeastward into the Southern Plains and Mid-South on Sunday and through early next week. Strong, high pressure will build behind the front, undercutting warmer air above the surface. Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft will keep an elevated warm nose established, while surface temperatures drop to or below freezing across parts of the Southern Plains, Mid-South and Tennessee/Kentucky. 

Such a setup in the middle of winter often characterizes a long-duration period of freezing rain and/or sleet, usually orientened in a southwest-to-northeast direction. Furthermore, model guidance often underestimates the strength of the surface cold, usually resulting in icing occurring farther south and southeast. We can already see this when comparing short and medium-range models. Short-range guidance continues to trend farther southeastward with the freezing line across the Southern Plains and Mid-South. 

![Projected temperatures around sunrise Monday morning, Jan. 30, 2023](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/hrrr_T2m_scus_17_4caf426675.png)

Timing, Duration, and Ice Accumlations

A potent shortwave currently digging into southern California and Baja California will slowly move eastward this week. The slow movement of this feature will ensure several rounds of moderate to heavy precipitation move through the areas of interest between now and mid-to-late week.  

Though icing will start Monday for quite a few, the more widespread precipiation will move through in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. The most significant icing risk will occur in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. The freezing line will start pushing back northward on Thursday. So, some southern areas will likely transition back to rain on Thursday.

![Freezing rain forecast Tuesday-Wednesday mornings, Jan 31-Feb 1, 2023](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2023_01_29_at_1_23_03_PM_eff73f9856.png)

Honing in on the Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning timeframe specifically, a large swath of Texas, southern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and western Tennessee have decent probabilities of exceeding freezing rain accumulations of 0.10 inches. Those probabilities may need adjusting upward across western Tennessee, northern Mississippi, and southern  parts of Kentucky. Glacing could occur as far south as northern Louisiana and north-central Mississippi.

![24-h ice accumulations greater than 0.1 inches Tuesday-Wednesday mornings (Jan. 31-Feb.1, 2023)](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2023_01_29_at_12_39_38_PM_4c95ea59c9.png)

The 12z HRRR projects decent icing accumulations even by early Tuesday morning, before the main event. 

![Projected freezing rain accumulations through Tuesday morning, Jan. 31, 2023](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/hrrr_icing_767862ca5c.png)

Winter storm watches will probably start going out soon, before being updated to an advisory or warning. Winter weather advisories could also go out for areas surrounding the primary risk zone for ice glazing. 

Please continue to monitor this icing event throughout the week. Uncertainies on the placement of the freezing line make this a challenging forecast.

Freezing rain forecast Tuesday-Wednesday mornings, Jan 31-Feb 1, 2023

Screenshot 2023-01-29 at 1.23.03 PM.png

Long-Duration Ice Storm Expected from Southern Plains (Dallas) to Mid-South (Little Rock) and Tennessee/Kentucky (Memphis)

A developing storm system will bring wintry precipitation and spring-like thunderstorms to southern parts of the country early this week. This storm system is evolving near the Four Corners region this evening and will continue to strengthen on Monday before moving into the Southern Plains on Tuesday.

Under this storm system and on the backside, it'll have enough dynamics and cold air to produce wet snow on Tuesday from the Texas Panhandle, parts of west Texas, north Texas, and Oklahoma, and eventually spreading into southern Kansas, northwestern Arkansas, and Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.

This is where a few to several inches of snow could fall. Ahead of the winter storm, Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories have already been issued for parts of Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri. Additional winter weather alerts are expected to be issued Monday. Travel will likely be impacted, including parts of I-40, I-35, I-20, I-44, and I-49.

![Winter Weather Alerts for Tuesday](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Winter_Weather_Alerts_for_Tuesday_46faae40e9.png)

This system will also have a warm, spring-like side. On the warmer side of the storm, severe weather is possible on Tuesday from coastal and southeast Texas, central and southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes are possible in these areas.

A limiting factor is a relatively stable air mass over this region currently, but it will destabilize quickly throughout the day Tuesday into Tuesday night supporting the severe weather, including tornadoes. The directional and speed wind shear appears to support an enhanced tornado risk Tuesday evening and night across the northcentral Gulf States.

![Tuesday severe weather risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tuesday_severe_weather_risk_5f38571f53.png)

There's a Level 1/5 and Level 2/5 severe risk Tuesday for these areas. It's possible this gets upgraded to Level 3 on Monday or Tuesday.

