The Atlantic is quiet right now but that could change over the next few days.

An upper-level trough will dig south across the East Coast of the lower-48 over the weekend, sending a cold front south into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

![Upper level weather pattern late this weekend](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/index_bf205632d5.png)

This trough and associated cold front placement could be the perfect tropical breeding environment as an area of low pressure develops near the Carolinas coast. 

The developing area of low pressure could acquire tropical characteristics as it encounters the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and an environment with minimal shear.

![Current SSTs](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/cdas_sflux_sst_atl_1_1_1bef0424a2.png)

There's increased support from the guidance of the low pressure becoming tropical as it moves off the coast of the Carolinas late weekend into early next week.

![eps_tropcyc_prob_20_conus_120.png](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/eps_tropcyc_prob_20_conus_120_0ec6b9897b.png)

If this system develops into a tropical cyclone, it'll likely remain weak and move away from the U.S.

Regardless of the system moving away from the Carolinas coast, increased rain chances are expected this weekend for the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as the aforementioned cold front moves through the region.

Screen Shot 2022-07-06 at 2.20.40 PM.png

A tropical system could develop off the coast of the Carolinas this weekend.

Tropical troubles brewing off the Carolina coast

Several rounds of severe weather will move along the periphery of high-pressure ridging in the coming days. A southeast ridge, along with an amplifying ridge building into the Northern Plains, has placed the Northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes region, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic in a favorable zone for severe storms. 

![High pressure ridge over Southeast](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/gfs_tues_july_5_b605a48e7d.png)

A cluster of severe storms has already developed across South Dakota, which will continue on a southeastward trajectory along the ridge periphery today into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has a heightened severe risk across western portions of the Corn Belt, but severe storm chances extend all the way to the Mid-Atlantic region. The primary risk with this sort of setup is straight-line, damaging winds, heavy rain, and lots of lightning. If these storms remain organized long enough, it’s not out of the question that derecho criteria be reached. The current pattern certainly supports that possibility. 

![Today's severe weather risk – Jul 5, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/spcd1cat_conus_b2109c187d.png)

**Today's severe weather risk – Jul 5, 2022**

The Southeast ridge will retrograde westward into the Southern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, as a trough digs over eastern Canada. This will result in a slight southern shift in the severe weather risk. Notice how the marginal and slight risk zones extend more to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on both days, even as far south as South Carolina and northern Georgia. Again, the primary risk will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

![Tomorrow's severe weather risk – Jul 6, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/spcd2cat_conus_a188c7f56c.png)

**Tomorrow's severe weather risk – Jul 6, 2022**

![Thursday's severe weather risk – Jul 7, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/spcd3cat_conus_2698618409.png)

**Thursday's severe weather risk – Jul 7, 2022**

Looking at the expected rainfall totals over the next 5 days, we see that much of Texas/Oklahoma remains very dry, thanks to the retrograding ridge. Ridging won’t have as much of a stronghold over the Southeast, opening the door for the near-daily development of storms, especially later in the week. Then there’s the zone of heavier rainfall expected from the Corn Belt to the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas this week, due to embedded disturbances moving along the ridge periphery as already discussed. So, heavier rainfall totals will be a bit more widespread across those regions, whereas the remainder of the Southeast and Florida will experience a more localized heavy rain risk. 

![5-day rainfall forecast – Jul 5-10, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/5_day_rainfall_forecast_70d5cf6240.gif)

**5-day rainfall forecast – Jul 5-10, 2022**

5-day rainfall forecast – Jul 5-10, 2022

5-day rainfall forecast.gif

Heavy storms to bring flooding and damaging wind risk 

An omega block (a ridge sandwiched between two troughs) will persist across the lower 48 this week, mostly remaining centered across the heart of the nation. As a result, temperatures will stay quite hot across most of the Great Plains and the Midwest, while cooler temperatures will persist across the western U.S. and over New England. 

![July 4, 2022 High Temperatures and Departures from Average](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/5_KM_NDFD_MAX_DPT_2022070318_f030_43093ab1e7.jpg)

July 4, 2022 High Temperatures and Departures from Average

![Wednesday, July 6, 2022 High Temperatures and Departures from Average](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/5_KM_NDFD_MAX_DPT_2022070318_f078_2fc3a9f03e.jpg)

Wednesday, July 6, 2022 High Temperatures and Departures from Average

Texas and Oklahoma’s position underneath the ridge will keep both states mostly dry in the coming days. Disturbances will ride along the periphery of the omega block, bringing numerous days of stormy weather across the Northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley. In fact, any organized cluster of storms that develops poses a damaging wind risk.

![dercho_pattern.jpg](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/dercho_pattern_73a4ca8a5b.jpg)
 
Retrogradation of the ridge to the west will allow storm chances to stay in the forecast across much of the Southeast, especially across the Carolinas and along/near the Gulf coast. Temperatures will feel typical for summer in the region, but above-average moisture in the air will allow heat indices to reach uncomfortable levels this week. 

New Mexico, eastern Arizona, and Colorado will remain in an active pattern for stormy weather throughout the week, thanks to their position to the west of the ridge. As the ridge builds westward later in the week, a warming trend will occur, not only in the Southwest but also across much of the Rockies. 

![7-day rainfall forecast: July 4-11, 2022](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/7day_rainfall_64b737dbb3.jpg)

7-day rainfall forecast: July 4-11, 2022

You can get a detailed 7-day weather forecast right from our [home page](https://firsthandweather.com)! We'll be improving this feature this week by adding icons and rainfall probabilities. 

July 4, 2022 High Temperatures and Departures from Average

5KM_NDFD_MAX_DPT_2022070318_f030.jpg

Omega Block Pattern To Support Hot and Stormy Weather This Week For Many

Temperatures will be seasonal or a touch below average over the coming days. Highs will largely be in the 80s with morning lows in the 60s. It will be sticky during the afternoons with high humidity but we’re used to that this time of the year. Isolated storms accompany the high humidity thanks to a weak boundary near I-20.

![ga_tp_06282200-scaled.jpeg](https://firsthandweather.s3.amazonaws.com/ga_tp_06282200_scaled_ce3d1577be.jpeg)

ga_tp_06282200-scaled.jpeg

North Georgia and Atlanta Metro Video Forecast: June 27, 2022

The next couple of days is shaping up to be seasonally warm with high in the upper 80s and lower 90s along with lows in the 60s & 70s. Isolated storms are possible over the next couple of afternoons.

ga_maxt_06262212.jpeg

North Georgia and Atlanta Metro Video Forecast: June 25, 2022

Another toasty day is expected Thursday with temperatures well into the 90s, feels like in the 100s for many folks. Slightly cooler temperatures arrive Friday into the weekend as a weak cold front sneaks into the area Thursday night.

All blogs

Tropical troubles brewing off the Carolina coast

Heavy storms to bring flooding and damaging wind risk

Omega Block Pattern To Support Hot and Stormy Weather This Week For Many

North Georgia and Atlanta Metro Video Forecast: June 27, 2022

North Georgia and Atlanta Metro Video Forecast: June 25, 2022

North Georgia and Atlanta Metro Video Forecast: June 22, 2022