The storm will weaken and move toward the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will lessen the severe risk on Wednesday but there's still a low-end severe risk for parts of Alabama and Georgia Wednesday. 

Keep checking back for updates!

Future radar late Tuesday

A developing storm system will bring wintry precipitation and spring-like thunderstorms to southern parts of the country early this week. 

A potent winter storm will deliver snow and severe weather to southern parts of the country this week

From severe weather and Tornado Warnings yesterday to accumulating snow and ice today. The weather has quickly changed from spring-like back to winter.

The big upper-level trough that helped trigger yesterday's severe weather continues to move off to the east. This trough now has brought a northwesterly flow to the area providing colder temperatures to North Georgia. Within this northwesterly flow, a small, fast-moving shortwave will swing into the region. While small, pretty strong lift is associated with this shortwave, which will allow for periodic bands of snow to move into North Georgia today into early Saturday morning.

![Today's snowmaker](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Today_s_snowmaker_9b74df03d3.png)

Because of the cold temperatures and snow, some accumulations are possible in North Georgia. ½ inch to 1 inch of snow can be expected for parts of North Georgia below 1,000 feet with 1 to 2 inches above 1,000 feet. Some of the higher peaks near the Tennesee border could approach 3 inches. Paired with the snow, rain from overnight into the morning has left roadways wet. The wet roadways will turn to ice as temperatures fall well below freezing tonight, making for tricky travel.

![Snow accumulation forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Snow_accumulation_forecast_5806274ba6.png)

Because of the snow and icy roads expected, a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of North Georgia today until 3 a.m. Saturday morning.

![Winter Weather Alerts](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Winter_Weather_Alerts_516994a6aa.png)

Light snow is also expected for North Alabama, Central and East Tennessee, and the mountains of West North Carolina. While mainly light snow is expected, the mountains near the Tennessee-North Carolina border could see over a foot of snow with reduced visibility due to wind and snow. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for these mountains. 

Winter Weather Alerts

Snow is expected for parts of Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and North Carolina today. Accumulations are expected.

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for North Georgia, dangerous travel expected

Eyeing the potential for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms Thursday across parts of the Southeast.

A storm system will send a strong cold front into a warm, humid air mass throughout the day on Thursday. The clashing of these air masses paired with favorable wind shear will allow for thunderstorms to become strong to severe.

Enough ingredients are in place to support isolated tornadoes along with damaging winds. Damaging winds are the main concern but a couple of tornadoes are possible, especially during the afternoon and evening hours across the Southeast.

Thunderstorms initially develop near the cold front across the South near the Mississippi River Thursday morning. Storms will gradually shift east into the Southeast, including the Tennessee Valley, Thursday afternoon and evening. This is when storms will encounter the best ingredients to produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

There's a Level 1 and Level 2 severe risk on Thursday from the Ohio Valley into the South and Southeast. The highest risk extends from south Tennessee to Alabama and Georgia, including Chatanooga, Birmingham, Huntsville, and Atlanta.

![Thursday thunderstorm forecast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Thursday_thunderstorm_forecast_b65c51447f.png)

Thursday thunderstorm forecast

A cold front will trigger severe storms that could produce damaging winds and isolated tornadoes across the Southeast Thursday.

Severe storms and isolated tornadoes possible Thursday for the Southeast

**Key takeaways**

I. Severe storms are possible for the South and Deep South Monday and Tuesday

II. Severe storms will be capable of producing strong tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and isolated flooding

III. Several major Metro areas are under fire, including Dallas, Houston, Tulsa, Little Rock, Memphis, Jackson, Birmingham, and Atlanta

A severe outbreak is possible Monday and Tuesday that could bring widespread severe weather to parts of the South. The potential hazards are tornadoes (a few of which could be strong, and long-lived), damaging winds, large hail, and even flooding as a strong storm system sweeps through. 

This storm system is bringing in a potent cold front into an almost tropical, warm, humid airmass, and paired with favorable directional and speed sheer to create a susceptible environment for dangerous thunderstorms beginning early Monday afternoon, continuing through the overnight hours Monday and throughout the day on Tuesday. During this timeframe, several major Metro areas will be included within a severe risk area.

**Monday**

Showers and weak, isolated thunderstorms have already fired up around and east of the I-35 corridor in southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. This activity will continue to increase in coverage and intensity Monday afternoon and evening with severe storms likely across eastern Oklahoma, northern and eastern Texas, east into Arkansas, southern Missouri, Louisiana, western Mississippi, western Tennessee, and western Kentucky.

These areas are under Level 1 (out of 5), Level 2, and Level 3 severe risk Monday afternoon, evening, and night. Widespread severe weather is expected within these risk areas and nighttime tornadoes are possible Monday night, some of which could be stronger than EF 2 (out of 5). 

![Monday severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Monday_severe_risk_a3017d344e.jpeg)

**Tuesday**

The severe threat continues overnight Monday into Tuesday for the Deep South and Dixie Alley, including eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central Tennessee, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and western Georgia. Tuesday will yet again feature the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes (some tornadoes could be strong), damaging winds, large hail, and isolated areas of flooding. 

![Tuesday severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/Tuesday_severe_risk_22a18eb220.jpeg)

**Beyond Monday and Tuesday**

The severe threat continues into Wednesday for eastern Georgia and the Carolinas but the severe threat appears to lessen at this point with the main hazard being damaging wind gusts. 

Make sure you're weather aware over the next couple of days if you live in the South of Deep South, have reliable sources to receive weather warnings from, and have a shelter plan in place in case a warning is issued for your location.

Monday severe risk

1. Severe storms are possible for the South and Deep South Monday and Tuesday
2. Severe storms will be capable of producing strong tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and isolated flooding
3. Several major Metro areas are under fire, including Dallas, Houston, Tulsa, Little Rock, Memphis, Jackson, Birmingham, and Atlanta

A severe outbreak is possible with strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail over the next two days

An active weather pattern with clashing winter and spring air masses will deliver rounds of severe storms that could produce tornadoes over the next few days. 

Severe weather and tornadoes were recorded Monday night and this morning (Tuesday) in western Oklahoma and northern Texas. As of Tuesday morning, Tornado watches are currently in effect for southern Oklahoma, northern Texas, and southwestern Arkansas. Additional tornado watches are expected throughout the day Tuesday as severe storms advance east from the Southern Plains into the South. That severe threat is also possible during the nighttime hours Tuesday and predawn hours Wednesday.

The severe threat Tuesday and Tuesday night will exist for southern Oklahoma, northern Texas, central Texas, eastern Texas; central and southern Arkansas; all of Louisiana; all of Mississippi; and western Alabama. The severe risk will shift from west to east throughout the day Tuesday into the overnight hours Tuesday. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are all possible with the strongest storms. A couple of strong tornadoes cannot be ruled out, favoring eastern Texas, Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

**Tuesday's severe risk**

![Tuesday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/spcd1cat_conus_812855e6ad.png)

The severe risk continues to shift south and east into Wednesday with the northern Gulf Coast under fire for severe storms and possible tornadoes on Wednesday from southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out on Wednesday too for these areas along with damaging winds and hail.

**Wednesday's severe risk**

![Wednesday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/spcd2cat_conus_c1e7ec539e.png)

As the storm system continues to advance east, the severe threat continues into Thursday for the Southeast, including southeastern Georgia, northern and central Florida, and the eastern Carolinas. All modes of severe weather are possible including damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. 

**Thursday's severe risk**

![Thursday's severe risk](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/spcd3cat_conus_3651322cc0.png)

It's an important reminder that tornadoes can and do occur in the month of December. Please have a couple of reliable sources to receive weather warnings. Your local television station and the National Weather Service are two trusted sources to receive weather warnings, including tornado warnings. It will also be beneficial to have a shelter plan in place for your family and pets in case a warning is issued.

Screen Shot 2022-12-13 at 7.51.28 AM.png

An active weather pattern with clashing winter and spring air masses will deliver rounds of severe storms that could produce tornadoes over the next few days from Texas to the Carolinas. 

All blogs

Long-Duration Ice Storm Expected from Southern Plains (Dallas) to Mid-South (Little Rock) and Tennessee/Kentucky (Memphis)

A potent winter storm will deliver snow and severe weather to southern parts of the country this week

Winter Weather Advisory in effect for North Georgia, dangerous travel expected

Severe storms and isolated tornadoes possible Thursday for the Southeast

A severe outbreak is possible with strong tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail over the next two days

Severe storms and tornadoes to impacts the South over the next few days